Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not really because it provides the weakest of ridges that would likely be pretty cloudy with left over low level moisture from the exiting trough before the next low approaches from the south west.

Perhaps. But, such complexities are what some of us find 'fascinating'...?

[StormChaseUK]

The story of summer 2019.  UK acting as the low pressure breeding ground with heat moving up to our east. 

This pattern has repeated multiple times now, enough that should we should start accepting it rather than talking down those that point it out.

[Guest]

Looks as though we could be swapping a buckled Ridge / Trough / Ridge Jet pattern for flat southerly tracking Jet with the exit region planted of Cornwall and a barrage of Atlantic activity piling in. Worrying times.

[northwestsnow]

GFS 6Z promoting a very strong build of pressure to the SW after a few troublesome lows pass through- well into FI but a trend with support from EC 00z..

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

These vile model outputs that are making anywhere touching 20c seem like a heatwave while the real heat continues to be pumped up to our east with absolutely zero sign of that heat moving further west in our direction.

[mb018538]

Could be the models are lagging a bit in picking up the passage of the MJO? It’s gradually shifting eastwards into phase 4/5. Usually promotes an Atlantic trough and a ridge in NW Europe. We might not get this at day 5-7, but in the 10-14 day period it could start to develop as some models show. Don’t expect any heatwaves, just an improvement from now.

[Methuselah]

I tend to blame the leftovers from the final warming, myself: roaming blobs of cold air will always present predictors with problems...But, hopefully, things will now return something more 'normal'?

[Methuselah]

If something like this, FV3 at T384, were to develop, things would certainly 'normalise' somewhat...

 

 

[cfbath]

Could someone explain to me (in layman terms) what FV3 is and why it's output is different from the standard GFS output?

Is one considered more accurate / has a higher change of verifying than the other?

[StormChaseUK]

4 minutes ago, cfbath said:

Could someone explain to me (in layman terms) what FV3 is and why it's output is different from the standard GFS output?

Is one considered more accurate / has a higher change of verifying than the other?

I guess in layman terms it's a transition from Windows 7 to Windows 10 - I know FV3 had peformed well modelling hurricanes

[Summer Sun]

19 minutes ago, cfbath said:

Could someone explain to me (in layman terms) what FV3 is and why it's output is different from the standard GFS output?

Is one considered more accurate / has a higher change of verifying than the other?

FV3 or otherwise known as GFS P is the latest version which goes into testing prior to full release

It was due to go live earlier in the year but Donald Trumps government shutdown delayed it

The 2nd new release date when was also delayed as it was found to have a cold bias

The new release date is today current GFS will take about 20-minutes longer to update post t240 as more frames will be added I think it's every 3-hours instead of the current 12-hour gaps

Edited June 12, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Djdazzle]

Despite all of the doomsters on here, there are still positive signs going forward.

1. There is a pattern change from this vile current situation to become more of a NW / SE split - typical summer fare, but miles better than what we have now.

2. It will warm up.

3. Heights look like falling over Greenland.

4. The jet shows signs of moving north.

Sometimes the models take a while to latch on. The positive signs may just be seeds at the moment, but good things can grow from those seeds a little later down the line.

I have no problem with people posting what the models show, but it's the constant cherry picking of the worst options that becomes really wearing sometimes.Can't remember who it was, but one member criticised another for posting an FI chart showing summery conditions, then another day posted an unsettled chart in FI to try to prove their point. Total hypocrisy!

I'm more than willing to acknowledge hat the whole of June may be a write-off, but it's very unlikely. I'm pretty sure there will be some hot / very hot spells this summer.

[Methuselah]

Well, the 06Z ensembles look like a very mixed batch, to say the least:

                       

                       

[A.J]

24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Despite all of the doomsters on here, there are still positive signs going forward.

1. There is a pattern change from this vile current situation to become more of a NW / SE split - typical summer fare, but miles better than what we have now.

2. It will warm up.

3. Heights look like falling over Greenland.

4. The jet shows signs of moving north.

Sometimes the models take a while to latch on. The positive signs may just be seeds at the moment, but good things can grow from those seeds a little later down the line.

I have no problem with people posting what the models show, but it's the constant cherry picking of the worst options that becomes really wearing sometimes.Can't remember who it was, but one member criticised another for posting an FI chart showing summery conditions, then another day posted an unsettled chart in FI to try to prove their point. Total hypocrisy!

I'm more than willing to acknowledge hat the whole of June may be a write-off, but it's very unlikely. I'm pretty sure there will be some hot / very hot spells this summer.

likewise, I wish some would stop cherry pick charts from FI showing the best options (which also rarely ever verify).......One for the mods, maybe it's an idea to bring back the short term model discussion for say up to T120 and then have a more general longer range model thread for FI out to the far extreme (long range CFS that I know some like to post for giggles).....Maybe a return of the technical model discussion thread as there are some fine analytical non-biased posters on here @knocker @johnholmes  (for example) whos posts sometimes get drowned by quite a few less experienced folk who like to point score to argue their point

[Scorcher]

14 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

likewise, I wish some would stop cherry pick charts from FI showing the best options (which also rarely ever verify)

Not many doing that to be fair, most are just complaining and being negative. It would actually be nice to see a bit more of that type of post- at least it would be positive!

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, cfbath said:

Could someone explain to me (in layman terms) what FV3 is and why it's output is different from the standard GFS output?

Is one considered more accurate / has a higher change of verifying than the other?

FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA's Environmental Modeling System infrastructure

Hope that helps?

[Downpour]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Despite all of the doomsters on here, there are still positive signs going forward.

1. There is a pattern change from this vile current situation to become more of a NW / SE split - typical summer fare, but miles better than what we have now.

2. It will warm up.

3. Heights look like falling over Greenland.

4. The jet shows signs of moving north.

Sometimes the models take a while to latch on. The positive signs may just be seeds at the moment, but good things can grow from those seeds a little later down the line.

I have no problem with people posting what the models show, but it's the constant cherry picking of the worst options that becomes really wearing sometimes.Can't remember who it was, but one member criticised another for posting an FI chart showing summery conditions, then another day posted an unsettled chart in FI to try to prove their point. Total hypocrisy!

I'm more than willing to acknowledge hat the whole of June may be a write-off, but it's very unlikely. I'm pretty sure there will be some hot / very hot spells this summer.

A very fair and balanced summary. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I think the real worry for folk that are desperate for a forever high pressure ridden pattern should be that we don't want another drought. We need open heavens and a good rainfall event with low pressure breeding right over us. Yes the current pattern may look horrid when its sticking around but at least its easing away any drought concerns.  If we are to run into or flip back into another extended dry period this summer then at least we'll have the water rather than being lumbered with hosepipe bans and moors fires like last year

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, beerandkebab said:

likewise, I wish some would stop cherry pick charts from FI showing the best options (which also rarely ever verify).......One for the mods, maybe it's an idea to bring back the short term model discussion for say up to T120 and then have a more general longer range model thread for FI out to the far extreme (long range CFS that I know some like to post for giggles).....Maybe a return of the technical model discussion thread as there are some fine analytical non-biased posters on here @knocker @johnholmes  (for example) whos posts sometimes get drowned by quite a few less experienced folk who like to point score to argue their point

Were do we draw the line here though! We have the same problem in winter... As soon has someone shows day 10 charts for a cold snap, they are quickly told it will not verify! But the 10 day charts showing mild conditions will... Namely due to the fact its our default weather pattern! Alot have been posting 10-14 day charts on here showing how the rest of June is a write off, yet if you were to post a light at the end of the tunnel in 7 days time, they would simply laugh at you. I think the general concencous in posting CFS charts is to see if a pattern change is being indicated, rather than to annoy certain folks, or just to get a giigle!! If the 10 day plus charts look bad, it sometimes is refreshing to look further afield to see if the pattern shows signs of altering, personally I think you shouldn't be discredited for analysing it. The few of us searching for decent weather may be clutching at straws, but when there is little hope, we need to cling onto something! As for the point scoring, that's no longer an issue is it, we no longer obtain points for posting. Regarding current output it looks more seasonable... A quick glance further ahead shows the NW/SE split likely to devolop to see the month out and perhaps to start early July. Beyond that.... Who knows!! Just about any outcome is possible. 

[danm]

Agree with much of the above from @Mattwolves 

Worth remembering that our standard, default summer weather pattern is normally a NW/SE split - coolest and wettest the further NW you are, warmer and drier the further SE you are. This is what is starting to be shown in the model output for next week. Last summer’s prolonged and more importantly, widespread, warmth was very unusual. 

We should be framing what we consider good or bad in the model output against what is normal in the UK. Our current weather pattern is not normal - it is cooler and wetter than average - so moving towards something “normal” (NW/SE split) should be welcomed from the position we’re in now, even if it won’t deliver good weather everywhere in the short to medium term. 

[Downpour]

1 hour ago, 38.5*C said:

I think the real worry for folk that are desperate for a forever high pressure ridden pattern should be that we don't want another drought. We need open heavens and a good rainfall event with low pressure breeding right over us. Yes the current pattern may look horrid when its sticking around but at least its easing away any drought concerns.  If we are to run into or flip back into another extended dry period this summer then at least we'll have the water rather than being lumbered with hosepipe bans and moors fires like last year

Spot on – a very astute post. It's useful to bank some rainfall in June, to top up the water table. 

[Downpour]

25 minutes ago, danm said:

Agree with much of the above from @Mattwolves 

Worth remembering that our standard, default summer weather pattern is normally a NW/SE split - coolest and wettest the further NW you are, warmer and drier the further SE you are. This is what is starting to be shown in the model output for next week. Last summer’s prolonged and more importantly, widespread, warmth was very unusual. 

We should be framing what we consider good or bad in the model output against what is normal in the UK. Our current weather pattern is not normal - it is cooler and wetter than average - so moving towards something “normal” (NW/SE split) should be welcomed from the position we’re in now, even if it won’t deliver good weather everywhere in the short to medium term. 

Indeed the model out for as early as this weekend shows a classic NW/SE split developing – fairly bog standard summer fare really, but average conditions are pleasant in the SE. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Error on GFS charts? every 6 hours it's this

[northwestsnow]

GFS op promoting a change from the deluge as we head through next week.

[mushymanrob]

edited out... glitch sorted

Edited June 12, 2019 by mushymanrob