Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS is though 

Oh! Since when did the gfs know anything?

 

[WalsallWeather123]

19 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh! Since when did the gfs know anything?

 

When it predicts snow it's the only model you see on here

Edited November 6, 2018 by WalsallWeather123

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Oh! Since when did the gfs know anything?

 

it dosen't, it will be wrong,

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

When it predicts snow it's the only model you see on here

I'm at a bit of a loss as to which model i trust the most if i'm honest- they all have flaws, my favourite would have to be UKMO, followed by EC and then GFS.

Thats just my opinion i guess.

[WalsallWeather123]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm at a bit of a loss as to which model i trust the most if i'm honest- they all have flaws, my favourite would have to be UKMO, followed by EC and then GFS.

Thats just my opinion i guess.

Last year ICON was the best, IMO, believe it or not

[Allseasons-Si]

Let's throw a spanner into the works of the pv

on a more serious note the charts today from gfs/gefs and ecm 12z are a lot better than yesterday's wrt more amplification.

[Mike Poole]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm at a bit of a loss as to which model i trust the most if i'm honest- they all have flaws, my favourite would have to be UKMO, followed by EC and then GFS.

Thats just my opinion i guess.

Performance varies, but currently for the NH at day 5, ECM wins, UKMO 2nd, FV3 third:

At day 10 FV3 first ECM 2nd and GFS and GEM tied third:

Re the comment about snow forecast from @WalsallWeather123 you'll see a lot more charts from GFS then because precipitation and snow charts are publicly available, they aren't for ECM, UKMO.  And if the snow event is actually going to happen, shorter range models like ARPEGE and HIRLAM then come into play.

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by Mike Poole

[WalsallWeather123]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Performance varies, but currently for the NH at day 5, ECM wins, UKMO 2nd, FV3 third:

At day 10 FV3 first ECM 2nd and GFS and GEM tied third:

Re the comment about snow forecast from @WalsallWeather123 you'll see a lot more charts from GFS then because precipitation and snow charts are publicly available, they aren't for ECM, UKMO.  And if the snow event is actually going to happen, shorter range models like ARPEGE and HIRLAM then come into play.

 

GFS snow charts are ridiculous though. They also show sleet as snow and overestimate accumulation yet they still are widely used and treated as gold standard. Surely people should know this by now!

[Mike Poole]

24 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

GFS snow charts are ridiculous though. They also show sleet as snow and overestimate accumulation yet they still are widely used and treated as gold standard. Surely people should know this by now!

Yes, indeed they are, the snow depth ones, but the precipitation ones are OK. Between that day 6 and day 3 type window, they are the best we have, until as I said, the higher resolution models become available, whether they are better is a moot point, they probably are better, last 'spring' (Beast from the East) HIRLAM did well, and as you said in an earlier post, ICON (although not a short range model) was on the money last year.  Let's see what happens this year!

Edited November 6, 2018 by Mike Poole

[jules216]

Looking at the extended EPS, between 168h-240h we have the euro high on the move and it wants to relocate more towards south of Scandinavia, we are loosing pesky heights around the Black Sea area and cold pool starts to extend in to that region almost instantly, by 360h colder T2 anomalies extend as far as Hungary/Slovakia, eastern Ukraine/Romania gets as low as -5 below average by then 

[JeffC]

I think with all models showing precipitation there is a big difference between precision and accuracy.  I.e. they can show precise ppn values but are inaccurate in position or quantity upon verification. Hence they can only ever be a guide as to potential ppn...

[damianslaw]

Whilst the immediate prospects perhaps don't bode well for a quick exchange to something colder, the trend appears to be for a more amplified flow through next week, and whilst we may have to endure a period of mild southerly airstream this would aid warm air advection into the Pole, which could force the trough back west and allow it disrupt, heights would then likely build to our north and hence a colder pattern for later in the month. Patience I feel is needed. Perhaps take a break for a week and some of the colder building blocks may start to come into the reliable timeframe.

Rather have this pattern now than in a months time.

[Mike Poole]

For those watching the 18z evolution, is that low over Eastern USA going to pump up a ridge like the ECM did?  I think yes, GFS at T192:

[Allseasons-Si]

Re:- my post earlier about more amp

in 24 hrs the 18z gfs

compare

yesterdays>todays 216/192

this block is stubborn,will it be our friend or foe?

friends

 

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

For those watching the 18z evolution, is that low over Eastern USA going to pump up a ridge like the ECM did?  I think yes, GFS at T192:

Yep - certainly is - stonking ridge between GL and Scandi coming up here.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

We are on the cusp of something special here guys,while we have strong +ve height's in our vicinity(looking at the gefs ens) only time will tell for a retrogression/displacement of this and bingo

i will settle for cold and frosty days in the next couple of weeks.

btw,where is frosty?

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yep - certainly is - stonking ridge between GL and Scandi coming up here.

 

Certainly looks like it, here at T252 and T276:

 

Let's keep watching, one of these blocks will eventually land right!

Edited November 6, 2018 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

What a strange looking view 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hmmmmmmm....some changes afoot and potentially a cold pattern developing for last 3rd/backend of Nov.  Deep FI so very steady as she goes. The JS meandering is just ‘solar’ insane

 

BFTP

[ICE COLD]

Getting very interesting 

[feb1991blizzard]

Where is nick sussex as well, never known him not be on here posting at this time of year, no matter how good or crap the output is for cold.

[northwestsnow]

18z is now beginning to look similar to EC, temps mild at first then becoming gradually cooler last third of November.

[Met4Cast]

Huh.. the models are showing the block being stronger than originally suggested.. huh, the models are back to showing a route to potential cold for the end of the month!

A rocky few days with some zonal patterns but good signs from the models today, lets hope it’s picked up the signal for heights to our North last 3rd of the month. 

Re: Strat jet strenghtening, yeah usually that’d be a worry but with the disconnect still going strong it shouldn’t matter too much, I suspect the blocks shown on the models should they develop, will serve to weaken the Strat vortex anyway. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Huh.. the models are showing the block being stronger than originally suggested.. huh, the models are back to showing a route to potential cold for the end of the month!

A rocky few days with some zonal patterns but good signs from the models today, lets hope it’s picked up the signal for heights to our North last 3rd of the month. 

Re: Strat jet strenghtening, yeah usually that’d be a worry but with the disconnect still going strong it shouldn’t matter too much, I suspect the blocks shown on the models should they develop, will serve to weaken the Strat vortex anyway. 

Yes, big improvement on the GEFS today, late in FI yes, but a good number either show Northern blocking or something which would lead to Northern blocking.

And judging by this, an increasing number of eps do so as well.

Edited November 6, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Huh.. the models are showing the block being stronger than originally suggested.. huh, the models are back to showing a route to potential cold for the end of the month!

A rocky few days with some zonal patterns but good signs from the models today, lets hope it’s picked up the signal for heights to our North last 3rd of the month. 

Re: Strat jet strenghtening, yeah usually that’d be a worry but with the disconnect still going strong it shouldn’t matter too much, I suspect the blocks shown on the models should they develop, will serve to weaken the Strat vortex anyway. 

Yes i agree, i'm a bit more optimistic we are not staring down a sustained Atlantic barrage today, 

There is a sustained negative anomaly developing across the the west coast of Portugal on both EC and GFS at around day 9/10 which is a big help , i think thats one of the key changes today..

 

Edited November 6, 2018 by northwestsnow