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Model output discussion-mid Autumn and beyond


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

5th of November & bonfire night daytime temps pushing 17c in one or two isolated spots of the south

GFSOPUK12_240_5.thumb.png.12e6dbd4da1145751cb507f78eb5ac95.pngGFSOPUK12_240_2.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

5th of November & bonfire night daytime temps pushing 17c in one or two isolated spots of the south

GFSOPUK12_240_5.thumb.png.12e6dbd4da1145751cb507f78eb5ac95.pngGFSOPUK12_240_2.png

Yes Bonfire night looking mild, perhaps very mild away from NW Britain

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Rightly or wrongly, to me this one chart sums up why the evolution through next week remains very tricky and uncertain vis the detail.With a lot of energy exiting east upstream interacting with the warmer air of the waxing and waning high pressure. Variations just how precisely the phasing works out, including more trough disruption ,magnifies the run to run differences as the runs progress.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_32.thumb.png.fd7091c96d66ea6543f587d8389d377d.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
15 minutes ago, knocker said:

Rightly or wrongly, to me this one chart sums up why the evolution through next week remains very tricky and uncertain vis the detail.With a lot of energy exiting east upstream interacting with the warmer air of the waxing and waning high pressure. Variations just how precisely the phasing works out, including more trough disruption ,magnifies the run to run differences as the runs progress.

gfs_z500_vort_natl_32.thumb.png.fd7091c96d66ea6543f587d8389d377d.png

Right on Knocker as shown by the GEFS spreads

image.thumb.png.61402c8cb7d175667ad3df88e8fa3f72.png

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm and gfs at T168

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_8.thumb.png.979d3678f11f3099bb51b00fb9a2f097.pnggfs_z850_vort_atl_29.thumb.png.40e4787ada06f75cc093f9678c5a9e5c.png

Interestingly, both feature a strong depression pushing through the south Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Interestingly, both feature a strong depression pushing through the south Atlantic.

Yes i put it in the tweets thread about it on Wednesday,it will probably throw some spanners in the NWP.s output in the next few days.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

If we backtrack a little the gfs has TS 16L, on the move north and deepening as it picks up the jet and phases with another trough

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_18.thumb.png.617aa77d206649f945b4e78455bedbd1.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_22.thumb.png.3d47a1d5938670ebc5ac1216f216c290.pnggfs_uv250_natl_23.thumb.png.db35390ab3107d9442b0b632a809eec3.png

Which by T144 is a deep low 946mb south of Iceland with rain and gales across the UK

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_24.thumb.png.bbdbce50dcd50674aac9ed1b9455fe74.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Needless to say the ecm is not in complete agreement with gfs later next week although it does develop the low that started life over NE N. America.which will bring some wet and windy weather on Friday, particularly in the NW/W

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_6.thumb.png.2aa0f1426f90d74a13cbf9134c2c54c1.pngecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_7.thumb.png.04709102b0845b4615c51c841a20095d.pngecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_8.thumb.png.a2874d7c5a1e313189760838ccc8ae6d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Wednesday looks to be the transition day from the cold to milder temps some parts of the SE could be around 17c by Friday

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.ac1a3754d7c997ffd36909d336fecad1.png1481075043_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.5a3d9998803d5d8bd7a9ce6b5c01744b.png

1665022138_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.5343b9183403dfde735d88b0b79709a6.png1533959178_ukmaxtemp(3).thumb.png.3b4df968a396104eff578b6c4a409263.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wednesday looks to be the transition day from the cold to milder temps some parts of the SE could be around 17c by Friday

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.ac1a3754d7c997ffd36909d336fecad1.png1481075043_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.5a3d9998803d5d8bd7a9ce6b5c01744b.png

1665022138_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.5343b9183403dfde735d88b0b79709a6.png1533959178_ukmaxtemp(3).thumb.png.3b4df968a396104eff578b6c4a409263.png

I'm already looking forward to it, SS!

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

I don't know about Little Ice Age footprints, but the depression at T240 on the ECM would be fairly wet and nasty with the pressure to the east slowing its progress:

ECM1-240.GIF?27-12

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As the weather is not conducive to venturing out this morning a quick look at the GEFS and EPS medium term anomalies.

Although not in complete agreement they are pretty much in the same ball park with a somewhat weak and diffuse vortex Franz Joseph/N. Canada with associated trough (supplementary lobe? Iceland into the eastern Atlantic. A ridge in the western Atlantic but stronger ridging eastern Europe north west into northern Scandinavia.

Thus a strong upper flow exiting north east N. America, ducking around the Iceland trough, and backing south west over the UK, courtesy of the aforementioned ridge

Depending somewhat on how the trough/ridge align this portends unsettled weather with temps around average but as always, something the det. runs will sort

8-13.thumb.png.473f9416456a2c3ebc1da06526a2fecb.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.3fb54c1910eef84ba943b408e1d9849b.png

And last night's NOAA is also in the same ball park

814day_03.thumb.gif.42f3b3c6332108f17681a97b40643411.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
17 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5th of November & bonfire night daytime temps pushing 17c in one or two isolated spots of the south

GFSOPUK12_240_5.thumb.png.12e6dbd4da1145751cb507f78eb5ac95.pngGFSOPUK12_240_2.png

Won’t be needing a bonfire to keep warm!  I seem to remember November 2010 having a very mild start with temps up to 18C?

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
6 minutes ago, Don said:

Won’t be needing a bonfire to keep warm!  I seem to remember November 2010 having a very mild start with temps up to 18C?

19.0c on 4th in London 

-18.0c in Wales on the 28th

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Low pressure crossing to the north of Scotland at the end of the week temps responding as winds come in from the Atlantic

ANOM2m_f144_europe.thumb.png.2ba70c452bb17f7c1a8f2b61ca7e108a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
23 minutes ago, Don said:

Won’t be needing a bonfire to keep warm!  I seem to remember November 2010 having a very mild start with temps up to 18C?

So did 1996.

The pattern of the last 3 months including this one has been a cool off at the back end of the month which has pulled down the CET. Is November going to continue this? 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

t144 from UKMO shows high pressure rebuilding south of the UK as well as the block to our east

The result milder air heading our way with some rain and strong winds where exactly the low will be remains to be seen yet but certainly, the north would turn unsettled

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.1fadfadb0f9e0cc9f845ea128d82d7d1.pngUW144-7.thumb.gif.e0301ae9ab3cbf7c18a25b98967050fa.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning the gfs phased TS Oscar with the other trough as it picked up the jet and now it doesn't, But a bead needs to be kept on the new trough forming in the baroclinic zone off NE N. America

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_20.thumb.png.896c467385d4bd723457f0ae694cd0c2.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_22.thumb.png.a005acc148693bae1205f1a9a6c476f8.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_24.thumb.png.9434306b223068ffcb4016e4e538be33.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_28.thumb.png.54db61ed2d2bbdd8a566fc451a4dfc8d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm on the other hand absorbs Oscar with the other trough at T114 and the resulting intense depression would bring severe gales to the north if it verified

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_5.thumb.png.33fbda6456a9cf44c820c4c91a9e26ef.pngjet.thumb.png.b29d5782c53ca8fa80615655e1f09dde.pngecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_6.thumb.png.7d5f9845005bc4d53ec32ac5de6e9f38.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_7.thumb.png.bca9ce68fab9ab50ba835bc04ee1823e.pngAL162018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.thumb.png.2ee83e18779eb55a577c4632949b77f6.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

A lot of unseasonable warmth tracking a long way north for early November probably around about average for the UK may be a tad above towards the SE

ECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.9790da42ef5ba5b528254b6adfcf8a67.pngECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.dfee1ff27e7a6c75cff1abd2f8001be7.png

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

ECH1-240.GIF?27-0

Evening all :)

A rare early season visit from me but the ECM 12Z evolution tonight is fascinating.

The Azores HP heads to New York for an early dose of Christmas shopping and the eastern Atlantic is left to LP forming to the NNW and coming SE across the British Isles and into NW Europe. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

At T108 the ecm has Oscar merging with the trough that has formed in the Newfoundland area. It then and deepens and becomes an intense depression in in mid Atlantic by T120.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.thumb.png.5aabda1b133b80f061ec9d7119985732.png

24 hours later it is 963mb north west of Ireland, after hitching a ride on the jet, bringing rain and severe gales to the UK

t144.thumb.png.3e22a2532a5d371e9cd288cc0fa7beac.png

After that generally unsettled with more systems approaching from the west.

Edited by knocker
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