Cold hunt - models and chat

[chris55]

I don’t really have faith in the blow up low at 144,  at 120 EC and UKMO both have nice developments, the little ridge ahead slowing the merging of the trough to the east with the one to the west. 

Hole fire on any confirmation of the pattern.

I do recall an overblown trough dropping into Europe  and bringing us a stonking easterly.....then it all went tits up. The trough ended up filling. 

 

[bluearmy]

A small swing better day 6/7 in the eps mean

[jules216]

Last one on NAO tonight see where its trending

[Frosty.]

Too many are treating the latest Ecm run longer term as gospel but there is a lot of uncertainty..however, there is certainty that it will be turning colder from the North during Sunday and then progressively colder still on Mon / Tues into next midweek! 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Frosty.

[Yarmy]

The US Government shutdown has ended! That means 800,000 people will start getting paid again, but more importantly we get to see the UKMO T168.

[northwestsnow]

EC mean shows the det to be very progressive with the milder air at 144..

mean

det

[TEITS]

35 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Those 'background signals' 

Back in Dec I said "Background Signals" mean nothing unless the benefits are being shown in the reliable timeframe in the model ouput. I said exactly the same last winter aswell, although I recieved alot of flak for saying so. This winter so far has proved this to be very true.

The biggest hurdle for weather forecasting beyond 7 days is simply due to the chaos theory and even with the massive increase in computing power they struggle to resolve this. When I think back to the 1980s and those countryfile weekly forecasts you have to say we haven't progressed very much if you compare computing power back then and now. Fair enough we have seen an improvement in short term forecasts and maybe 7-10 days but thats about it in my opinion.

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM Op well on the warm side of the mean at the very end and it's at the top end of the spread end of the month and early Feb

[northwestsnow]

In relation to the above there are obviously quite a few members who take the low further south,which has a knock on effect down the line..

Fact of the matter is we need to see one of the better ens members, sharpish!

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM Op well on the warm side of the mean at the very end and it's at the top end of the spread end of the month and early Feb

It keeps doing this day after day, software error or something? 

[shaky]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean shows the det to be very progressive with the milder air at 144..

mean

det

Was thinkin the exact same thing when it blew the low up just like that cos the 120 hour chart looked better than this morning and looked really promising!!not convinced with that deep low yet and i have a gut feeling we could still see a sliding low on tomorrows 00z run!!things looking better this evening though!!

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM Op well on the warm side of the mean at the very end and it's at the top end of the spread end of the month and early Feb

Confirms what i just posted , thanks

The key timeframe there is just about enough wriggle room for a different picture to emerge- its not beyond the realms we could see the previously observed trend of sliding lows further south than originally modeled occurring - but its still the outsider imo.

Its obviously tight for London but gives more scope for nothern areas..

Edited January 25, 2019 by northwestsnow

[kold weather]

It maybe that the ECM op is at higher resolution. so is spotting the smaller arteas of higher 850hpa. I'd suspect it'd do the same in a strong cold spell as well.

The ensembles really starting to strengthen that low on Tuesday, though still some real uncertainty.

Broadly the stronger it is, the more north it will go, around 985mbs bring the Midlands well into play. Quite a few evolve differently and more aggressively than the ECM op.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

ensembles GEM 12z

    

  

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z

      worth keeping an eye on a scandi high developing 

ensemble NAEFS 12z also seems to have switched focus of above average heights more toward scandi

 

 

 

[SLEETY]

Wow at no gaps, any chance that permutation can verify, just once, please 

[Tim Bland]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM Op well on the warm side of the mean at the very end and it's at the top end of the spread end of the month and early Feb

Whichever way you look at it there is little prospect of a proper cold spell before second week of Feb. Looks like another bust on the extension from mid jan to late jan perhaps late feb now ?

Ps is it really that desperate that we are pinning our hopes on individual ensembles from Nogaps

Edited January 25, 2019 by Tim Bland

[snowbob]

Ecm is a massive outlier 

imagine the comments or panic if it was that much out the other way

“writing on the wall ain’t gonna happen”

”looks dodgy”

”we are on thin ice “

cmon it works both ways

Edited January 25, 2019 by snowbob

[kold weather]

I'd say for Tiuesday-Wednesday in the south 50% have at least some snow (average is probably close to an inch) and 30% go for the big guns, those runs give anywhere between 6-12 inches for the south. So probably not likely, but its a significant chance.

[Don]

51 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Lets not forget hat GFSp is still positive for Long term cold and ECM has some snow for all Tuesday. Meto wouldn’t have put out the below  if they were not confirdent 

I (almost) have to laugh, snow on that chart literally misses me by a few miles!  All subject to change of course.

[Don]

54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH  im no fan of seasonal models, i was taken in by the consistency of EC 46 but lets call a spade a spade, at this juncture its looking more and more like a bust..

I suspect Exeter will be making changes tomorrow, i was pleasently suprised by todays but come tomorrow...

We could of course see a flip tomorrow but i wont be holding my breath..

Hopefully a few snow events for some next week.

 

But to be fair, the 15-30 dayer is somewhat out of the shorter model ranges.  I see your point, though.

[Disco_Stu]

I'm optimistic, I still think that there will be another SSW with down well and loads of potential and background signals that will deliver a beast and snowmaggedon. All in the reliable timeframe of 11 months!!!! You heard it here first. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Ps is it really that desperate that we are pinning our hopes on individual ensembles from Nogaps

I am not "pinning my hopes" on individual ensembles just highlighting the fact that a Scandi high and / or other forms of blocking remain a possibility and could well become more frequent within the models in the not too distant future given the MJO looking like heading toward a phase more suitable for blocked conditions and the probability that the models are still handling the strat warming(s) / downwelling effects.  

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I (almost) have to laugh, snow on that chart literally misses me by a few miles!  All subject to change of course.

Half an inch to an inch at best for most of south on that so pretty poor effort away from hills..

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

I (almost) have to laugh, snow on that chart literally misses me by a few miles!  All subject to change of course.

I wouldn't worry those snow charts from Weather US are hopeless as Nick L has said numerous times

[snowray]

21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM Op well on the warm side of the mean at the very end and it's at the top end of the spread end of the month and early Feb

Yes a clear mild outlier by D10, also in the all important D5/6/7 it is way above the mean. This is very positive stuff, if it's that much out on the London ensembles things should be even rosier further north. Seriously, big relief.

Edited January 25, 2019 by snowray