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Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

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Jonathan Rhodri Roberts Enthusiast

Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Orographic lift usually to blame....hence the same spots like shap in Cumbria etc get deluged, and east of the higher ground is much drier.

That usually plays a big part, to give an example storm Callum brought 150-200mm over higher ground in south Wales but here on the coast in Porthcawl only about 45-50mm fell. GFS shows 130+mm in Swansea, personally I think it's overdoing the rainfall or we'd be looking at 400+mm over higher ground 

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
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Posted

I spy with my little eye . Some GEFS members going pretty cold towards the end , touching -10 850s . It's all from the north too as per METO long range forecast . I know it's clutching at straws but it's better than not clutching at all

IMG_2749.PNG

IMG_2750.PNG

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

12z showing incredible JS meandering....this is extreme.  Straight Southerlies from well into the African Continent.  Which means northerlies from S Greenland for Canaries.....

BFTP

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted

GFS is excellent longer term...it's like a massive spoke being stuck in the wheel of the trop vortex, and by the end of the run we can see this having a bigger effect on the strat vortex than we've seen progged recently.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS is excellent longer term...it's like a massive spoke being stuck in the wheel of the trop vortex, and by the end of the run we can see this having a bigger effect on the strat vortex than we've seen progged recently.

I agree with you, i thought you preferred the ridge much further east than that though, in your analogue's the other day.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I agree with you, i thought you preferred the ridge much further east than that though, in your analogue's the other day.

Given what we've seen recently, beggars can't be choosers!

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
7 hours ago, carinthian said:

The North Atlantic jet shown from (gfs) below continues to buckle against the strong European Block.  The latest ECM models shows a strengthening of the ridge by Mid Month. So robust it is , that the buckle in the jet sends it into almost towards Sub Tropic jet location. Its not really unusual to see this block at this time of year, however, the failure of the Polar Jet to push into Europe in its normal path is a notable feature , it should normally be powerful enough as we enter the seasonal change in increasingly upper air temp differentials to make an impact into the large block. (whether the weakening of the jet is due to GW is another subject ) but is being touted by some experts as a cause.  Anyway, back to our longer range thoughts, still basically the same and a front loaded winter not being dismissed, even with this very warm Autumnal spell lasting till mid -month. Ridging of high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles still being featured with colder weather for the last 10 days of the month.

GFSOPNH00_240_22.png

Latest GFS now showing what the earlier ECM run had and that's the strengthening of the European Ridge by Mid -Month with fronts heading back west from the UK . From a colder point of view we will need this process to develop further with the ridge starting to head poleward and the buckle jet continuing sending Atlantic trough/ lows in the direction of Iberia. Now we wait to see if this evening ECM run continues with this support !

 C

overview_240.jpg

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

The GEM at T240 showing a huge block over Scandi, good to see this further north than recent model output, puts pressure on the vortex, which we need to maintain, meanwhile southerlies for the UK:

image.thumb.jpg.131b04147636fb8ed8d4652027fcb418.jpg

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
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Posted (edited)

Certainly plenty of evidence to suggest the atmosphere may be conducive toward mid/high lat blocking last week of November and into December.

The pattern is already amplified, though consistently being overwhelmed, but this looks set to change as we head toward and into December.

In reality we usually have to wait a little longer to get blocking in the right places for cold but December looks to have a good chance of some cold spells for now.

 

Edited by Mucka
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM day 9 interesting...

ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

Yes that big low does seem to be pushing up a ridge at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.da6ba8e6ab1094df92ae2b9c76e01a1f.jpg

Bigger story maybe the stressed nature of the vortex, another option the JMA at T192:

image.thumb.jpg.71ce9078c981ff2fadd2126e28e7a99e.jpg

Quite a few different options in the day 10 range, yes most of the blocks aren't in favourable places for UK cold, but I'm musing here that this broad setup could change at some point quite quickly, wouldn't rule out a sudden switch to cold well before any strat related evolution.

Edited by Mike Poole
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

EC picking up a new signal for high pressure to be more pronounced than seemed likely only a few days ago.

Still an angry looking low sweeping into the North Atlantic by day 10 but perhaps the Azores low will be of benefit ?

Edit Absolutely amazing call from Exeter if this run is on the money as they have been suggestive of HP having more influence mid month!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Indian Summer on the ECM! 

Could be mild through the day but i would imagine temps will drop quite sharply at night, not sure it could be classed as Indian summer though..

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
16 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM pretty interesting at Day 10 is this the start of the blocking that wedge building in Iceland area

ECM1-240.gif

ECH1-240.gif

Ah! The all important wedgy. Oh we have missed you

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Could be mild through the day but i would imagine temps will drop quite sharply at night, not sure it could be classed as Indian summer though..

Should be some dense fog as well ☺️ 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I can't wait for NW's upcoming snow-chasing trips to Day 10...I have my ticket already!

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Could be mild through the day but i would imagine temps will drop quite sharply at night, not sure it could be classed as Indian summer though..

GFS is though 

h850t850eu.png

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