Cold hunt - models and chat

[Tim Bland]

GFS disappointing for snow next week. First low (Tues night) is too far south so it stays mainly dry. Second low is too far north so rain for north and snow high ground in Scotland only. Still plenty of time for change. UKMO looks like it may scrape the far south on Tues night 

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nope - I would be comfortable at the moment 

On that run I’d say Glasgow Edinburgh 

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Low isn't moving as well out the way here which means the cold pool doesn't really come down.

Next slider may well slide Into air on the wrong side of marginal. We may even get our friend, the mild easterly at some point.

As others have said, solid agreement. Looking like the King Euro nailed this, well done to ICON again for going with it before ukmo and GFS.

Third time lucky guys?!

If the gfsp and the the ec are again on the same theme as the ukmo and previous ec plus this gfs run then yet again this winter, we are looking at Exeter being screwed by their own model (mogreps) in the 5/8 day period 

we can see a straight trend over at least  two runs and yet they are working on what is, in effect, out of date data.

Still time for things to revert back so maybe this should wait for tomorrow but you get my drift 

EDIT: this isn’t too fair on Exeter - I misread their further forecast which points at sliders the following week, not late next week 

Edited January 25, 2019 by bluearmy

[Weathizard]

Ouch. Surely we can’t be this unlucky, I’m not buying it. Good job I bought shares in that Prozac.  

Edited January 25, 2019 by Weathizard

[kold weather]

Next slider trying to detach and move towards us. May not be the worst of thing as it may help to introduce a fresh batch of colder air again.

Hopefully we can shove the whole lot southwards and get an upper high building in its place. Probably a long way from sustained cold still but won't be mild, plus good for the north.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

On that run I’d say Glasgow Edinburgh 

You’re missing the point on this approach - you need to wait for all the runs and ens suites and then make your call - you don’t react to every run as it comes out or you may as well not bother with the approach - you are atrneptimg to smooth out the knee jerk reactions to each run 

[johnwirral]

Possibilities for some of us on Mardi and Mercredi for the GFS on meteociel, unless all that stripy stuff is sleet.

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by johnwirral

[MKN]

People commenting on these runs like they are set in stone. The scenario that involves low pressure sliding south east in the manner that is shown for next week can be as far as 50 miles out at +24. And this entire thread is people writing things off because of what it shows at 120/144 etc.

[Hammer50]

I am not believing any thing until 6 hrs before too many broken promises from all models.

[Man With Beard]

Agreement maybe - but we're still working on fine lines as to where the Atlantic low will start to stall. 

If I put my summer hat on, I would always be nervous that a low forecast to stall west at T144 would be shunted further east even up until T72. 

And a low forecast to be in the N Sea, well you almost wouldn't question the fact it would slip further away from the east coast by T48. 

So why not now? 

In the mean time, some fun and games with that channel low for Tuesday - given how close it goes to Cornwall, I think I'll call it "Knockers nightmare"

[Eskimo]

Just now, MKN said:

People commenting on these runs like they are set in stone. The scenario that involves low pressure sliding south east in the manner that is shown for next week can be as far as 50 miles out at +24. And this entire thread is people writing things off because of what it shows at 120/144 etc.

Yeah that's great if the models were all showing completely different ideas but when they show (as is the case) the same theme, then that's the point you call it a day. 

[Mike Poole]

Meanwhile GEM T210 suggesting a different evolution.  Doesn't last in this run, but the NH profile looks primed - for something or other...

[Updated_Weather]

People need to remember and listen to what MetO said regarding the low pressure.. They will be uncertain and so will hte models until it has formed in 3 days! Don't take one run as gospel and it's set in stone.

Plenty of time

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

People need to remember and listen to what MetO said regarding the low pressure.. They will be uncertain and so will hte models until it has formed in 3 days! Don't take one run as gospel and it's set in stone.

Plenty of time

Wonder what the ECM is going to make of all this !!

[Duane S.]

Wow. So the concensus on here is that the UKMO is poor, really? People, again, perhaps taking +144 at face value?

Follow through from frame to frame and look at the NH profile. Look at the vertical advection up into W GL. Go back a couple of times and watch it through again. I love it. To my eyes that is a boom chart in the making. An easterly to follow on very quickly

 

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Wonder what the ECM is going to make of all this !!

We should probably give it some stella's then run, make it more fun and interesting

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Yeah that's great if the models were all showing completely different ideas but when they show (as is the case) the same theme, then that's the point you call it a day. 

 Doesn't make one ounce of difference. You will often see they all pick up on a slight change and all of a sudden it's a completely different outlook. These scenarios over the last 15 or so years I have been watching the models are of course closely watched. One minute it's snow for the Midlands then it's the Pennines then moves back south then ends up in everyone moaning as it goes into France for example all within the space of 3/4 days. You can't count on the same reliability as you can in a typical westerly pattern. FI is around 48-72 hours imo. 

[Snowman.]

NH T144 UKMO vs GFS

UKMO   GFS 

 

Pretty drastic changes at important parts over the pole. Don't think we should take D7-10 charts as gospel just yet...

Edited January 25, 2019 by Snowman.

[Banbury]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS disappointing for snow next week. First low (Tues night) is too far south so it stays mainly dry. Second low is too far north so rain for north and snow high ground in Scotland only. Still plenty of time for change. UKMO looks like it may scrape the far south on Tues night 

Early hours of Tuesday has snow across parts of England and Wales - what's made you come to your conclusion?

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

We should probably give it some stella's then run, make it more fun and interesting

I was thinking something a little stronger than Stella! I personally think the models are all gonna switch come morning to a cold outlook again. Maybe they're just tired today, it is Friday after all... Plenty of time for them to switch back. The low hasn't even formed yet!!

[Bristawl Si]

I make it Cold Chase number 6 this Winter that looks like imploding a few days out. Never known a Winter like it on here for so many Larry Let-Downs; truly.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

We should probably give it some stella's then run, make it more fun and interesting

If the 06Z FV3 was ice-cold Stella, its older sibling's 12Z is one those 12 for £1.50 cans of lukewarm Carlsberg!

Edited January 25, 2019 by Ed Stone

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Agreement maybe - but we're still working on fine lines as to where the Atlantic low will start to stall. 

If I put my summer hat on, I would always be nervous that a low forecast to stall west at T144 would be shunted further east even up until T72. 

And a low forecast to be in the N Sea, well you almost wouldn't question the fact it would slip further away from the east coast by T48. 

So why not now? 

In the mean time, some fun and games with that channel low for Tuesday - given how close it goes to Cornwall, I think I'll call it "Knockers nightmare"

Presumably because the trop zonal flow is slowing with interference from higher up  .....

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, MKN said:

 Doesn't make one ounce of difference. You will often see they all pick up on a slight change and all of a sudden it's a completely different outlook. These scenarios over the last 15 or so years I have been watching the models are of course closely watched. One minute it's snow for the Midlands then it's the Pennines then moves back south then ends up in everyone moaning as it goes into France for example all within the space of 3/4 days. You can't count on the same reliability as you can in a typical westerly pattern. FI is around 48-72 hours imo. 

Whilst true it gives huge confidence to anyone that that solution is right, when you have all the main models with differing datas/algorithm and they all come to more or less an identical solution, then I think to expect anything other than what is shown is probably hopecasting at best, and ignorance at worst.

It can change, but the trend is very solid, indeed the ECM looks more or less unchanged now for 2-3 days and the point is the evolution is likely to be correct if all the models are showing the same thing.

For us in the south, its time to move on from this, its not happening. Tuesday still has a chance, and who knows after Friday...but that LP isn't happening for jus down here. For the north, there is still enough movement and uncertainty to suggest change.

PS- here comes that pressure rise over to our NE/N again...next time on the "chase".

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[steveinsussex]

So the low will form, it will impact our weather... the models will toy with different scenarios between now and then but look for trends...