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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Big shift in the mean compared to the 06z @ D8, looks like we could be in business. It would appear that some of the milder ENS members have turned cold after all!:clap:

gens-21-1-204.png

gens-21-1-216.png

gens-21-0-216.png

gens-21-0-228.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In this country, cold spells are generally brief ........ getting a spell rather than a snap is the trick ! 

Agreed.

Exeter gone back to expecting the jet to be strong..we'll see.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

Exeter gone back to expecting the jet to be strong..

TBF that is in line with the back end of the ensembles - say D13-16

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Great news Feb- unfortunately Exeter have flipped again to expecting mild wet and windy again in the run up to Christmas...

They flip flop all  the time,no consistency at all,which maybe a good thing if you think about it.Roll on the ECM

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

They flip flop all  the time,no consistency at all,which maybe a good thing if you think about it.Roll on the ECM

Yes , i still would prefer them to be not talking about mild wet and windy christmas week, ive had a gut full of that this week!

As you say, roll on EC .. lets hope for a belter !

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes , i still would prefer them to be not talking about mild wet and windy christmas week, ive had a gut full of that this week!

As you say, roll on EC .. lets hope for a belter !

Oh dear, I hope thats not a bad omen for the ECM? Be nice to get some agreement for a chance!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, snowray said:

Oh dear, I hope thats not a bad omen for the ECM? Be nice to get some agreement for a chance!

TBH that update is suggestive of a zonal attack in the run up to christmas but it sounds like they expect any high to get swamped by a strong northern arm..

EC will be interesting, hope its like GFS..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

For goodness sake !!!!!!!

exeter are speaking about events beginning almost three weeks away 

maybe we should limit this thread to only referencing the next two weeks ..... infact, as its model discussion, unless you are posting about the long range models, then maybe limit the chat to 16 days as per the modelling 

Aye, your right Blue..

Just thought i would add it to the discussion..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

This would be a great position to be in, fingers crossed.

 

gfsnh-0-204.png?12

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

The ECM and gem and not far away the JMA have all shown mid latitude block to our west and to our north and northeast. nothing really screaming northwest around Greenland yet.

but high pressure won't be to far away as long as we keep a southerly tracking jet,we can still push ridge's around a bit.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
19 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Who cares? They flip flop up and down like a lady of the night’s knickers!  Growing momentum of the LP around 8th Dec being the trigger period to bring in the real cold set up.  Very happy with models thus far

BFTP

 

Is this the model thread, note model, in the search for cold or comments about Exeter?

Just curious

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, johnholmes said:

Is this the model thread, note model, in the search for cold or comments about Exeter?

Just curious

 

He referenced the models.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

He referenced the models.

But the main thrust is Exeter, why?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Gfsp showing excellent cold pattern consistency ..... I recall it doing that a couple weeks ago .....was wrong to do so .......

oh - also the 06z gefs decision to leave the tpv centre nw Greenland by d16  has gone on the 12z ......

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes FV3 on board, solid as a rock! -8c uppers are in and snow showers moving in from the east coast, can do with the HP being a bit further north though.

 

Here are the 12z ensembles for London too at the bottom, looking very good..

gfs-0-234.png

gfs-1-234.png

gfs-2-222.png

gfs-2-234.png

graphe_ens3.gif

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

But the main thrust is Exeter, why?

Not being funny but i have to say that at least this thread has the correct theme - searching for snow because most of the people on it are of the snowflake generation.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

yes and also the black hole was common back then ,which is not the case archivesnh-1978-12-31-12-2.pngnowadays 

Hi Sleety Think I saw a black whole on tonight's 12z GFS. Lol

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

But the main thrust is Exeter, why?

A vain attempt to make the Met Office's forecasters look like muppets, would be my guess, John...These days, making a fantabulous forecast, one's self, is simply not enough? Others must be ridiculed?

Edited by Ed Stone
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