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The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Things really have taken a dive since last weekend.  I was delighted with Gavs Weather Vids long range model outlook, but it all went to pot soon after!  However, the long range models tended to point towards a blocked outlook later in winter, so all is not lost yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Feb, you seem very angry at the moment. Chill out man We get it. You don’t think there will be snow before Christmas!

What makes you so sure that we won’t? Clearly, the next week, almost certainly two weeks, are not going to produce. But there is a 2 week period thereafter that is still up for grabs.

As for ramping a non snowy cold spell. Really? A cold snowy spell is more likely to evolve from a cold spell already set in than straight from zonal.

Not angry - more concerned - i was never in the cold December or any winer like 2009-10 camp, however, with Jetstream behaviour of last 12 months and going into a solar min, i was pretty confident of some short very cold spells at sometime during the winter, the first possible in 1st or second week of Jan, so i just hope that the rampant zonal train doesnt get going and would like to see a better run stratospherically on the 18z and would like to see a better EC46 tonight.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
18 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^ Yes @bluearmysaw the T2Ms & thought there may have been an over reaction to the energy from the operations

- The short term has upgraded as has been highlighted-

Im not sure we can get enough cold for any wintryness in the south however for the midlands North it does look better !

Lets see what this evenings runs bring

Quite, i'm not despondent at all, although i'm quite sure i'm not high enough to be seeing any snow for a while,but i have a sneaky feeling Blue may be onto something with the scandy heights longer term,personally i suspect it will stem from Atlantic height rises eventually scandy..

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

That’s when you know things are scraping the barrel! Looking for a bit of dandruff over the high ground in the north

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Sensible model discussion please! Other places/forums to talk about girls, hot guys, etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Yuck yuck yuck and a few more yucks just about describes the days model output thus far.. 

Having said that - Extended EPS still signalling height rises in the 10-15 day period so it's not all bad..

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

EC46, week 2 scandi high anoms and in towards the pole - week 3 until the end is as flat as a pancake.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Icon 18z +120 chart has a shallower feature to south west = more chance of snow for some. As others have said, could be a surprise snowfall for some next week.

0F83998B-38C6-4D9B-8C8C-5226BB96DD0D.png

7D37BFF8-E39D-4332-8ACF-87EF1C69FEE4.png

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Good evening people 

hope everyone is ok and well . Currently pouring with a heavy shower here in Walthamstow East London and it's not too cold. Just been looking at the comments tonight and the mood seems very low.

in my post a week and a half ago I did put my thoughts forward and did mention that the Atlantic will have an influence on our weather for a while which is currently happening. I think there was too much hope that come December our weather will become blocked and a cold spell will settle in. Unfortunately it now looks like the Atlantic will have a upper hand for a while. 

Having said this the weather can change and I personally would not look more than 5 days ahead. Who knows it may well be a different story in 2 weeks time. So people let's be patent and not get too dishearted it's only the 29th of November today.

Just to highlight how quickly things can begin to change just watched the BBC extended outlook and guess what by next weekend their thoughts are the weather will quieten down and signs that things will be turning colder.

take care people 

kind regards

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
16 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Icon 18z +120 chart has a shallower feature to south west = more chance of snow for some. As others have said, could be a surprise snowfall for some next week.

0F83998B-38C6-4D9B-8C8C-5226BB96DD0D.png

7D37BFF8-E39D-4332-8ACF-87EF1C69FEE4.png

Indeed, people in the North should be looking at this in my opinion, forget charts at +T300 for now, could be quite a bit of snow on slightly higher ground but not exclusively next week.

132-7.gif

132-101.gif

132-574.gif

132-778.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46, week 2 scandi high anoms and in towards the pole - week 3 until the end is as flat as a pancake.

That's brilliant news as I far as I'm concerned because normally it is the other way around - flat in the near/medium term and jam tomorrow. I remember BA saying last week that week 3 held some interest. Well, that is now week 2. Would be interesting to compare last week's week 3 to this week's week 2 to see if things have ramped up somewhat in the scandi high scenario. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's brilliant news as I far as I'm concerned because normally it is the other way around - flat in the near/medium term and jam tomorrow. I remember BA saying last week that week 3 held some interest. Well, that is now week 2. Would be interesting to compare last week's week 3 to this week's week 2 to see if things have ramped up somewhat in the scandi high scenario. 

Don't forget though all week 2 is is this mornings 0z EPS as far as i am aware, BA will put me right if i am wrong.

EDIT : in fact its the last half of week 2 of the eps and the 1st half of the 51 members continuation if  you know what i mean.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

EPS clusters are out, not a bad +336 cluster chart. 54% going for blocking over Scandi, though 45% go for a continued Atlantic trough

EPS.png

Cluster 1 is exactly what GP was gunning for at that time frame. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Cluster 1 is exactly what GP was gunning for at that time frame. 

Fits quite nicely in with the latest EC46 too with the signal for Scandi height rises.. we just need week 3 to sod off 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

JMA T264 is by far the best chart of the evening runs, just shows what is still plausible given the considerable range of uncertainty.

image.thumb.jpg.d51520849ba4433f8baac774d50f90ac.jpg

One thing that has struck me from the latest runs is a decline in the Arctic high as a player, wonder if this has influenced the jet further north again compared to the 12z runs yesterday?

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Fits quite nicely in with the latest EC46 too with the signal for Scandi height rises.. we just need week 3 to sod off 

If week 2 verifies then in all likelihood week 3 will indeed sod off

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Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

No sign of anything colder as we progress into December, in fact from having looked at the GFS it seems that the Atlantic will be intensifying with milder SW winds, just in time for meteorological Winter, you couldn't make it up! 

18_324_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
21 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

EPS clusters are out, not a bad +336 cluster chart. 54% going for blocking over Scandi, though 45% go for a continued Atlantic trough

EPS.png

Certainly a signal for some snowfall Midlands Northwards next week from the EPS ensemble mean, though likely to be rather more restricted in reality, it does show the risk.

EPS1.thumb.png.295c0c22dd1a79ed5b20d5bac1278e2f.png

I've not given up just yet, the Det runs might be showing zonal but there's still a (growing) support for height rises over Scandi towards the second week of December, EC46/EPS clusters fairly supportive of it. 

Next week, unsettled with bouts of PM air bringing a risk of battleground snow to Northern areas, week 2, heights building towards Scandi possibly bringing in more settled/colder weather from the East?

is it me but i see no heights building over Scandinavia at all in the next 2 weeks..not even a glimmer

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

is it me but i see no heights building over Scandinavia at all in the next 2 weeks..not even a glimmer

That depends on where you're looking..

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