Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Guest]

ECM nowhere near as developmental as UKMO @ 120hrs, possibly edging towards to GEM - Eeeek

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120:

compared with the others:

think ECM is favouring the GEM route...only with the heat low more cut off?

Edited June 20, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Singularity]

Hmm that UKMO 12z is a bit of a shocker isn't it? Not unfamiliar behaviour from that model, though - I've noticed it has a habit of suddenly turbocharging troughs once it decides they're going to develop much. The previous few runs barely made anything of it, with a disorganised feature, so little reason for confidence there.

  

If ECM was to follow, though, I'd be a bit concerned.

As it is, it's slower than both UKMO & GFS with the low passing just south of Greenland on Wednesday and this difference remains appreciable for Thursday, albeit smaller:

  

Just a little more time for high pressure to 'bridge' over the heat low ahead of the Atlantic trough (which incidentally is no longer been whisked away on this day - something ECM looks to have tripped up on unless things revert).

It's an absolute classic situation for the British summer really. There's a good reason for the phrase 'three fine days and a thunderstorm'. By that measure, destabilisation on Friday looks plausible - but that's not a reliable way to forecast! So, we'll see. I think it could well hang on another day.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and possibly bigger ECM ensembles....we will see...ECM rolling.

Rollin', rollin', rollin'...Rollin', rollin', rollin' -- Rawhide! Sometimes it helps to be a old fart!

Good ECM coming up, Mike?

[mb018538]

ECM much better. Less aggressive with the low.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

heat pump buried, this will be a better evolution than GFS or UKMO.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looking good for some heat. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Really fine margins to deliver very different scenarios. ECM looks good to potentially offer 3 days where 32c could be reached and that is by day 6. The 16c isotherm brushing the south on days 4/5/6.

Edited June 20, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Dancerwithwings]

11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

You’d think they’d have fixed the issue with the uppers by now - it’s been happening for years!

Agreed, with temps at them values you wouldn’t need social distancing, we wouldn’t leave the house

 

[Mike Poole]

T168, reload with no lasting intermission?

[Singularity]

 

Nice one, ECM .

For the southeast, this is actually a gain from the preceding ECM 12z (shown below), while it's similar fare otherwise - polar boundary in the same position.

[Mark wheeler]

22 minutes ago, Zak M said:

@Mark wheeler

Your favourite model has gone bonkers... again... 

Yeah it’s gonna come good my old Mate the Navgem

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

T168, reload with no lasting intermission?

Don’t think we’re looking at a reload here, trough is ready to move in eventually 

[Guest]

ECM clearly on the Raz on tonight, looks like its had a few pre-drinks! A much warmer output brings a hot Saturday back into play @T1268hrs. 

[Zak M]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

ECM clearly on the Raz on tonight, looks like its had a few pre-drinks! A much warmer output brings a hot Saturday back into play @T1268hrs. 

I thought it only went up to 240?

Edited June 20, 2020 by Zak M

[Zak M]

I think we could be having another reload of heat here...

Edited June 20, 2020 by Zak M

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

I thought it only went up to 240?

Its clearly not the only one who's had a couple of sherberts 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I think this one might turn out well with that low near Iceland moving at a snails pace. 20c isotherm reaching Paris by now....

Edited June 20, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

If you're here on the south coast you'd 100% bank the ECM tonight. Hot right through to the end of next weekend, with you'd fancy some monsterous storms breaking out!  

Edited June 20, 2020 by Guest

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I think we could be having another reload of heat here...

Strange chart though... Low pressure just of scandy.. Another around Iceland.. The Azores High seems to be on Vacation...  And also heights to the West of Greenland, Its all very slack and not moving to fast at this stage... So a chance of some more decent warmth and some thundery downpours I would have thought.

Edited June 20, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Zak M]

Well then...

More thundery downpours to come? Yes please! 

Edited June 20, 2020 by Zak M

[Singularity]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Don’t think we’re looking at a reload here, trough is ready to move in eventually 

Depends how you define 'reload'. Looks to me that the heat will - perhaps briefly spectacularly, but the fine weather less so - could be a very unstable picture by D10 as that weak low to the west interacts with the plume.

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM clearly on the Raz on tonight, looks like its had a few pre-drinks! A much warmer output brings a hot Saturday back into play @T1268hrs. 

Are you sure it's only the ECM that's been out on the raz, Chris?

[northwestsnow]

EC says no to UKMO..

Surely the heat goes out with a bang on day 9...(not that it will happen exactly like that).

[Mike Poole]

ECM T216:

Some real heat there in the SE, and some spectacular thunderstorms but need to factor in uncertainty, at this range?