Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I think the above post Alderc sums up some people's thoughts on the back of 1 6z run. Worse summer since 2012..Talk about split personality disorders.. Lets at least wait to see where it sits in the ens. 

If it’s not the wettest of the ensemble grouping I’ll probably fall of my chair...

[Mr Frost]

If you live in the Western side of the UK or Ireland you are taking this GFS run all day long!

After days and days of rain here I will welcome a few warm and sunny days with temps over 20 degrees with open arms! (Ties in nicely with the thoughts of the Metoffice extended outlook) 

I keep reading about drought conditions and people wishing they had rain in Southern/Eastern parts of England - so surely this is a good run for them? 

GFS 06z run from +6 to +192

198+ to 384

 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Methuselah]

So that was the GFS 06Z...And, despite the usual 'doomsday ejaculations', it still looks unlikely that anyone will be experiencing torrents of rain, cats and dogs, gushing from their monitors, any time soon:

 

The GFS is a numerical model; it doesn't control the weather!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

If you live in the Western side of the UK or Ireland you are taking this GFS run all day long!

After days and days of rain here I will welcome a few warm and sunny days with temps over 20 degrees with open arms! (Ties in nicely with the thoughts of the Metoffice extended outlook) 

I keep reading about drought conditions and people wishing they had rain in Southern/Eastern parts of England - so surely this is a good run for them? 

GFS 06z run from +6 to +192

198+ to 384+

 

This is why I mentioned ice cream van weather Mr frost. There is no in my backyard ism from me. Some will point out its a Terrible forecast because its not great in there area. Yes GFS to me looks like bringing some decent weather to your neck of the woods.... But alot water to flow under the bridge just yet... Or according to some... A monsoon.....

Edited June 6, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

19 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yes a lot of rain , this could be one of the worst summers we have had since 2012. It could even beat 2012 for rubbish weather

Agreed. Just far too much northern blocking, very rarely can you write off a summer so early on based on current patterns and I think 2019 is just one of those years, northern blocking is just too intense on the ecm, gfs seems to be catching on.  Any fine settled spells this summer are likely to be 'blips' and short lived such as the fine settled spells of May 2012 and July 2012.  Fingers crossed for August.

[mushymanrob]

how irregular.... i dont think ive ever seen 'hot' uppers arriving from the northeast before... but i expect itll be rather breezy, overcast and wet (in the southeast, the northwest faring better)  IF these charts become reality.

[Methuselah]

And here's a suggested pattern-change -- one of several alternative scenarios, I suspect:

 

 

Is summer 2012 becoming a newer, improved version of winter 1947, or something?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Agreed. Just far too much northern blocking, very rarely can you write off a summer so early on based on current patterns and I think 2019 is just one of those years, northern blocking is just too intense on the ecm, gfs seems to be catching on.  Any fine settled spells this summer are likely to be 'blips' and short lived such as the fine settled spells of May 2012 and July 2012.  Fingers crossed for August.

Wow.... That's 2 months down the drain.. Let's just go the whole hog and do away with August has well... Here's hoping for a sunny September...

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

This is why I mentioned ice cream van weather Mr frost. There is no in my backyard ism from me. Some will point out its a Terrible forecast because its not great in there area. Yes GFS to me looks like bringing some decent weather to your neck of the woods.... But alot water to flow under the bridge just yet... Or according to some... A monsoon.....

Are you laughing at my comment? The GFS is yes most probably an a massive outlier but it starts the rain falling Monday and doesn't really stop for 3days in places, this is only 4-5days. Any one have the precip charts from this mornings ECM to see how wet it was? 

Edit - the 06Z isn't really a massive wet outlier, lots of scatter but there is a theme there for an very very wet week next week. Ensembles get drier as you move westwards. 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Alderc

[northwestsnow]

Well all things considered , a better morning for those wanting something resembling June..

UKMO looks the pick of the big 3 at 144 and Exeter have now dropped their faulty prognosis of a northerly towards month end.

Are the wheels falling off this Greeny block?

[johnholmes]

Yes just to put a little objective input in here. Usually I leave you to play and make projections on each separate run but enough is enough.

I have just 'played' the Extra 00 and 06Z outputs for 500mb temperatures and surface isobars. I started at 144h and ran it out to 192h. 00z shows a ridge of high pressure moving in from the SW. 06Z shows nothing like that. So question for some of you.

Why is the 06Z the one you are basing your projections on, why not the 00Z?

There are two reasons I ask this.

1) 00Z has, usually, more data fed into it.

2) You are probably all sick and tired of this remark but it does mean a more accurate picture of what may happen with the weather- yes you guessed it. Stop, beyond 144h comparing run to run. Instead compare like with like, so 00z with 00z yesterday etc.

End of sermon.

I'll update re the anomaly charts sometime this evening once the latest NOAA charts are out.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Are you laughing at my comment? The GFS is yes most probably an a massive outlier but it starts the rain falling Monday and doesn't really stop for 3days in places, this is only 4-5days. Any one have the precip charts from this mornings ECM to see how wet it was? 

Edit - the 06Z isn't really a massive wet outlier, lots of scatter but there is a theme there for an very very wet week next week. Ensembles get drier as you move westwards. 

Nahh... Just a bit of humour Alderc.. I respect your input.. The GEFS 6z looking a bit more positive I may add. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Yes just to put a little objective input in here. Usually I leave you to play and make projections on each separate run but enough is enough.

I have just 'played' the Extra 00 and 06Z outputs for 500mb temperatures and surface isobars. I started at 144h and ran it out to 192h. 00z shows a ridge of high pressure moving in from the SW. 06Z shows nothing like that. So question for some of you.

Why is the 06Z the one you are basing your projections on, why not the 00Z?

There are two reasons I ask this.

1) 00Z has, usually, more data fed into it.

2) You are probably all sick and tired of this remark but it does mean a more accurate picture of what may happen with the weather- yes you guessed it. Stop, beyond 144h comparing run to run. Instead compare like with like, so 00z with 00z yesterday etc.

End of sermon.

I'll update re the anomaly charts sometime this evening once the latest NOAA charts are out.

Thanks john..ive mentioned many times before the 0z runs with more data input.. With the 6z and 18z being a bit more questionable. And I was quite surprised some wrote the 0z positive run off, for the less positive 6z run. Good post as always.. 

[Man With Beard]

EC clusters D8 - bit of a dogs dinner but still in general wants ridging north, troughing south

Probably unsettled for UK but possibly hot 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Wow.... That's 2 months down the drain.. Let's just go the whole hog and do away with August has well... Here's hoping for a sunny September...

Try some trivia....Can you name a summer that's seen so much intensifying HLB in June that wasn't a write off?

Edited June 6, 2019 by 38.5*C

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

EC clusters D8 - bit of a dogs dinner but still in general wants ridging north, troughing south

Probably unsettled for UK but possibly hot 

Hopefully an evolving picture with more emphasis on HP ...

I expect these clusters to look better tonight.

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

Can you name a summer that's seen so much intensifying HLB in June that wasn't a write off?

Pattern matching is even more fraught then trying to decipher model outputs, honest

 

[mb018538]

Here's the washout 6z accumulated ppn charts for the E/SE



A fairly hefty wet outlier, though the date around the 11th looks quite wet.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Try some trivia....Can you name a summer that's seen so much intensifying HLB in June that wasn't a write off?

If you want to write the entire summer season off based on current HLB.. feel free to do so. I really didn't realise this model watching business was turning into a pub quiz. 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Try some trivia....Can you name a summer that's seen so much intensifying HLB in June that wasn't a write off?

Here's one you would have written-off earlier:  A HL block, on June 5th, doesn't a washout summer make...

[StormChaseUK]

I have a great degree of faith in the front or back loaded summer philosophy

I tend to be more biased though when I see May and June written off as those are prime storm/plume months from experience.

Writing off summer I agree shouldn't really be done until August is out of the way. I'd be interested to know why the 00z/06z flipped so much as only 4 or 5 days out - it's more a positive on a reflection that it can change at such short notice.  It could change for the better again short notice.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The control seemed a warm outlier, the mean perhaps ever so slowly heading in the right direction... The FV3 does its usual twilight zone manoeuvre from going barmy to freezing literally instantly.. The rainfall spikes are nowhere near as bad as the control run would have us believe... All in all not bad... Even though I'm not a big fan of the 6 and 18z runs.. 

[Methuselah]

06Z ensembles still seem suggestive (and only suggestive!) of an upcoming pattern-change, to me?

 

 

Edited June 6, 2019 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

06Z ensembles still seem suggestive (and only suggestive!) of an upcoming pattern-change, to me?

 

 

Good to see it sitting near the bottom of the pile for the SLP ensembles.....clearly an unsettled outlier compared to the mean. Unusual to see a divergence of 20mb in SLP at 6 days away.....goes to show that anything past day 5/6 at the moment is pretty much bin fodder.

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Here's one you would have written-off earlier:  A HL block, on June 5th, doesn't a washout summer make...

But, to be fair, I thought I'd see what the overall pattern was in 1972, arguably the very worst summer I can remember:  The perils of pattern-matching?