Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Glacier Point]

Key thing to watch over the coming days is whether that mean T850 can get to -10 or below around the 27th/28th.

Parallel 06z sort of painting a picture of what is the most likely trend towards early Feb.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Glacier Point

[sorepaw1]

T144 hows the M25 motorway  coping

In this set up.

Great runs all round imo.

Bitterly cold NEE wind.

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Now that is some mean at that t plus

That kind of definition on the euro trough is astonishing for a T312 chart ... and though one always has to be wary when analysing surface pressure over Greenland, a 1035mb mean high is quite unusual so far off, too.

The ECM ensembles also seem to be having a love-in with each other too - at T360 (D15), we have this

Like the GEFS, very very clear themes for so far out. Euro trough slightly S/E, some sort of ridging either west or north - it spells another very strong signal for cold.

Odds pretty good this morning on a cold pattern being with us for quite some time. At the coldest part of the year, too.

[Derecho]

Morning people, it looks as though we have had another very good morning for coldies.

The 06z swingometers for the 25th of January are now swinging towards very cold. These are in the majority now so I'm becoming increasingly confident we will see a good cold spell before the month ends. A few easterlies in there but some actually develop a block to the W/NW instead so we get arctic rather then continental cold. P5 is keen to get going and then also develops a deeper cold spell later.

 

It seems that almost all routes lead to cold as a very cold signal has persisted for the end of January for some time now. P9 is one of the few runs that fails to get any decent cold by January 25th only for a second bite of the cherry later.

 

The global temperature anomaly plot looks interesting too. Looks like the Alps may get some huge falls of snow with that temperature gradient. Good to see Greenland above average too. Cold air over NE Canada threatens to spill into the NW Atlantic but we may have a Scandi or Greenland high to fight our corner. The UK remains cold. Also the heatwave in Australia continues....

[kold weather]

All the runs that DON'T make the connection end up giving a cold spell a few days later, indeed 2 of those runs end up with tasty looking channel lows (and one of them ends up with TWO!)

Anyway ensembles are overall cracking, as Man with Bread said, there is a pretty strong signal for the Euro trough to remain ,and as long as that remains the case any disrupting troughs/lows that come from the main PV lobe in NE Canada is probably going rotate either just over us, or to the south and provide various snow opportunities.

BEST ensembles of the year from the GFS btw.

ps, thickness of around 512 on the para at 300hrs for the Midlands, anything coming out of that sky will be snow for sure and countrywide depths between 10-20cms...

 

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[supernova]

GFS Para happy to join the ice party. Interest throughout the run but hard not to share this little beauty, even though it's far into FI.

[kold weather]

18 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Key thing to watch over the coming days is whether that mean T850 can get to -10 or below around the 27th/28th.

Parallel 06z sort of painting a picture of what is the most likely trend towards early Feb.

GP, I'm watching closely because we could ge the holy grail, a successful East/North/east transition without any mild sectors. Its very rare and does need everything in balance, a few ensemble members do manage it.

Of course there is also the real threat as you suggest of a breakdown from the west, which probably would get repelled back the way it came.

Supernova, the GFS para has a lot of snow on its run, its a fair bit snowier than the GFS 06z op!

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[Stu_London]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

All the runs that DON'T make the connection end up giving a cold spell a few days later, indeed 2 of those runs end up with tasty looking channel lows (and one of them ends up with TWO!)

Anyway ensembles are overall cracking, as Man with Bread said, there is a pretty strong signal for the Euro trough to remain ,and as long as that remains the case any disrupting troughs/lows that come from the main PV lobe in NE Canada is probably going rotate either just over us, or to the south and provide various snow opportunities.

BEST ensembles of the year from the GFS btw.

ps, thickness of around 512 on the para at 300hrs for the Midlands, anything coming out of that sky will be snow for sure and countrywide depths between 10-20cms...

 

 

Lets hope we don't get sandwiched in any mild sectors for too long.

In all seriousness, best model eye candy since 2010 for me. Last year was good but this evolution has been amazing.

Still a nagging concern is the tendency for output to downgrade slightly in the last 72-96 hours (snow events tonight and Tue have become more marginal in the last day or so). However the pattern at 96-144 is severe enough to take some marginal knocks so shouldn't be a problem unless there is a major change to upset the apple cart.

 

[supernova]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GP, I'm watching closely because we could ge the holy grail, a successful East/North/east transition without any mild sectors. Its very rare and does need everything in balance, a few ensemble members do manage it.

Of course there is also the real threat as you suggest of a breakdown from the west, which probably would get repelled back the way it came.

Supernova, the GFS para has a lot of snow on its run, its a fair bit snowier than the GFS 06z op!

That's not something you get to say very often about a run like that! Exciting times.

[andymusic]

33 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Good morning all, so, potentially an exciting period of weather comming up if its cold you are after, when will this start showing up in the weather forecasts as the online BBC and Metoffice forecasts could not be more different if they tried as early as tomorrow, certainly not overly cold and very dry if the Met is to be believed and the BBC Has rain tonight and most of tomorrow but again nothing cold of note, and going forward the lowest temps forecast are 4/5c.

all models especially the gfsp showing cms upon cms of snow and yes even in old money feet of snow in the coming weeks - nirvana is finally with us - just missed out personally today but 15 mins up the road had there 1st snow this morning - bbc n24 going all out for an easterly next week and sleet/snow liberally posted and breakfast beeb too - so everyone is now smelling the coffee - models/media/tv - we are on the final landing strip to a memorable feast of winter goodies - enjoy everyone and prepare for what's to come

[ICE COLD]

Well I only got up to day 8 on the GFS 6z run and then had to do some work . So I’ve just ran through from day 8 and it’s another stonker of a run . Very cold and snowy throughout. Unbelievable.

ps just seen GP posts as well. This is looking incredible. ?

[Stormeh]

Crazy amounts of snow showing on the GFS para

The next few weeks are going to be fun for us cold lovers with the possibility of memorable snow events for many of us. Hopefully the councils are prepared as some areas could come to standstill if charts like above were to come off.

[londonblizzard]

GEFS 6z is a bit of a downgrade compared to the 0z for upper air temps. Less members sustaining in the -10 to -15 range. 12z will probably upgrade again no doubt!

[Djdazzle]

2 hours ago, TEITS said:

Some classic old school charts appearing. Makes me want to listen to some Human League records!

Yep! Don’t You Want Me Baby was number 1 in December 1981!

[Snowy Hibbo]

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/01/europe-on-long-term-jan-19th.html
An extract from my latest long range outlook below. 
"My overall view is that from the last week of Jan to the second week of Feb, will feature major snow risks for the Southern Alps and the UK. There will be plenty of cold around, but not so much snow for the Northern Alps. We should see a neutralisation in the later stages of the month."

The outlook includes my thoughts on the GWO (click image below), and my thoughts on the latest EPS 46 run.

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Yep! Don’t You Want Me Baby was number 1 in December 1981!

They don't sound like a pop group do they, sound like more of a left wing pressure group.

[bluearmy]

just a reality check .... it might be worth thinking about some of the decent cold spells of the past decade and then viewing the archived runs that were being thrown out for the week two period back then. It’s very unusual to see the verification live up to the levels of deep cold etc that were being shown 9/13 days ahead .....what is important to see is the potential longevity of the pattern .... the more bites at a potential snow event we get, the more chances we have of one sticking ..... especially once we have surface cold in ...

onto the 12z’s ....... don’t expect to see anything in particular ......just enjoy the ride for the time being ....

[warrenb]

I still think if it happens next week it is a bonus, the fun and games will be in February..

[MidnightSnow]

11 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

GEFS 6z is a bit of a downgrade compared to the 0z for upper air temps. Less members sustaining in the -10 to -15 range. 12z will probably upgrade again no doubt!

I think we're in a rare situation where downgrades aren't really downgrades. I know technically you're right but it sounds worst than it is. With the incredible charts we're seeing atm, there's very little room for upgrades but plenty in the opposite direction. 

I love when there's room for error because even a watered down version would deliver the goods.

[nick sussex]

13 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

GEFS 6z is a bit of a downgrade compared to the 0z for upper air temps. Less members sustaining in the -10 to -15 range. 12z will probably upgrade again no doubt!

I haven’t had a chance to look at them all but upper air temps aren’t the best guide to snow chances if you have a set up of Atlantic trough disruption meeting embedded cold at the surface.

Snow can easily fall at just below freezing at the 850 level if you have low dew points from mainland Europe being pulled nw to meet any precip .

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

just a reality check .... it might be worth thinking about some of the decent cold spells of the past decade and then viewing the archived runs that were being thrown out for the week two period back then. It’s very unusual to see the verification live up to the levels of deep cold etc that were being shown 9/13 days ahead .....what is important to see is the potential longevity of the pattern .... the more bites at a potential snow event we get, the more chances we have of one sticking ..... especially once we have surface cold in ...

onto the 12z’s ....... don’t expect to see anything in particular ......just enjoy the ride for the time being ....

Interestingly December 2010 actually kept upgrading and extending the cold spell, so lets hope this keeps up that idea. The Feb 18 cold shot also got increasingly severe closer to the time (though did ease just a touch as we drew down to 48hrs out, but it was way lower than what the charts a week ago suggested).

However I know what you mean, typically it does weaken the cold flow as we draw closer, especially once we are out into FI.

Nick, your right, with fairly low thicknesses on most of those ensembles plus contientnal flow of some type should mean we shouldn't need 850hpa below -3c.

Edited January 18, 2019 by kold weather

[feb1991blizzard]

February looking cold as well - not just an isolated run either - this is about the time you want them on board as well.

[Frosty.]

There's very high confidence that the cold will become entrenched with plenty of snow opportunities..the GEFS 6z mean is cold / very cold throughout with ice days galore for some areas..there's potential for a winter wonderland during the next four weeks and hopefully that will continue through to the end of february!!!..what a great position for coldies..at last!

[Guest]

Beware, remember the great model backtrack from a couple of winters ago when at day 5/6C there were -10C - -15C uppers banging on the door for a sudden seismic and almost instant flip in the models and we ended up with mild westerlies? Not saying that will happen but with so many inter/intra model variances there's still a lot of up and downs to through yet. 

Being in pretty much the least snowiest place in the country I'm trying not to look at the precip charts, down here we are sheltered by a long land track from any direction north or west/east if that makes sense and have a warm body of water directly south such inevitably quick raises wet bulb temps with a flow from the sea. Hopefully as we get closes to the middle and end of next week some of little polar lows will start churning westwards which I would have thought is good possibility or better still a proper channel low.

I'm not a big cold or snow fan but if got to happen this is the best time as most optimal for cold and snow so it can go hard or go home as far as im concerned!! 

[WhiteFox]

8 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I still think if it happens next week it is a bonus, the fun and games will be in February..

Don't think so. For what seems like ages we have been looking at around 21st January for the change to cold. Anything before that is a bonus, but after is now coming into the realms of the expected. 

All signals are now green, with the exception of a single amber light for NE US storm over the weekend, and even if that amber light is correct, it is a slowdown in the charge towards cold rather than a turnaround. 

The background signals have been signposting this for some time, and now we are on the cusp. I'm looking forward to @nick sussex musings on irritating shortwaves that may be the difference between heavy snow and slightly less snow rather than the more normal knife-edge situations we usually find ourselves in.