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Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Back end of the gfs is broadly in line with the updated ec 46 for week 3. A wintry look about the set up (though no proper coldie excitement re the date) - anyway, Europe seem likely to have a cold November, especially to our east under blocking.  This is a consistent theme. December coming into view and as it does so, ec46 looks like the Atlantic will be trying to push ne into n Europe against that euro blocking. too far away to draw any conclusions ..........

Thanks for your thoughts Blue, i do enjoy reading them :)

00Z runs look dry / cool , esp at night as we head through the 2nd half of October.Im off to Eastern Poland early November, as you alluded to, that part of the world could be cold come late Oct , i expect to be packing some woolies this time, last year was VERY mild across Poland etc right through and beyond christmas, something tells me this year will be very different.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm amplifies the high further west next week resulting in the trough dropping down over the UK resulting in some wet and windy weather and a cold northerly. Of course some minor adjustments would alter this

t174.thumb.png.ef75380269b072d9460e2847463bc27b.pngTv.thumb.png.9d2a54deb09fc86dbf4da6323abcaf4a.pnga.thumb.png.c8c93c47723f5407c6be51d45dca9741.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
15 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm amplifies the high further west next week resulting in the trough dropping down over the UK resulting in some wet and windy weather and a cold northerly. Of course some minor adjustments would alter this

t174.thumb.png.ef75380269b072d9460e2847463bc27b.pngTv.thumb.png.9d2a54deb09fc86dbf4da6323abcaf4a.pnga.thumb.png.c8c93c47723f5407c6be51d45dca9741.png

Yes knocks - looks like we need to get used to that mid Atlantic feature for a few weeks to come as it waxes and wanes ......... and likely to go on a trip to Greenland for a week or so .......

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A consistent theme of the evolution of late of late has been to lose the vortex lobe over N. Canada/Greenland area with the evolution to a slack area of low pressure over the Arctic with the subsequent adjustments to the ridging of the subtropical high in the Atlantic and European trough. Certainly nowhere near enough unanimity on this to justify further comment except that, whatever, temps likely to be below average.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.thumb.png.8c78d2c1d285c4acff787dab86af7767.png7-12.thumb.png.6716557f61dc236b3b6a2b6383e7b058.png814day_03.thumb.gif.3cc208aa843511804fe44e73009f08aa.gif

And the lower strat. moving in that direction

100_nh_stanom_31.thumb.png.ad6a9e393230858a1862d9537f9f5daf.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Before the possibility of whether a Northerly occurs later next week (could just easily ignore the U.K and sneak off to the East), the models, such as the GFS 12Z, show quite a fair amount of settled weather, with some bright spells at times, especially the further South your are in the U.K. All thanks to High Pressure not wanting to give up the ghost! 

A5FCCF09-EC39-4374-8471-7378A0D84BE3.thumb.png.75ac107dc3e8740b235734486ac43b62.png

8153338C-DB38-45E7-9433-19BCC1B590DB.thumb.png.7c4b7a15717428e350634ca85b223802.png

32CF7D39-5A77-4899-82E1-1A24592ED678.thumb.png.07c88d100297872485bfde78f0ead0f3.png

DE72349B-0C6B-49A5-BF27-B496DE559A42.thumb.png.1a4e98a9420802f0df4e3cb26f77b679.png

C33A3815-35B3-4C70-8A91-73B7281189D4.thumb.png.84ba78fa0d35f16a7d92675a0cadb004.png

However, with the High Pressure becoming more focused to the West or South-West of the UK towards next week, the best of the driest, brightest conditions will probably become more concentrated over South-Western areas. Mild (and perhaps warm) at times in sunnier periods. And again, especially towards the South and generally a little bit cooler towards the North. But chilly with some frost and mist at night (especially helped by the fairly slack flow at times). Somewhat windier over North-Western UK in general.

Some rain likely this Sunday, mostly over Northern and Western parts of the U.K where it will be the heaviest, as shown on the GFS UK Precipitation Charts.

5E23A4F7-D99B-4A05-ABEF-2F4C3CE9CCC5.thumb.png.4b406381a4eb01e3bd585c94edce3718.png

2F356A1E-3ACC-4EF0-BF7D-13DD753EF779.thumb.png.af99bab4ad8fd0ccb57977c1a59f104b.png

A9D1978B-A2CB-4EAD-A3F4-EB99E8546C43.thumb.png.3986cacdba01527589b16ad88bd9e55e.png

Still looks as though the rain will lose some of its power as it pushes South-East through the U.K. Southern areas unlikely to see much rain at all. 

Beyond mid-next week and it may turn much chillier with High Pressure amplifiying in the Atlantic.  But gonna put the lid on things regarding that in here for now, what with this being the general discussion thread.

Apart from that, looking quite calm and settled, especially for Southern parts, for the next few days or so. Pretty amazing, really, the intensity of that High Pressure system. Some great weather for some long strolls (if that’s your sort of thing!) ?‍♂️?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Some subtle changes with the ecm this evening as it disrupts the trough at the end of next week, although still tracking the cold air down over the UK Saturday before strongly building the ridge behind which immediately comes under pressure from the next trough exiting Canada as it drops south east to the west of the UK. A long way from being sorted.

t168.thumb.png.b2004af9ac853b283a2835d53486a28f.pngt192.thumb.png.c866f554d26382a1c2caec296845fb21.pngtanom.thumb.png.2c84b9857e0c081e8d5c7ff36d1ba2f9.png

t228.thumb.png.05d8e91537cf11ee9619cab9f8a5c6df.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

So very briefly following on from the more detailed short range. On Friday a deep upper cold trough drops south over the north east of N. America which amplifies the downstream high,trough complex. This initiates a cold northerly over the UK. particularly windy in northern and eastern regions and thus a very cold weekend with snow over the Scottish mountains. Very unpleasant

gfs_z500_vort_natl_28.thumb.png.04b4dd5f9507b00c67735919d5a00111.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_32.thumb.png.2b2cd5ddf27d933fe273716cb424a003.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_36.thumb.png.c9b9c29b376199c8c7e1171dce5b5a79.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm still amplifying the high further west next week and although the trough drops south Friday/Saturday, still a cold weekend but not so windy on Sunday as the ridge comes under huge pressure which disrupts the trough creating another cut off upper low over Iberia.

T144.thumb.png.92ea8de159bd8c1603ea6bfa055d416d.pngT216.thumb.png.839a5535a9a2266fa2b2b63af24e8962.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Interesting the role these cut off upper lows continue to play as the trough over NE N. America promotes the high pressure in mid Atlantic, which in turn returns the compliment to the UK on Friday

gfs_z500_vort_natl_25.thumb.png.608e61ff5f7b9b4975453b098a8d47ab.png

And then the pressure on the ridge. Complicated

gfs_z500_vort_natl_37.thumb.png.db4655ddbae4fe56b52260c08d71cd19.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Ay, depending on location of course, but I don't want cold setups in Oct! looks good next week, temps around 15 degrees and dry, before turning ugly Friday

UW72-21.GIF?20-19UW96-21.GIF?20-19UW120-21.GIF?20-19

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is quite different from the previous run next weekend so this is a long way from settled and too early  to be really considering detail. In particular instead of the ridge coming under pressure on the Sunday and sliding north east across the UK, this evening there is a little wave forming in the western quadrant of the trough centred to the north east which travels south across the UK on Sunday. So very chilly Frid/Sun according to this

139191050_sunv06.thumb.png.f953fde5970a3b1f4315bd2f9ebd276b.png1807436513_t192rain.thumb.png.ddff1a8df273d5d58bc28406e652f267.png346540310_t192temp.thumb.png.8f90f6f557e18b6fb949a30d6321a4c9.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just to briefly add to the short range post with the cold plunge over the weekend

gfs_thickness_eur_27.thumb.png.5efbc367dc8de51d76fedf0aa9560900.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_28.thumb.png.2ef2233b15314b72934d138313e0cae8.png

And a forecast sounding in the cold unstable air with the tropopause down to 350mb

sounding.thumb.jpg.12418ab11b312056a741a06fc22e6124.jpg

The ridge attempts to build behind this but another upper trough arrives from the north west by Tuesday according to th gfs.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Quite a difference between predicted top temperatures today and next Sunday on the GFS 6z:

image.thumb.jpg.6f699884118214e7b16b384a583f8c65.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.6bb77ef7be2018270f54095008db43f1.jpg

Are we witnessing the reverse of that sudden flip to warm that occurred in mid-April?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick shufty at the medium term mean GEFS and EPS anomalies. Although not in complete agreement which one wouldn’t expect anyway, are certainly in the same ball park.

A rather slack vortex over the Arctic with an associated trough down through Iceland >UK>Mediterranean associated with an east European ridge extending across northern Scandinavia. Thus a fairly strong westerly upper flow, tending to back in the vicinity of the UK under the influence of the ridge, suggesting a generally changeable picture over the UK with temps remaining below average.

As always this is just an overview and further detail left to actual evolution and the det. runs.

255826354_ecm10-15.thumb.png.f47af1836e1f29da162aa5da97a4e1cb.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.f4141fd2e6a88ef90b90c90f798c8a56.png

Last night's NOAA differs somewhat with the position of the trough and retains some ridging in the Atlantic which allows the flow to veer NW over the UK. This may be down to a longer time frame. Or it may not. Irrespective it would probably still lead the changeable conditions and temps below average.

814day_03.thumb.gif.58e533354b0248e2e549e704756f1ec9.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Despite tomorrow looking a bit cooler... 

B9E93872-95E8-43FC-9AE7-9C86365DA499.thumb.png.d97fd0b79574de979d18ac042e2c29e4.png

...but with temperatures still into the low teens in South and Eastern parts of the UK, Tuesday and Wednesday look fairly warm:

BC365A51-259D-4116-804B-A0E5E14343D2.thumb.png.d1a18a010e8a2ceeb48b74717a78bc65.png

A65070B3-A9DB-448B-9B96-A6A452A93488.thumb.png.9bec3ed4ae77bc22b9424b247be03e69.png

Warmest temperatures over Southern and Eastern parts again. The odd isolated 18, 19, or even 20*C figure could be possible in the East/South-East! Particularly in sunnier spells. Coolest over North-Western areas of the U.K with temperatures in single digits in some parts, particularly over high ground. 

A bit cooler again in general by Thursday:

07BBFEC5-5E7A-4756-943A-F9E2140EBCCF.thumb.png.8b6ba908f4afc760894d6dad9f163b34.png

And more so by Friday as the flow becomes Northerly:

A030BC60-2842-4486-A69A-26EC6B0F30F3.thumb.png.88aee619245dd4c94f49ea1664d576d0.png

Southern areas perhaps clinging onto the mildest conditions. However, it will still feel chillier than what many of us have become used to, especially those exposed to (wintry) showers as well as the chilly Northerly winds.

The 06Z GFS UK Maximum Temperature charts were used as an example. Won’t go into anymore detail as the posters in the Short Range Model Discussion thread cover the details of the 0 to 5 day range well (although anyone is welcome to give their owns views of the models at any range in our various Models threads :) ).

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Sunday sees the first trough and fronts clearing away to the south as the high pressure attempts to ridge north east. But there is still a lot of energy tracking around the high pressure, which is once again amplifying in the western Atlantic, courtesy of the eastern seaboard trough, and 24 hours later the next trough and fronts are approaching from the north west According to the gfs of course

629680663_sun18.thumb.png.35f0045aefc135586999aa8dc5554d3e.png1593997295_mon18.thumb.png.b43e8b82a2fc026b4c920edea40bfa04.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm differs from the gfs so the detail is still a long way from settled. It drops the trough and front down Friday midnight, the colder air is actually to the west and ends up in Iberia. It then builds a much stronger ridge to the west which forces the trough south and sets up an unstable cold, north easterly over the UK

1972771306_vfr00.thumb.png.774bb1eea8ea8cec0721f6daa27f9910.png430449503_vsat12.thumb.png.b1a101dfd1e2351b1d590c74b89ed0c5.png328116674_vsu06.thumb.png.2254e182c206c40fc3c4361247ceef05.png

2039421232_T162850.thumb.png.80c6db99d5be1dfd7dd5150bb51bd62d.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Very briefly following on from my other post, The ridge to the west moves east under strong pressure which forces the trough over the UK south over Iberia, before it actually capitulates under the pressure and another trough approaches from the north west but not before a very cold weekend with widespread frosts for the UK. Not a very pleasant few days in store. Again according to the gfs

gfs_z500_vort_natl_27.thumb.png.ff721e1c5da8327b83c179c3abab3d8b.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_31.thumb.png.bf694d21272db9497bc2fea197c759fd.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm in the same ball par as the gfs pushing the weekend trough south and then the energy splitting the ridge to the west as another trough dips south west which promotes a cut off high cell to the north. But a very cold weekend and particularly over Wales and the south west on Monday in the, now, light winds. Of course this is still subject to change.

v156.thumb.png.cde4753fa72d6477f2c78a4741f2bf4c.pngv180.thumb.png.396fa6f80a5d8e839df70b435f83bf07.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Given the time frame a reasonable agreement between the mean GEFS and EPS anomalies this morning. Which suggests unsettled weather with surface temps remaining below average.

7-12.thumb.png.5c798fd5e0a5c6cfe0b2f06eeb65655b.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.thumb.png.c32ea432547c03c1d85729e24c5f0d0b.png

And last night's NOAA is in the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.7075daea88ae3941fb22bd19d40a41ae.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm continues to split the ridge at the beginning of next week which at the moment achieves two things. A cut off high cell to the north, which then links to the east European ridge and a large area of low pressure in the vicinity of the UK and some very unsettled weather. But also impressive WAA into Europe

v156.thumb.png.e5b86c11624b5823d14172ef807df81f.pngv186.thumb.png.55e3fe41d1435db4c645337ec905ccc9.png

Edited by knocker
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