Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We just need the background to now start coming to the foreground.  Very benign charts of nothingness this morning.....maybe a good thing...thumbs twiddling.  Each model shows LP coming over us by 23rd then UKMO GFS slic a piece off to g hold to SW and ECM dives it SSE after it passes through us .....so we get towards a point I'm looking for then it goes haywire......

BFTP

Edited December 19, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Met4Cast]

With the Stratospheric warming now underway and the warming can now be fed directly into forecasting data rather than it just being a forecast, models should begin to reflect this in the next couple of days. 

Model volitility likely to continue until that signal hits properly, then we should start to see some very interesting charts appearing out in FI. 

[frosty ground]

nothing much is going to change with the Jet angled like the pumping up height over Souhern Europe

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

A benign boring anticyclonic christmas / new year from the 00z models..not a sniff of anything wintry..hope things change but currently no sign of any wintry narnia weather into the new year!

Well it's much better than all this wind & rain. Nice weather to get out and about during the Christmas holidays without getting soaked everywhere you go ️

[Badgers01]

well at least nothing showing to disrupt peoples travel plans , I think we should be able to move around family and friends with no dramas !

 

[steveinsussex]

17 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Yes Frosty and thats coming from you - Very much Game Over in the near to mid term - taking a break from the Models for a while.

Crazy. We could be in for one of the most interesting spells of ‘model watching’ in years....

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

With the Stratospheric warming now underway and the warming can now be fed directly into forecasting data rather than it just being a forecast, models should begin to reflect this in the next couple of days. 

Model volitility likely to continue until that signal hits properly, then we should start to see some very interesting charts appearing out in FI. 

I would say that's when the real model volatility will begin Daniel, going to make for some wild viewing and extreme swings in thread mood if i were to hazard a guess ......... Can't wait LOL

[blizzard81]

Taking a leaf out of John Holmes's book. Compare yesterday's gfs 06z with this morning's for the same time. I know which one I prefer

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

well at least nothing showing to disrupt peoples travel plans , I think we should be able to move around family and friends with no dramas !

 

I take it you haven't noticed British Rail are carrying out upgrades. A guarantee of everything coming to a standstill

[frosty ground]

Just now, knocker said:

I take it you haven't noticed British Rail are carrying out upgrades. A guarantee of everything coming to a standstill

British rail where notoriously slow but they are not that slow, they haven't existed for a while.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

British rail where notoriously slow but they are not that slow, they haven't existed for a while.

I'm adverse to the word National these days. Nearly as much as potential

Edited December 19, 2018 by knocker

[blizzard81]

Interesting! 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Interesting! 

Until you notice the CFS stamp on it

[Neilsouth]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

With the Stratospheric warming now underway and the warming can now be fed directly into forecasting data rather than it just being a forecast, models should begin to reflect this in the next couple of days. 

Model volitility likely to continue until that signal hits properly, then we should start to see some very interesting charts appearing out in FI. 

Is that chart showing where we are at right now? How high is the line likely to go during "PEAK" SSW

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Until you notice the CFS stamp on it

True, although it looks unerringly close to what the MetOffice are predicting. If those charts don't say dominating East or North Easterly winds, I don't know what will! It's also very similar to those longer range models predicting a cold spell for NE CONUS and NW Europe

Edited December 19, 2018 by ITSY

[MR EXTREMES]

25 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Reverse psychology Stewart! 

well the ecm this morning opened my eyes from the dramatic ups and downs.

nothing mild over christmas cold lid over the uk and to our west big cold push into scandinava jet looping over and most of eastern europe going into the freezer.

last to frames on the ecm show core of heights pulling out to our west can we get to a 1060mb greenland high very 2009/2010 looking i reckon first cold northerly then northeasterly then easterly and so on.

jan the 3rd 4th still looking very exciting.

no crystal ball needed teleconnection are on board the jigsaw in falling into place.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Until you notice the CFS stamp on it

Fair point but on the other hand that week 4 chart seems to agree with the glosea and ecm pressure anomalies for winter. It therefore has good backing from the more respected models. 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Is that chart showing where we are at right now? How high is the line likely to go during "PEAK" SSW

Peak could go beyond the top of the graph!!

[MR EXTREMES]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Interesting! 

and these charts are what im expecting so there looking good for 1060mb greenland heights.

[frosty ground]

Finally get a break out on the third attempt

Edited December 19, 2018 by frosty ground

[blizzard81]

Here we go aka jan 47  or maybe not! 

Edited December 19, 2018 by blizzard81

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Finally get a break out on the third attempt

Doesn’t amount to much, I have a feeling we may start seeing some FI eye candy amougst the GEFS over the day though!! 

[MR EXTREMES]

22 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

nothing much is going to change with the Jet angled like the pumping up height over Souhern Europe

and the break of jet streaming cold down into europe to our east so its all going to plan in my amature eyes

[mountain shadow]

GFS 6z splits the Strat PV on New Years Day, apart from that a pretty boring run.

I'm thinking from the 10th to  Mid January before the goods arrive.

[shaky]

Not much goin on right now models wise!!same old rubbish from the gfs 06z!!iberian heights a pain again!!obviously could change over the next few days but i am commenting on the output right now and its just rubbish for snow!!i seriously cant wait for the turnaround in the models cos this last week has been so boring lol!! weather wise aswell!!