Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Greetings!

A start of a brand new year, and a fresh Model Output thread to go along with it.

While this thread can be used as a general place to analyse and discuss the models, there is a slower, more laid back model thread suitable for those who perhaps don't enjoy the rollercoaster ride that the model discussion becomes in Winter. If that's you and you would prefer to chat about the current and upcoming weather in a less cold slanted discussion, you're welcome to use this thread: Current and Future Weather - Nowcasting, Models, and Teleconnections

Come to think of it, this Winter so far has been a bit of a rollercoaster with a lot of wet weather about, athough it appears things have settled down somewhat with High Pressure having more influence, especially towards Southern UK. But not much snow (at least away from some of the mountains), nor has there been that many windstorms about. Will the last two thirds of Winter change that?

For some, this less unsettled period of weather will have been some welcome relief.

It looks at least the next few days or more will see a continuation of West to South-Westerly winds. Low Pressure systems spinning in from the Atlantic and circulating around low upper heights to the North and North-West of the UK. Ridges of High Pressure continuing to affect Southern UK at times where it could be quite mild with the Lows mostly directed to the North of the UK. The ridging, though, is likely to be dominant enough to provide some reasonable breaks between the weather systems. In fact, looking at the GFS charts below, most of the wind, rain and showers looks concentrated towards the North and West of the UK.

Monday could see a more general spell of rain spreading Eastwards through the UK, as the Atlantic Lows make an increasing pressence. 

Could be some strong gusts about too, particularly towards the West of the UK.

High Pressure regains control to the South and South-East of the UK on Tuesday, but further rain or drizzle could move into North-Western areas.

The fairly mobile Atlantic pattern, still with ridging hanging around at times towards the South or East of the UK (possibly becoming a more influential feature), may carry on up to 192 hours hours, as shown by both the 18Z GFS and 12Z GEM below:

The 12Z ECMWF rather similar too:

Albeit with less lower heights over Scandinavia and is kinda going for a bit of a Mid-Latitude block over the UK.

For those who love cold weather, there is some signs that High Pressure could migrate towards Scandinavia. Or remain somewhere close/over the UK. But, can the possible Scandinavian or European High Pressure gain enough Latitude to bring in a cold and unstable Easterly flow? Will the Greenland Vortex prove to be too powerful? Will it even happen at all?

Either way, it could be something to help keep some of the towels from being thrown on the ground. (But as is often the case, don't let some of the operational runs and ensembles drag you too far down the river of high hopes )

 

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Previous thread:

Thanks all!  (Time to go to bed )

Edited January 3, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[nick sussex]

The GFS op not having anything to do with the ECM trend of last night .

Very flat right upto day ten .

However the UKMO at day 6 is more amplified upstream . The key aspect upstream is how far south that deepish low near Newfoundland digs south and becomes absorbed into the main troughing into the Atlantic this downstream helps to push a ridge further ne.

We need as much energy digging as far south in the mid Atlantic to force that ridge sufficiently north .

The GEM shows some support for last nights ECM trend and this mornings UKMO also .

The ECM is out soon, if that sides with those then just perhaps we might see something a bit more interesting develop.

There’d still be a long way to go from there but a small chance is better than zip which is what the GFS op dishes out this morning .

Edited January 3, 2020 by nick sussex

[That ECM]

38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS op not having anything to do with the ECM trend of last night .

Very flat right upto day ten .

However the UKMO at day 6 is more amplified upstream . The key aspect upstream is how far south that deepish low near Newfoundland digs south and becomes absorbed into the main troughing into the Atlantic this downstream helps to push a ridge further ne.

We need as much energy digging as far south in the mid Atlantic to force that ridge sufficiently north .

The GEM shows some support for last nights ECM trend and this mornings UKMO also .

The ECM is out soon, if that sides with those then just perhaps we might see something a bit more interesting develop.

There’d still be a long way to go from there but a small chance is better than zip which is what the GFS op dishes out this morning .

Not going the way we would want. 

[IDO]

We can see the dynamic of this pressure rise to our east. The T150 chart:

 

HP cells running the parallels from the Pacific to our sector and bumping up against the upper trough. The forces interact and the block causes a pressure rise somewhere in Europe. On the GFS 0z as such:

That ever-present Pacific High of last year did a similar synoptic keeping a HP close to the UK. The Pacific High this time is displaced further east possibly explaining why the sympathetic ridge/height rise is further east?

This is clearly not tropical forcing and so any wave notions are going to be subdued and this would likely mean the tPV can still remain strong within these mechanics. From memory the UK high was a MLB and ECM did at times model it it go higher but was mostly wrong. The models do struggle with this type of setup and ECM along with UKMO will over do the rises so worth being wary of their more extreme charts. However, saying all that, there is a modicum of hope that something may develop down the line.

[mb018538]

Another day.....another set of runs going nowhere...



Above average right out to day 15. A lack of any rogue cold ensemble members. I only like to look a couple of weeks ahead as things can and do change quickly, so the last third of January is still up for grabs, albeit with very low chances of anything baring fruit.


 

[Nick F]

Morning all, although the ops look grim this morning, the extended ensemble means of both 00z GFS and EC out to day 15 still entertain the idea of ridging over Scandi and digging deep troughing over Atlantic toward mid-month. GEFS day 15 below,:

however, even if we get to this situation, can we get any decent cold around the high, Norway broke it's own and Scandinavia's highest winter temp record with 19C yesterday, so really need to see a cool down of NE Europe, though it can happen quickly in Jan / Feb.

Other issue could be the high is too far east and we get a not particularly cold SE flow.

But worth keeping up hope of height rises to the NE second half of Jan

Edited January 3, 2020 by Nick F

[Jordan S]

In terms of subtle signs of high pressure ridging north to Scandinavia the Ecm shows a subtle sign of a rise in pressure over and to the north of the UK by day 10 it would be a drier outlook but that would be unlikely to last as you can see low pressure systems are putting pressure on this and this is 10 days away so merely for interest purposes at the moment. 

Ecm..

Gem for the same time frame below shows high pressure building over the uk but attempting to ridge towards Scandinavia but as you can see low pressure systems are very much in control to the north of the UK and push the ridge away with the high then settling over and to the east of the UK bringing a gentle southeasterly wind. 

GFS ensembles the mode shows the rise in pressure to the east by day 10 but this is at that stage a mild synoptic pattern and an unsettled one especially so compared to Ecm and Gem with the wettest weather for Scotland and Northern Ireland and mild perhaps very mild at times. 

The most likely scenario atm towards and around day 10 is for high pressure to build close to southern parts of England and just to the east of the UK slowing the progression of Atlantic low pressure systems and moving them northwards for a time with very unsettled weather for northern parts even stormy on occasion at first in the next few days with still unsettled conditions further south but longer drier spells more likely especially by days 7-10 from now so around 10th-13th. 

Edited January 3, 2020 by jordan smith

[West is Best]

55 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Another day.....another set of runs going nowhere...



Above average right out to day 15. A lack of any rogue cold ensemble members. I only like to look a couple of weeks ahead as things can and do change quickly, so the last third of January is still up for grabs, albeit with very low chances of anything baring fruit.


 

Yep. It's pretty relentless right now.

The wettest autumn on record (hardly typical Mr Geordiesnow) is being followed by the most Atlantic-dominated winter that I can ever recall. The jet is ridiculously powerful.

So far, that is. Perhaps it will abate. Meanwhile, we continue to batten down the hatches.

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another set of runs offering very little prospect of a cold spell to develop for the UK.  When you look at many winters of the last 30 odd years that were poor for cold - the in the late 1990s strong El Ninos or La Ninas could be part of the explanation as to why those winters brought so little, as could winter 2007-08.  High solar activity could be part of the explanation in 88-89 and 89-90, and more recently the same could be true of 2013-14.  A strong El Nino could be the case in 2015-16.  I cannot understand what could have gone wrong with this winter, as the way things are going something has got to change soon to prevent this winter becoming a disaster and joining the list of some of those other winters I have mentioned.  We have also had a number of other winters that do not stand out as being unusually mild, but more so winters that more stand out as never getting their act together in setting up a good cold pattern.

[Beanz]

15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Another set of runs offering very little prospect of a cold spell to develop for the UK.  When you look at many winters of the last 30 odd years that were poor for cold - the in the late 1990s strong El Ninos or La Ninas could be part of the explanation as to why those winters brought so little, as could winter 2007-08.  High solar activity could be part of the explanation in 88-89 and 89-90, and more recently the same could be true of 2013-14.  A strong El Nino could be the case in 2015-16.  I cannot understand what could have gone wrong with this winter, as the way things are going something has got to change soon to prevent this winter becoming a disaster and joining the list of some of those other winters I have mentioned.  We have also had a number of other winters that do not stand out as being unusually mild, but more so winters that more stand out as never getting their act together in setting up a good cold pattern.

I look at this slightly differently, in that we never expect a cold, snowy dominated winter because it’s certainly not our default.  Trying to find a reason for not having a non-typical winter is next to impossible to do, or perhaps pretty simple depending how you look at it.  
 

The GEM output actually looks ok, nice and settled for most of the UK, a bit mild perhaps but a darn sight better than cold rain. 

[mountain shadow]

I don't think we should looking for any cold in the next ten to fourteen days, but just for the building blocks.

There are indications in the extended of the Atlantic becoming a little more meridonial which may allow for Scandi height rises towards the end of the month and this may tie in with a favorable MJO.

[Methuselah]

Good morning all.

Could we see a new January all-time high being set, next week? Touch-and-go I'd say:

   

And, as MS says above, there's no sign of any cold weather, for the next 10-days at least:

   

And who can rule out a resurgence of unseasonal warmth coming our way, from the South?

Edited January 3, 2020 by General Cluster

[North-Easterly Blast]

17 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I look at this slightly differently, in that we never expect a cold, snowy dominated winter because it’s certainly not our default.  Trying to find a reason for not having a non-typical winter is next to impossible to do, or perhaps pretty simple depending how you look at it.  
 

The GEM output actually looks ok, nice and settled for most of the UK, a bit mild perhaps but a darn sight better than cold rain. 

It depends what your expectation of what is a typical winter for the UK.  I look at it this way; severe cold dominated winters of the likes of early 1940s, 1947, 1962-63 and 1978-79 is what I would call the exception rather than the norm for the UK, and more recently I would put 2009-10 and Dec 2010 in the category as something that is clearly not going to happen on a frequent basis; these are winter spells that just pop up occasionally in the UK when we get lucky and everything in the weather patterns falls into a favourable place for long enough. 

I would say that the typical average winter in the UK develops with spells of mild zonal weather punctuated by some colder polar maritime zonality and a significant cold spell for one to two weeks of it.  Most recently I would call something like 2017-18 as close to a typical winter for the UK, and 2012-13 as the last one with more cold weather in it than is average.

To me in the last 30 odd years winters like 88-89, 89-90, 97-98 esp Feb 1998, Jan / Feb 2002, 06-07, 07-08, 13-14, Dec 2015, Feb 2019 are just the warm equivalents of the cold extremes above, and certainly not the norm for the UK, and the last 30 odd years has had so many stinker periods of winter like these mentioned above.

[Climate Man]

Still improving trends into week two on GFS. Still need a 500 mile shift NNE though!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Compared to the GFS 00Z run, the 06Z is a bit more pronounced with the ridging to the East of the UK for Sunday 12th January.

00Z GFS

06Z GFS

00Z run was a bit more flatter. Probably won’t amount to much and likely just a variation of a theme. 

[IDO]

^^^ I have noticed the GFS 06z has a tendency to go OTT with the shredding of the tPV way out in FI, seen it last year and already obvious this. Not saying it is impossible, but another signal to be wary of on the 06z's. Last three 06z FI charts:

Compare to the last three 0z runs:

[SMU]

Interesting times >> All the non cold spells over the last few weeks the GFS / ECM have been over amplified & the UKMO has been flat > eventually being the winner - all be it with some volatility..

Now we have the UKMO highly amplified with the GFS beginning to move to it - The 06 GEFS mean is a big swing to amplification at 156.

Ignoring all the misery & winter is over posts > thats the best news to date.

Its a pity no UKMO 168 today but im sure there will be a GEFS ENS that looks similar come 144

S

[BlueHedgehog074]

11 minutes ago, IDO said:

^^^ I have noticed the GFS 06z has a tendency to go OTT with the shredding of the tPV way out in FI, seen it last year and already obvious this. Not saying it is impossible, but another signal to be wary of on the 06z's. Last three 06z FI charts:

Compare to the last three 0z runs:

Kinda hope in this case that the 00Z GFS runs are over doing the strength of both the Polar Vortex and the Atlantic, though it does make me wish it was those 00Z runs that are showing the more amplified outlooks lol. I suppose a half-way house is always possible. I think certainly the Scandinavian High option probably isn’t worth ruling out yet. (But clearly at the same time, not worth flooding our hopes up much either)  

[carinthian]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting times >> All the non cold spells over the last few weeks the GFS / ECM have been over amplified & the UKMO has been flat > eventually being the winner - all be it with some volatility..

Now we have the UKMO highly amplified with the GFS beginning to move to it - The 06 GEFS mean is a big swing to amplification at 156.

Ignoring all the misery & winter is over posts > thats the best news to date.

Its a pity no UKMO 168 today but im sure there will be a GEFS ENS that looks similar come 144

S

Our teams charts now showing quite a change by Mid-month. Something similar along the GEM /ECM lines these last few runs. A split and weakening of the  Atlantic 300mb winter jet with falling heights to the SW and rising to the NE . Maybe our long awaited change starting to gather a pace in the models. In the meanwhile, quite a stormy spell coming for the British Isles.

C

[Purga]

Far FI of course but another hint at heights moving north as we saw last night's 12Z ECM. A hint also towards the EC clusters.

BTW, those worried about 'lack of cold to the east' note how quickly things can change over a landmass!

[Methuselah]

A simple comparison, between the GFS 06Z and 00Z, at T+384, gives us an idea of just how many synoptic configurations can be consistent with the airy notion of 'height rises to our ENE/NNE':

06Z:  00Z: 

But they're all plausible (and no doubt all wrong!) as they all follow logically, from the basic laws of physics...

[Coldie24]

Happy new year everyone!

Need to see more on boarding of Scandi high from other models before getting too excited.

Edited January 3, 2020 by prolongedSnowLover

[SMU]

PTB 4 please !

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Another set of runs offering very little prospect of a cold spell to develop for the UK.  When you look at many winters of the last 30 odd years that were poor for cold - the in the late 1990s strong El Ninos or La Ninas could be part of the explanation as to why those winters brought so little, as could winter 2007-08.  High solar activity could be part of the explanation in 88-89 and 89-90, and more recently the same could be true of 2013-14.  A strong El Nino could be the case in 2015-16.  I cannot understand what could have gone wrong with this winter, as the way things are going something has got to change soon to prevent this winter becoming a disaster and joining the list of some of those other winters I have mentioned.  We have also had a number of other winters that do not stand out as being unusually mild, but more so winters that more stand out as never getting their act together in setting up a good cold pattern.

I don't get why you are mentioning  El Niño, solar activity etc and can't understand why this winter has been poor (for cold weather fans)  but yet  totally missing what has just happened recently from which parts of Australia and the countries of East Africa bordering the Indian Ocean suffering because of the Indian Ocean Dipole and how intense it has been. 

I have already suggested this to you.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2020 by Weather-history

[Erdem]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting times >> All the non cold spells over the last few weeks the GFS / ECM have been over amplified & the UKMO has been flat > eventually being the winner - all be it with some volatility..

Now we have the UKMO highly amplified with the GFS beginning to move to it - The 06 GEFS mean is a big swing to amplification at 156.

Ignoring all the misery & winter is over posts > thats the best news to date.

Its a pity no UKMO 168 today but im sure there will be a GEFS ENS that looks similar come 144

S

Im not sure I would call the UKMO highly amplified , the concensus as I see the charts is Euro High and very strong PV