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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Though it may not represent the final outcome, I think tonight's FV3 represents the developments of the past 24 hours for Christmas Day. It shows:

- collapsing heights in the Atlantic 

- an average size trough just to our NE 

- a strong ridge entering Europe with anomalously high temperatures into Iberia 

The result in this particular variation is a stand off between colder air entering the north of the UK and warm air just to the south, with a marked temperature gradient likely over southern areas:

gfs-0-204.png?12

gfs-1-210.png?12

This again speaks of a fair chance of a White Christmas for Scotland and Northern hills - whilst maintaining a wide envelope of possibilities for southern areas, from colder air getting a little further south (probably hill snow being the best that can be hoped for here), to exceptional mild if heights from the south are more progressive. 

To me, recent ECM ops have been unreliable as a guide of the general Christmas pattern, either because they haven't seen an Atlantic ridge, or, like tonight, they've completely gone against a Euro ridge - both of which have been prevalent in ensemble output. 

That's not to say either the FV3 will be right, or the ECM wrong - it's just the FV3, to me, is the best picture of overall guidance tonight

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Interesting ........

Eps spread at day 10 says that a cluster has a decent griceland height rise 

and the extended eps are slowly retrograding the pattern of the trough ridge trough and that upper ridge continues to look like it could gain a bit more traction ......

Could do with the core of higher heights being further north - the heights are stronger than this morning's run but anything they are further south.  Still very decent but would like to see some northward movement of those higher heights.

 

PS - talking about 12-15 day period!  

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
30 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Could do with the core of higher heights being further north - the heights are stronger than this morning's run but anything they are further south.  Still very decent but would like to see some northward movement of those higher heights.

 

PS - talking about 12-15 day period!  

Maybe not by much but they are further north .......the west Russian trough into se Europe is what’s gaining my attention as it begins to sharpen .......

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe not by much but they are further north .......the west Russian trough into se Europe is what’s gaining my attention as it begins to sharpen .......

Thoughts on Christmas day Boxing day blue?

Fair to say dry and temps dropping away ..

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

We loose the trough at 8-14 days on the cpc to be replaced by height's nr the uk,that is a big change from last night's.

610day_03.thumb.gif.d9d9fe83a26b449c6aca404c8c480129.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.7036d8626610f35764e54d23f9010bf4.gif

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thoughts on Christmas day Boxing day blue?

Fair to say dry and temps dropping away ..

Subject to quite binary sets of clusters on the 00z run ............. best wait for the next couple suites before having a stab .........

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Singularity said:

This being what’s anticipated as the models start to resolve the tropical cycle better. Worth watching that Griceland high cluster closely - may not be a smooth process mind!

Tropical forcing is more important than stratospheric developments with respect to how the final week of this month shapes up... and in any case this in turn determines how the SSW shapes up exactly.

Its all connected  

Indeed and a few here are putting the cart before the horse ..........

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Subject to quite binary sets of clusters on the 00z run ............. best wait for the next couple suites before having a stab .........

Hi mate 

@Allseasons-si posted the JMA strat chart and it’s a very big warming . Is the JMA any good at modelling the strat ? 

Cheers 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
47 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hi mate 

@Allseasons-si posted the JMA strat chart and it’s a very big warming . Is the JMA any good at modelling the strat ? 

Cheers 

I don't know but it shows the strongest of the warmings than the other models

maybe someone can clarify

the warming is a dead cert now but as others have said in here and over on the strat thread,will it be favourable for the uk

the models will not show the lag response from this yet but it won't be long.

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Indeed and a few here are putting the cart before the horse ..........

Yes and this is why I've always maintained I was quite happy to sacrifice this month (in terms of wintry weather) to get a decent SSW over the line. I believe the strat route will ultimately prove more fruitful to us than some half baked trop pattern this month.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, CreweCold said:

Yes and this is why I've always maintained I was quite happy to sacrifice this month (in terms of wintry weather) to get a decent SSW over the line. I believe the strat route will ultimately prove more fruitful to us than some half baked trop pattern this month.

Mind you it might be an upwelling that finally finishes the strat off for good.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Mind you it might be an upwelling that finally finishes the strat off for good.

It could be. But we need the major warming first. First things first hey.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I wonder what status tonight's 18Z will adopt. Will it be the finder of the unstoppable path to cold? Or will it, as it so often does, go the way of the pear?

That IMO, is where we currently stand: we won't know the effects of the SSW until much closer to when it happens, so the tail-ends of the models will continue to flap, for a few more days yet...

I will dutifully apply my 'how many pages have been filled, overnight' test, first thing in the morning!

Night all!:santa-emoji:

Edited by Paul
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

 

I did say I would do a comparison of how the model behaves using the same charts, in this case the 12Z, starting yesterday 15 December

Test 2.doc

I have no idea, yet, whether this is a trend or just coincidence that the first two days are very smilar!

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Have a read JH....I did it in October

 

BFTP

Ok but could you give me the link please?

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Certainly, if the pieces fall into place, we could be looking at a bitterly cold Jan/Feb. This strat warming has me very hopeful. Positive vibes people!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A great positive vibe on this forum tonight. Quite a significant strat warming in the making, Xmas weather still up in the air - Willets (legend) giving great hope for Xmas like she did back in 2005 (and proved correct), GP posting in the strat thread. So much to look forward to. It really doesn't get much better than this Oh! And shaky is singing on TV - Merry Christmas everyone!

cool models then @shaky!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Some thoughts, Interesting times.  Must admit my interest has moved on from the Christmas period now, yes, hope the northerly happens and some get some frost or even some snow, but it is the minority outlook.   

Further on, experts have claimed a SSW leads to a 2/3 shot at UK cold.  And one did, in Spring.  The SSW is now nailed on to happen between 25-30 Dec, and is now likelier (based on last 7 FV3 runs)  to break favourably for UK cold, and if it does its effects could be to bring about the coldest, possibly snowiest January since 2013.

But we can only watch and wait, patience coldies!  This is the best chance we have had in years!

Our current situation encapsulated perfectly Mike.  We're always after strong building blocks for a winter and they always seem to arrive either too late or early.  Well this winter it's very different. Does this result in 100% confidence of a cold and snowy Jan-Feb, no it doesn't.  But it does mean that the odds are in favour of wintery weather coming our way.  I will wager by this time next week this forum is going to be very busy indeed!?

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
2 hours ago, chris55 said:

Operationals look to be slightly more seasonal/festive for the big day tonight. Where the potential SSW takes us into the new year is high on the agenda, but a cold and frosty Xmas would be lovely while we wait  

Couldn't agree more, mate! If i can't have a white christmas, a @frosty one is better than a zonal one!

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