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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Lots of outcomes this morning - very surprised at gfs and ukmo doing a 180 from the last few days! ECM not quite on the same page so best to urge caution at this stage, a finely poised situation. That said, a very windy but warm 192 hour chart, western areas could get very warm from that set up.

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Sky Full Accomplished

Sky Full

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
Posted

ECM +168hr:

image.thumb.gif.08cd531f88e27d0eee4e9acf49490113.gif

At least it's trying - not quite managed to produce a really settled high pressure yet but getting there!  Is this a case of 'more runs needed'?

 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

ECM getting there but not quite, still doesn’t drop the Greeny high and as a result the ridging regresses quickly north leaving the south especially exposed to unsettled conditions. 

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

The ecm take on next week with the energy flows vis the amplification establishing a high cell to the NW and low pressure to the south and by T180 a strong north easterly over the UK and CAA along the east coast.(is this along the lines that Exeter are thinking?)

t132.thumb.png.a3b239ab56bdf39df466e199a5d812ab.pngt156.thumb.png.57c5bd3c31348f3ab4171ffd47e27450.pngt180.thumb.png.f93085f4fd09a9c641b4d60886d0e4da.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

I wouldn’t worry too much about the finer details of the ecm at this stage, the better trend is to have the high build in at all, the last few days haven’t showed this to be favourable at all. Might take another day to really nail it down, as depending where the trough goes will have a massive impact on what we end up with. Encouraging none the less!

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I wouldn’t worry too much about the finer details of the ecm at this stage, the better trend is to have the high build in at all, the last few days haven’t showed this to be favourable at all. Might take another day to really nail it down, as depending where the trough goes will have a massive impact on what we end up with. Encouraging none the less!

Hopefully the Op just has the High too far North West. Wait for the ensembles until I panic. Liking the GFS op though.

Edited by mountain shadow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well, well; a much better run from the 00Z::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.0d8d2b431e34597f1fa9e9ef4c7941fa.pngimage.thumb.png.35a2bca91d91e1be037f86649681f834.png 

Though the FV3 goes down an entirely different route, and doesn't improve until the very end:

image.thumb.png.b98393b118c3a45c958924465ae571b0.pngimage.thumb.png.4283530937d61b5b218991021019c0b4.png

GEFS ensembles also hint at some better weather; a drier and warmer pattern looks likely, but let's wait for the actual weather...?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.cfd265479c22812bb18102c397e194d5.pngimage.thumb.png.7e558a8d25b47f606fbc29ee8ffda1c3.png 

image.thumb.png.31c20ea84b5648975a247a5333c08300.pngimage.thumb.png.9d70ac757efe5f4bc6d10585660fdc64.png

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

ECM op goes off on one later on . A lot of uncertainty next week as stated by the bbc weather for the week ahead , the battle between high and low pressure. 

6CAAD736-A138-4820-93DB-61F2636A7ADF.png

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

00z ECM mean backing a rise in pressure next week

In central southern Scotland pressure peaks at around 1027mb the Op isn't supported for going above 1030mb a very slow decline again from around the 13th/14th but nothing major with the run ending around 1017mb

 graphe_ens3.thumb.png.04108efca9e4c827227a7956205673ca.png

Further south in London pressure peaks at around 1021mb on the mean on the 9th and 12th a steady fall again towards the end but like above nothing major ending around 1017mn

1424183776_graphe_ens3(1).thumb.png.49bfe041642aa361d58e15c437c84cc0.png

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted (edited)

We might be seeing the models respond to the MJO propagating east more readily than predicted - more and more ensembles showing a shift in the blocking configuration, and more op runs picking up on that too now.

It’s a tale of fine margins yes, but in the simplest sense when you boil it all down - it makes sense that if the tropical pattern is changing, then so should the pattern across the mid-latitudes to at least some degree. Good news when the one in place is poor (unless you value the rain more and/or like it cool. Even tomorrow’s soaking followed by weekend shower won’t replenish water stores for all. Maybe even most).

Edited by Singularity
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

To indicate how variable even the 500 mb anomaly charts can be, see below

GFS had been fairly steady showing troughing as the main feature over the past 10 days. Not so ECMWF it has shown 4 different versions in that time. NOAA has been pretty consistent with troughing being the main feature but some indication on its 6-10 yesterday of +ve heights just west of the UK. I'll see what it shows this evening.

This leaves me fence sitting as unless all 3, especially NOAA show consistency over at least 3 days then they are no more reliable than the 4x or 2x daily synoptic outputs.

Anyway EC-GFS this morning and NOAA last evening are shown below. I'll update when I see the NOAA evening output later.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

 

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

The shift on the 00z was too quick for better weather.   I don't trust that blip, I think the 06z will move back to the original projection.

Might be wrong but will be interesting to see.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Amazing how 2 models from the same camp can see things so differently spaced just 4 hours apart. The 6z appears to be bringing warmth from the NE... But also shows a low pressure to our East, which was not evident on the 0z.

Its definitely bringing some warmth though.Thats nice to see... +12 uppers to the North... Could it finally be ice cream van weather... 192hrs...not to bad, plenty of warmth.... That's me done, beyond this is fantasy island...

gfs-0-168.thumb.png.978630dc45e49bbacb9e67d040f1b971.png

gfs-1-168.png

gfs-1-174.png

gfs-1-180.png

gfs-1-186.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-1-192.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Back down to earth on the 6z. The 00z probably too optimistic in building a strong UK high, ECM clusters don’t really favour that outcome either. Lots still to be decided!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ugh, GFS is a literally a disaster waiting to happen, high pressure builds in too far west and regresses quickly north joining up with the ever strong Greeny high. This allows low pressure to develop over central Europe spewing fronts westwards over eastern England leading to severe flooding. Don't think I've ever seen GFS accumulated precip totals close to 150mm in the London area at 200hrs before. Hopefully a MASSIVE outlier but backs up this mornings ECM 

Edited by Alderc
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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted (edited)

Sadly as I thought the 00z was an error. Looked fantastic too ! 

Edited by StormChaseUK
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Amazing how 2 models from the same camp can see things so differently spaced just 4 hours apart. The 6z appears to be bringing warmth from the NE... But also shows a low pressure to our East, which was not evident on the 0z.

Its definitely bringing some warmth though.Thats nice to see... +12 uppers to the North... Could it finally be ice cream van weather... 192hrs...not to bad, plenty of warmth.... That's me done, beyond this is fantasy island...

gfs-0-168.thumb.png.978630dc45e49bbacb9e67d040f1b971.png

gfs-1-168.png

gfs-1-174.png

gfs-1-180.png

gfs-1-186.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-1-192.png

Clearly you've not looked at the precip with these charts, its not Ice-cream van weather its RNLI lifeboats through the streets of London weather......

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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

Yes a lot of rain , this could be one of the worst summers we have had since 2012. It could even beat 2012 for rubbish weather

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Clearly you've not looked at the precip with these charts, its not Ice-cream van weather its RNLI lifeboats through the streets of London weather......

I was referring to some parts of the NW... With regards to the uppers. Yes it would be E/SE areas in the firing line... In all honesty it's likely to be an outlier... Every GFS run is giving a completely different outcome, and to make a call of life boats is a little eccentric don't you think. 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I was referring to some parts of the NW... With regards to the uppers. Yes it would be E/SE areas in the firing line... In all honesty it's likely to be an outlier... Every GFS run is giving a completely different outcome, and to make a call of life boats is a little eccentric don't you think. 

Maybe a touch alarmist lol but since the advent of online weather watching there are the highest spot totals I’ve ever seen over London and yes off course most likely an outlier. But I think even in the north and west it’s still pretty meh.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, Alderc said:

Maybe a touch alarmist lol but since the advent of online weather watching there are the highest spot totals I’ve ever seen over London and yes off course most likely an outlier. But I think even in the north and west it’s still pretty meh.

I think the above post Alderc sums up some people's thoughts on the back of 1 6z run. Worse summer since 2012..Talk about split personality disorders.. Lets at least wait to see where it sits in the ens. 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Jeez there are 1 or 2 manic depressives on this forum, seemingly unable to contain the doom at every mediocre operational.

I thought it was reserved for winter..

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