Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[feb1991blizzard]

Uninspiring in the main - Anticyclonic week 3, high anoms pull west afterwards but really a very week signal after week 3 so all options still on the table for late Nov IMO.

[Derecho]

18z shows a split vortex and the cold nudging into eastern Scandi, not sure if the cold can be pulled west on this run but some more interesting synoptic patterns starting to appear for sure.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Uninspiring in the main - Anticyclonic week 3, high anoms pull west afterwards but really a very week signal after week 3 so all options still on the table for late Nov IMO.

Doesn't sound too bad from what you have said. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Doesn't sound too bad from what you have said. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Those are week 3 and 4 - pointless putting 5 or 6 up - practically no signal at that range......     

Week 2 as per advertised on shorter range models.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Those are week 3 and 4 - pointless putting 5 or 6 up - practically no signal at that range......     

Week 2 as per advertised on shorter range models.

Cheers Feb. I see what you mean. This just screams uncertainty to me. That's a good thing at this juncture. It's the opposite to the certainty of zonal. 

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters still far from benign. D12 - take your pick from straight southerlies, Bartlet high, or cold easterlies with euro trough underneath, or west based - NAO, you name it it's in there. The key theme remains the same - some sort of 500mb ridge is going north just before mid month, don't be surprised if it ends up somewhere rather different to what the ops are showing right now. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Uninspiring 18z GEFS suite.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Uninspiring 18z GEFS suite.

Yes quite a few have the high nearby but struggle to get it in the right place for us to get the cold air, P1 about the best of the bunch   

NAVGEM not too bad with the high trying to link between scandi / Greenland  think the models will be struggling for a good few days trying to work out the position this high is going to take but  it ends up in the right place for us to get an early taste of winter. 

[Newberryone]

00z Ecm looking pretty unsettled it has to be said all the way out to day 10 with little if any sign of high pressure suppressing the zonal train to any great extent. Potential therefore for significant enough  volumes of rain in the days ahead I should think. Perhaps a hint towards the end of the outlook period of a general rise in pressure from the southwest. Frost doesn’t look like being an issue either throughout this period.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Newberryone

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So days 6-10 GFS, UKMO, GEM have high pressure to our North and NE v ECM which doesn’t.  

 

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

No cold pooling on the GFS however the day 8 and 9 chart on the 0z is a stonker. A shaped high over Scandinavia and an undercut as far as western Europe.

[Froze were the Days]

Nothing to get excited about in general looking at both GFS and ECM...love to see the fabled foggy high appear this month but they seem to be as rare as hen's teeth!

[ICE COLD]

GFS 6z at T177 really punching high pressure into the pole . The PV won't  be happy if this carries on . 

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GFS 6z at T177 really punching high pressure into the pole . The PV won't  be happy if this carries on . 

Yes but the problem is the high sinks from Greenland into Russia keeping the cold way out to the east. I'd been hoping we'd see more of the high pressure sticking to Greenland rather then sinking... but we haven't seen that yet unfortunately.

Looks like we may get more of a November 2011 type pattern with warm southerlies on the wrong side of the high.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[Leo97t]

We can't really hope for anything until we get a good signal for Greenland heights and get rid of high pressure to the south of us

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z has the high a bit further west so drier for the UK however it also has the high further south as well so we get less of an undercut. 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS6z has the high a bit further west so drier for the UK however it also has the high further south as well so we get less of an undercut. 

Beginning to wonder if there is too much energy in the Atlantic at the moment, too much energy in the northern arm to allow for anything but a sinking high..

Suspect the meto suggestion of a cold high for 2nd half of Nov is on shaky ground but i will be delighted if the signal, however weak, is maintained today..

 

Edited November 2, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Methuselah]

Forgive me, Father, for I have sinned...My hunt for cold has gotten so desperate that I've been lamppost-watching on TV!

[mb018538]

GFS 6z is another stinker which ends with the strong PV we are sadly all accustomed to:



No clear signal at all @ day 15 on the ECM ensembles either:



Westerlies of some sort the favoured outcome.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Forgive me, Father, for I have sinned...My hunt for cold has gotten so desperate that I've been lamppost-watching on TV!

looking at warmest first half of Nov on record? just looking at latest GFS, probably end up cooler/wetter though away from far NW

Edited November 2, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

GFS 6z is another stinker which ends with the strong PV we are sadly all accustomed to:



No clear signal at all @ day 15 on the ECM ensembles either:



Westerlies of some sort the favoured outcome.

Those ecm charts do not indicate westerlies to me. Northern blocking yes, westerlies no. 

[Yarmy]

Its new improved (?) sibling on the other hand:

 

 

Edited November 2, 2018 by Yarmy

[Methuselah]

Based on experience, and the charts you peeps have kindly posted, I think November 2 is way to early for getting despondent...I'll be interested in seeing how Europe's snowcover stands, one month from now.

[Yarmy]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Based on experience, and the charts you peeps have kindly posted, I think November 2 is way to early for getting despondent...I'll be interested in seeing how Europe's snowcover stands, one month from now.

Agree. At this stage, I'm mostly interested (since this is the hunt for cold thread) to see if we can get enough wave activity flux propagating upwards to disrupt the Strat vortex and then see if we get a corresponding downwelling for when winter proper begins. That's on the scale of several weeks though.