Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

Hmmm looks different out to 96hrs from previously, at least with regards to how it phases with the first low that comes along.

Chris, no norhern areas should still do well, much more uncertain for the south and I think that's where a lot of the negative comments are coming from.

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[nick sussex]

The ECM quite different over the ne USA at day 4 compared to the GFS and UKMO.

Still trying to work out if this is good or bad yet!

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Hmmm looks different out to 96hrs from previously, at least with regards to how it phases with the first low that comes along.

Chris, no norhern areas should still do well, much more uncertain for the south and I think that's where a lot of the negative comments are coming from.

 

Good different?

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Genuine question,  its very negative about next week in here, but in the Northern regional threads people seem fairly upbeat about snow chances, are all the folk in the regional thread deluded?

You'll probably notice the ones being downbeat on here live in the South. Those who are upbeat live in the North where the risk of snow looks good!

[Methuselah]

FV3 certainly more in line with the MetO update; does nothing at all with that nasty Atlantic LP, the GFS threw out...

[frosty ground]

Is t the low deepening because of the low heights over Europe back west into the Atlantic and the differences over the US is pretty mute at this point?

[Snowman.]

12z Yesterday 144 vs T120 Today

 

Yesterday  Today 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mmm, looks better rugby ball shaped low, now about the track

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 looks like a stronger push of the ridge than UKMO at same time

[MKN]

ECM 120 significantly different to its previous run. These variations imo will continue for another couple of days so wont be taking anything it shows at this range as gospel 

[Sky Full]

In an effort to keep everyone's hopes alive for a proper cold spell this winter, I am daring to post more charts from the CFS (1 mnth) which is still promoting a frigid few days in mid-February:

  

The odds are stacked against this from happening but it remains a possible outcome and only three weeks away......

 

[kold weather]

Well the 12z ECM looking much better at 120hrs. Its basically between the GFS and the GFSP.

Interesting though, closer to what we are needing.

[tight isobar]

..

In line..with the wedge in behind..and partial phasing..

See where she goes..already decent though early on..with some possible surprise stuff..

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

ECM much further South and barely even develops Tuesdays low on this run

[Deep Snow please]

3 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Genuine question,  its very negative about next week in here, but in the Northern regional threads people seem fairly upbeat about snow chances, are all the folk in the regional thread deluded?

Look at the locations of posters (if on a phone go to the three dots at the top and click "request desktop site" to see to see them". You'll soon get the jist.

 

There's an event for the north of the country and a tentative event for the south of the country at present. 

[bluearmy]

ec op takes a band of wintry precip (sleet/snow) west to east on tues - check out yesterdays T120 FAX with the occlusion .. 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM quite different over the ne USA at day 4 compared to the GFS and UKMO.

Still trying to work out if this is good or bad yet!

Looks better to me Nick.

[MattStoke]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

You'll probably notice the ones being downbeat on here live in the South. Those who are upbeat live in the North where the risk of snow looks good!

And us in the middle don’t know what way to look.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

ECM much further South and barely even develops Tuesdays low on this run

What i wanna see..

as that could open up in nearer time frame..

And a little shunt also...puts the meto prog...in the picture..@the crucial point.

[bluearmy]

you can see how things are difficult to resolve for day 6 on that op  - we end up in a similar place but if the phasing is slightly different then the consequences for that low will also be - odds still firmly stacked on the deep system as shown but the gfsp solution isn't so far fetched. 

[Mike Poole]

OK it's similar to UKMO at T144, with this run we get to see what happens after:

If the ridge is going to happen, it's vital where the trough sits viz-a-viz the UK, time for the whole lot to move east and we may need that?

[MKN]

ECM 144 closer to the mark but still to far north for the majority here and therfor a largely rain event. Significantly though a step in the right direction overall and a few more like it could see the UK remaining largely on the cold/snowy side.

[kold weather]

Well the ECM at 144hrs explodes the LP just to the west and forces a lot of milder air into the UK and so probably a snow-rain transition for most of the country, with more in the north obviously. Could do with the low not exploding just to our west, like the GFSP.

Certainly a better run though, but in the end we end up in the same location.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Lampostwatcher]

Ecm still saying snow for the south tues night

[tight isobar]

The CLEAR  cut off point ..in regards nxt weeks shananigans..

Im happy 2 now watch for development within those time scales...

And just enjoy out-age..

Thereafter..

For evolutionary-developments...

A definitive step in the rite direction..

Ens will be of decent viewing....i think ??!!

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar