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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, with any luck, an Arctic reload to finish?


Netweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS is my idea of heaven lol..

Just need some proper Arctic air from the back off the West agreeny heights now 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

@Daniel Smith a bit like when those who predict the models are wrong when showing mild and will soon flip back to cold suddenly go into hibernation?  This thread isn’t for point scoring it’s for discussing the models. 

A good set of 12zs so far but don’t forget the 00z set and the wild swings in the ensembles. A long way to go until the possible mid month cold spell (or not)  is settled! 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Just need some proper Arctic air from the back off the West agreeny heights now 

Something like this - crazy chart. PV completely gone , far from reality I’m sure but if not expect a prolonged freeze mid to late Dec unless it ends up too far West that is

D2E0A221-B87D-45E2-8FC4-965DB279F265.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Two words, 'yes please'!

gfsnh-0-300.png?12

What a bonkers chart.  If we could get to here..... well, the mind boggles!!!

And look at the cold pool to the north!

gfsnh-1-300.png?12

(and yes I know this is at 300hrs)

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

gfsnh-0-312.png?12

That would equate to a very mild North America , even southern Canada wouldn’t be that cold

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some similarity with December 1981? But I won't mention it!:yahoo:

Netweather GFS Image

Even a sinking low?

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Huge difference to our North West compared to 06z! 

 

18500DBB-9DDA-4AF9-A9D6-F9E6D0BF8A1E.png

B86FB910-6D8C-4FB2-93E3-09F74AEBC8B6.png

Indeed Tim. Many more twists and turns to come. What we do need is a decent ecm run tonight. 

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Believe that GFS 12z at your peril!...been here before.

Yes, but let us dream, at least until the 18Z. 

Can't really get a better run than the GFS 12Z, can we ? 

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

I see the charts continue to push the cold our way.

Still not a done deal but something's brewing I said yesterday there is strong similarity with 2009 2010.

If the ECM onboard later and I know the gem is I'd get the shovels at the ready.

Incredible displacement of the vortex to our side nearly the entire lobe of vortex incredible.

And I'm still punting on a Canadian stratosphere warming event to.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 looking pretty solid !

The ridge of weak ridge High pressure over Iceland helping steer that low SE

76525ED8-5436-482B-9A27-F761B4F8A3F5.thumb.jpeg.0d528fc2c8018a672c8b04770aa22bbe.jpeg

 

On a knife-edge. Small differences in that Atlantic low will have large ramifications further down the line. Won't be resolved quickly. Going to need a couple of days yet before firming up on a forecast. Personally I'm still seeing the coolest options as the outsider options, as they require close to ideal conditions upstream - but they aren't unrealistic either. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

I see the charts continue to push the cold our way.

Still not a done deal but something's brewing I said yesterday there is strong similarity with 2009 2010.

If the ECM onboard later and I know the gem is I'd get the shovels at the ready.

Incredible displacement of the vortex to our side nearly the entire love of vortex incredible.

And I'm still punting on a Canadian stratosphere warming event to.

Me too, although I don't know what one looks like.  The stratospheric vortex is suffering, here latest GFS run T384:

image.thumb.jpg.a59fb845ca763706fc3a443ec2252d3f.jpg

Hardly making -76C - if I was a young stratospheric vortex, my teachers would be going, that's rubbish, pull your act together!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

GEFS - getting me interested again - the first suite that i can truly say i am happy with since i jumped on the 'no cold for a while' bandwagon.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Waiting for the west based crap in the next run then? All over the shop still if you ask me

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - getting me interested again - the first suite that i can truly say i am happy with since i jumped on the 'no cold for a while' bandwagon.

Great news Feb- unfortunately Exeter have flipped again to expecting mild wet and windy again in the run up to Christmas...

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Me too, although I don't know what one looks like.  The stratospheric vortex is suffering, here latest GFS run T384:

image.thumb.jpg.a59fb845ca763706fc3a443ec2252d3f.jpg

Hardly making -76C - if I was a young stratospheric vortex, my teachers would be going, that's rubbish, pull your act together!

That's some very large wave attacks on the vortex,

and very messy vortex atm.

I think this is progressing nicely towards some interesting stuff in the next couple of days.

The vortex is on the ropes and not especially strong as you say.

Was it not a 2 wave attack that started 2009 2010 winter.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Great news Feb- unfortunately Exeter have flipped again to expecting mild wet and windy again in the run up to Christmas...

Yes, looks like a brief cold spell albeit one that is growing in %.

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