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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Day 6 is about as far as we can reasonably look on the ops ...... but the ec day 7 is big upstream imo - can we see a change with that Canadian vortex push of low heights into the n Atlantic .........

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Mobile WiFi reception this evening akin to 56k modem dialup, at best. Driving me mad. I think (because I can only see the top half of a chart each time I refresh!) the ECM looks ok.

Ah just seen NWS post flash up. Good good.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Mobile WiFi reception this evening akin to 56k modem dialup, at best. Driving me mad. I think (because I can only see the top half of a chart each time I refresh!) the ECM looks ok.

Ah just seen NWS post flash up. Good good.

It does look very good but there is just no signposting of this in the ENS, like we said yesterday, looks like it will be great but every run it just gets flattened in FI

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Looking good at T168 

E52C86E4-AEC9-4FB6-8701-DA01241F0EEF.png

Doesn’t look much different to the 00z run which ended in the below. Need some better WAA or a full split otherwise it will end the same - as below 

A1180651-A457-483A-9A9C-D8368720846A.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Responce..or otherwise..

The impacts of n-hem turns are becoming-quick of favour...

As we gain the feed from the mass eastern lobe...are a mothers t#t  and feed to the north west euro frame!..

And yes the upper responce then can be founded.

Its march...and stamp from here!

Edit;..

The divorcing vortices..speak MASS, as the notion and forms of warming..take note..

The wide expance of the euro hp vert..are obvious..

And the reach and angle not yet fully noted..but its a banker..

4 climb..and a chase for cold spill into the top quarter!!!...

As we'll see now as motion is on.

 

 

ECH0-168.gif

ECH1-168.gif

ECM1-168.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I’m liking the ecm, would be even better if it would just move a few hundred miles west imo plenty of time for the upgrades

Edited by markw2680
Mistake
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It does look very good but there is just no signposting of this in the ENS, like we said yesterday, looks like it will be great but every run it just gets flattened in FI

Yep, agreed, does look like it will be be over run again. But it wouldn’t need much of a tweak, am thinking a bit of Atlantic trough disruption and the tipping point could be reach and we head off down an altogether better path. Like you say though, unlikely until we see some ens showing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, s4lancia said:

Yep, agreed, does look like it will be be over run again. But it wouldn’t need much of a tweak, am thinking a bit of Atlantic trough disruption and the tipping point could be reach and we head off down an altogether better path. Like you say though, unlikely until we see some ens showing. 

I tell you what is good though, every run thats more amplified is surely either as a result of an upgrade in the strat or affect the strat anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
Quote

 

 

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I tell you what is good though, every run thats more amplified is surely either as a result of an upgrade in the strat or affect the strat anyway.

Please help a noob out here, what are you guys looking for in the strat to suggest snow lower down?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Unfortunately, it looks like ECM is going to develop a SW'ly in its last frame

But the North Pole view doesn't look too bad. 

 

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Atlantics hit the wall...

Awaits undercut

DD700A64-DB51-4783-9303-28E02ECD07D6.thumb.png.751fd32a79286b44e61deb619bd3e46f.png

NB again QTR to strat....

 

 

Not sure how a favourable undercut would occur there with the energy over Greenland and associated positively tilted trough.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
3 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

 

Please help a noob out here, what are you guys looking for in the strat to suggest snow lower down?

A Christmas miracle.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Sparky68 said:

 

Please help a noob out here, what are you guys looking for in the strat to suggest snow lower down?

You can't be sure of snow in an individual location as a result of an SSW, however the best stratospheric profile to give us the best chance of the Northern blocking that would be more likely to bring us snow is a split SSW, it is showing one but not a really wide one and isn't generally (yet) affecting the troposphere in the model output to any great positive effect, not all SSW's cut the mustard.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I tell you what is good though, every run thats more amplified is surely either as a result of an upgrade in the strat or affect the strat anyway.

Yep. Which is making me wonder are we heading towards an undercut scenario, yet to show up on the charts. In more ‘normal’ circumstances I’d say almost certainly not but these are more fluid and dynamic times.  

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, LRD said:

Unfortunately, it looks like ECM is going to develop a SW'ly in its last frame

 

Unfortunately..thats what we want 2 see.

Due to raw and data responces to an alarming-show un both the upper atmosphere...and gaining at the pole...as a whole!..

Its aligning for perfection cold drop down...via all syncs/formats.

Close and mid range, will start to format in sync..as latter frames lose decipher.

A classic uptake of an-immediate change afoot!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I will go through some previous strat threads later on to pluck out some stonkers, the best was 2009 january.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will go through some previous strat threads later on to pluck out some stonkers, the best was 2009 january.

You beat me to it feb...

The change is a decent evo-as we stand..its a splitter..

And shouts flip..and arange!!!

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