Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Guest]

Normal service resumed from GFS 00z, only the briefest of rest-bites from the trough and low pressure as through next a new low containing copious amounts of moisture approaches from the southwest during next. UKMO slightly more positive but at 144hrs still has low pressure steaming into towards the south west approaches. 

Don’t think a I actually believed when I posted a couple of whiny posts at the back end of May saying June could be a write off if the pattern locked in but here we are with a dreadful June is almost Unavoidable now. 

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Normal service resumed from GFS 00z, only the briefest of rest-bites from the trough and low pressure as through next a new low containing copious amounts of moisture approaches from the southwest during next. UKMO slightly more positive but at 144hrs still has low pressure steaming into towards the south west approaches. 

Don’t think a I actually believed when I posted a couple of whiny posts at the back end of May saying June could be a write off if the pattern locked in but here we are with a dreadful June is almost Unavoidable now. 

Agreed.  GFS op brings the upper trough right back into the British Isles. 

Terrible run.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Normal service resumed from GFS 00z, only the briefest of rest-bites from the trough and low pressure as through next a new low containing copious amounts of moisture approaches from the southwest during next. UKMO slightly more positive but at 144hrs still has low pressure steaming into towards the south west approaches. 

Don’t think a I actually believed when I posted a couple of whiny posts at the back end of May saying June could be a write off if the pattern locked in but here we are with a dreadful June is almost Unavoidable now. 

I don't necessarily think June is a write off, something could pop up at relatively short notice. Looks an ask though admittedly.

What concerns me about next week is that it's possible the modelling is under doing the rainfall at this point. We may find as we move to within 4/5 days that those smaller areas of rain become beefed up somewhat, especially if warmer air is pulled into the mix. It seemed to happen with this current spell...the modelling looked ripe for some heavy rain but it wasn't really picked up until 4/5 days pre onset.

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I don't necessarily think June is a write off, something could pop up at relatively short notice. Looks an ask though admittedly.

What concerns me about next week is that it's possible the modelling is under doing the rainfall at this point. We may find as we move to within 4/5 days that those smaller areas of rain become beefed up somewhat, especially if warmer air is pulled into the mix. It seemed to happen with this current spell...the modelling looked ripe for some heavy rain but it wasn't really picked up until 4/5 days pre onset.

Agreed first things I did was check the accumulated precip, doesn’t seem to tie into the Synoptics, a low coming from that far south in the Atlantic would have masses of moisture with it. 

To be fair it looks a touch drier over the weekend although inland infill will probably ruin most of the day. 

Tomorrow will be the 12th consecutive day of not reaching 20c here, which matches the entire number of days that 20c wasn’t reached here last summer (depressing given it’ll only be the 13th June) but that run could easily continue way into next week a seas breezes and cooler airmasses  will dominate even the less bad days.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

29 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Agreed.  GFS op brings the upper trough right back into the British Isles. 

Terrible run.

Decent for here, wet yes, but most days making 20 degrees for north west midlands, key thing S/SW breeze rare for June

[mb018538]

00z GFS op was on the cold side/ a bit of an outlier from day 5-10 anyway.

I think people need to perhaps temper their expectations here - the prognosis was only ever for a trough out west/ridge over the UK set-up - no high pressure domination at this stage.



NOAA showing this quite well. 

[mountain shadow]

31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

00z GFS op was on the cold side/ a bit of an outlier from day 5-10 anyway.

I think people need to perhaps temper their expectations here - the prognosis was only ever for a trough out west/ridge over the UK set-up - no high pressure domination at this stage.



NOAA showing this quite well. 

Yes.  But if the upper trough was more mid Atlantic then we could have brought in a drier continental influence,  instead the upper trough is further West.

[mb018538]

ECM potentially looking quite thundery this morning, as a low pressure wrapped up in plenty of very warm air crosses the UK

Edited June 12, 2019 by mb018538

[northwestsnow]

EC breaking down heights to the North west by day 9-

Ok its only one run but summer lovers absolutely need to see the back of these heights before we can hope for something better.

Does anyone know why WZ is not working properly with ECM? Is it because of some changes to the model i wonder?

Edited June 12, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Well i got day 10 on wetter fwiw -

As one can see, the heights completely drained from Greenland...

 

[Methuselah]

Still plenty of cause for optimism in today's 00Z FV3: that overall pattern changes, by T144 and stays 'changed' (as in there being no dominant Northern Blocking) right until the end:

T144:  T180: 

T240:  T384:  

Anywho, back to the 'old' GEFS ensembles, and the op is clearly right at the cold end of the pack; though, hopefully, come Friday, when the FV3 finally takes over, all will be resolved?

          

          

[mb018538]

ECM is decent this morning - a hiccup as the low passes through, but pressure rebuilding from the SW, while falling to the N and NW around the Greenland area. 

[Methuselah]

ECM also degrades HLB with time:  

                                                         

[Downpour]

Looks like a classic NW/SE split to me in the short-medium term. Much improved temperatures in the SE next week, with 25c possible in London. All in all fairly standard summer fare at the ground at least down here (which is very pleasant). Longer term we want to hope ECM is right about collapsing the high over Greenland as we enter the astronomical summer. 

[johnholmes]

Looking at the 500 mb anomaly charts, they at last appear to suggest in the 14 day time frame at any rate that the persistent northern blocking will not be around in that period. I'll be more convinced if they show similar in 3 days time.

My notes this morning-

WED 12 June

The update shows ec-gfs both now suggesting troughing with no sign of ridging near uk. Noaa show a broad atlantic trough and also no sign of any ridging

All 3 no longer indicating the northern blocking being significant , at last! So a pattern change really as the n’ern ridging, with us for so long, is now not shown on any of the 3. Will this last? The noaa 8-14 suggests it will at least out to day 14!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i got day 10 on wetter fwiw -

As one can see, the heights completely drained from Greenland...

 

If we can get this into the T+144 timeframe I'll be more confident. There's been a few false dawns of late.

[northwestsnow]

EC mean showing the jet lifting north as heights break up to our North west by day 10..

[ANYWEATHER]

To be honest anything remotely summer like is always at day ten, a bit like gold at the end of a rainbow

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest anything remotely summer like is always at day ten, a bit like gold at the end of a rainbow

Just like record cold and snow, then?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest anything remotely summer like is always at day ten, a bit like gold at the end of a rainbow

I totally understand where you are coming from AW

Its an aspiration as it stands, i'm happy we have even that at the moment.

Any sort of light at the end of this horrible horrible tunnel is appreciated, i hope we get out of this rut ASAP, its horrid out there, again.

[Downpour]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest anything remotely summer like is always at day ten, a bit like gold at the end of a rainbow

Quite a misleading post, I'd venture. 

Next week is looking pretty good down here. If several days of temps 23c+ aren't "remotely like summer" then I don't know what is, to be perfectly honest. 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS and Euro bin any serious ridge development out to day 9. I cannot say that this summer should be for the bin but I can say that we are by that point at June 21st, getting on for 25% of the way through.

[Downpour]

15 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS and Euro bin any serious ridge development out to day 9. I cannot say that this summer should be for the bin but I can say that we are by that point at June 21st, getting on for 25% of the way through.

NW/SE split. Classic summer fare really – nothing out of the ordinary. 

 

[Methuselah]

06Z at T120 is fascinating:

[Guest]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

06Z at T120 is fascinating:

Not really because it provides the weakest of ridges that would likely be pretty cloudy with left over low level moisture from the exiting trough before the next low approaches from the south west.