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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Bullseye said:

Over on 33andrain there is a brief breakdown by John Homenuk from Twitter. 

-NAO weeks 3 and 4 if i read him right.

Edited by northwestsnow
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone got any EC46 access here?

It looks good and is pretty much in line with the Met Office extended forecast!

(I don’t have access) but that’s the bones of it..

Edited by karlos1983
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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Over on 33andrain there is a brief breakdown by John Homenuk from Twitter. 

Euro Weeklies are in: Colder than normal pattern really sets in across the Central/Eastern USA Week 2, and continues through Week 4. Weeks 2 and 3 are both colder than the last cycle. Most notably, this run shows ample poleward ridging into BC by Weeks 2-3 and a -NAO weeks 3-4.

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Bullseye Community Regular

Bullseye

Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

-NAO weeks 3 and 4 if i read him right.

Yeah I also agree with that. Interestingly he did mention week 2 as major W NH ridging. 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

2nd week of Jan potentially stormy with southerly tracking jet on EC weeklies?

 

 

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Signs, yet again, of things looking better for cold in deepest FI on GFS 18z

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

I think it’s time to drop the sudden from SSW. 

Nothing sudden about it. 

This is painful. 

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.9978a5a10c2e1b4ed8c3b5850a0f94bc.png

Might need to turn the heating up a few notches me thinks.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
  • Popular Post
Posted

Gfs finally sniffing a response late on (looking at the hemispheric pattern it is )?

the 46 is a story of a slowly sinking jet across the six weeks ....progressively colder as the period goes on with n blocking becoming evident in week 3 (to our n and nw)  Imo, the reversal plays no sig part in this run ...... it could be looking even more blocked come next Monday evenings update 

 

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted

Quite a difference in ECM and GFS by 3rd Jan... 

ECH1-168.thumb.gif.9c3900279c8e7dfa94af551f3d4f0bc2.gif 805046491_gfsnh-0-162(1).thumb.png.4effde3f47d9a58668a90c50e4e7f179.png

I'm not going to try to predict what will be the 'winner', if either, but one does look more indicative of a split in the start than the other. 

By 6th Jan, well, the difference in the state of the PV is ridiculous. 

950374222_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.654929b2cf6a258a68fbb82dba4f55ec.gif gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.21e1e2578f3bb05c2ef615a4d050907f.png

 

 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I think it’s time to drop the sudden from SSW. 

Nothing sudden about it. 

This is painful. 

I don’t think the models will start to have a grasp of the effects of the SSWE lower down until after day 1 of the event, then we can perhaps fathom whether it’ll be a QTR or up to a two week wait if the trop responds. 

SSW is not the be all and end all for our winter prospects though, just part of the jigsaw, models still yet to get a handle on the MJO wave aswell, EC likely incorrect with taking the wave into COD after P6, GFS likely too amped through colder phases but more correct in the idea of an amplified wave through 7-8-1, but the models progression through the colder phases unlikely to be reflected in the model output yet as the lag effect too far away. 

Edited by Nick F
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I think it’s time to drop the sudden from SSW. 

Nothing sudden about it. 

This is painful. 

Yes it isn't really a sudden stratospheric warming is it?  

More like a warming in the stratosphere which is well modelled in advance, which might have some consequences to us on the planet or not, which might happen quickly or slowly or not at all, AND I STILL HAVEN'T SEEN A SINGLE SNOWFLAKE!

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LRD Accomplished

LRD

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes it isn't really a sudden stratospheric warming is it?  

More like a warming in the stratosphere which is well modelled in advance, which might have some consequences to us on the planet or not, which might happen quickly or slowly or not at all, AND I STILL HAVEN'T SEEN A SINGLE SNOWFLAKE!

But surely it is sudden in the strat but isn't forecast to manifest itself in the trop and at the surface as quickly? With the eC46 and the Met Office saying what they are saying, I'm still confident of a cold second half of winter

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs finally sniffing a response late on (looking at the hemispheric pattern it is )?

the 46 is a story of a slowly sinking jet across the six weeks ....progressively colder as the period goes on with n blocking becoming evident in week 3 (to our n and nw)  Imo, the reversal plays no sig part in this run ...... it could be looking even more blocked come next Monday evenings update 

 

Not sure about that, as the starting data now surely must Guarantee the effects of the SSW, either  way, its the best one of those updates i have ever seen for persistent Northern blocking.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Another step in the right direction from the 18z, upper flow over the arctic is miles better than the dreadful 06z this morning and does leave the door wide open down the line. In the medium term much will depend on whether the Atlantic gets through but I don't think longer term than that there will be other factors in play.

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