Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[wellington boot]

I think there are probably some crossed wires here, due to people living in different locations. From a personal perspective, and positioned in the far southeast, I look at most of these breakdowns and have little concern, since 850s stay warm across the south, bar one or two days, and it still looks likely to be mostly settled down here despite a westerly flow. Others further north are probably seeing a return to raging westerlies and cool cloud, hence differing reactions...

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

To be honest I think the majority of people who took stabs at medium to longer term forecasts towards the end of May went for some form of front loaded summer. Nearly all were wrong. 

To be honest, Chris, I think you're 'jumping the gun' by almost a month?

[ribster]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

 They said June would be a very warm and settled month. I wanted to hear that, but still didn’t believe it. The standard of forecasts and analyses in this thread far exceeds what the Met Office put out to the general public. If you are happy with that then be my guest. As for the BBC,

Don't deny that things have gotten worse since the BBC changed providers, but what was posted was entirely relevant. Anyway, enough said before I get a ticking off.

[Frosty.]

Well I say we (the majority) should just enjoy what’s in front of us and not be concerned about lower res breakdowns..it’s clearly going to warm up considerably next week and I’m sure the Gfs 6z op is underestimating maxima and that 30-32c is probable for the most favoured spots..and as I said earlier, perhaps a few degrees higher and there’s thunderstorm potential too, especially during the breakdown period..for those who love heat, next week is right up your alley!!..out of reactions again, I need a begging bowl perhaps?

Edited June 20, 2020 by JON SNOW

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Things do go downhill next Weekend.. But do we believe anything GFS shows! For instance take a look at the new parallel model and its in a completely different ball park! 

The models are struggling, and I've said it for a long time, what I don't understand is why... Whenever a hot spell or a cold spell is on the way, do people start squabbling over... How long will it last.. How Hot! How Cold! And then it will be... I told you so! Why are we so quick to find a breakdown or how unsettled it will be in 7 or 8 days time! On top of that a annoying phrase... Of if it can go wrong... It will go wrong! 

Let's enjoy next week if very warm/hot is your thing and worry about a potential breakdown closer to the time. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by MATT☀️

[mb018538]

 

ECM ensembles 63/37% split on the flat vs amplified solution by next Sunday. Friday and Saturday look decent on the whole.

Day 10 and beyond a flatter Atlantic regime looks likely to set up, though one cluster keeps a ridge over the UK:

[Zak M]

Looking at the 8-10 day 500mb mean, the ECM keeps the south in for some warm and settled weather while the north could see something a bit more unsettled. The GFS on the other hand clears the settled and warmer weather, which I imagine would lead to a thundery breakdown of sorts. After the breakdown, the GFS opens its doors to an Atlantic trough

Just found out that the last post about the chart was the wrong run, I hope I have posted the right run now!

[Leo97t]

1 hour ago, MATT said:

Things do go downhill next Weekend.. But do we believe anything GFS shows! For instance take a look at the new parallel model and its in a completely different ball park! 

The models are struggling, and I've said it for a long time, what I don't understand is why... Whenever a hot spell or a cold spell is on the way, do people start squabbling over... How long will it last.. How Hot! How Cold! And then it will be... I told you so! Why are we so quick to find a breakdown or how unsettled it will be in 7 or 8 days time! On top of that a annoying phrase... Of if it can go wrong... It will go wrong! 

Let's enjoy next week if very warm/hot is your thing and worry about a potential breakdown closer to the time. 

This is yesterday's run no?

[Zak M]

06z GFS is showing a real threat of big storms on day 6

   

[Frosty.]

Well, I don’t pretend to be an expert but I do know a very good GEFS 6z mean when I see one, and much of next week it’s a peach..BBQ’s / Sun tan lotion at the ready!!!...then following a more changeable less warm period ( north / south split ).... there are signs the Azores high would be building in bringing even more summery weather!!!!

Edited June 20, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Uncle_Barty]

Matt Hugo on Twitter still bullish on AAM staying on the low side (as he has been all summer so far) pointing to atlantic ridge/UK trough setup going into July,.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Matt Hugo on Twitter still bullish on AAM staying on the low side (as he has been all summer so far) pointing to atlantic ridge/UK trough setup going into July,.

Yes , Matt has been pretty consistent in this regard. Models seem to be moving to  a more traditional setup with a north south split developing as the high gives way to the lows waiting in the wings.

Quite how far these systems penetrate still debatable.

[Weather26]

Correct-i think that anything beyond next week is still prone to downgrades.

[mb018538]

39 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Matt Hugo on Twitter still bullish on AAM staying on the low side (as he has been all summer so far) pointing to atlantic ridge/UK trough setup going into July,.

I’ve stopped listening to him to be honest, it’s all he goes on about. It’s like he’s got an agenda or a point to prove about AAM and unsettled weather.

[Djdazzle]

50 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Matt Hugo on Twitter still bullish on AAM staying on the low side (as he has been all summer so far) pointing to atlantic ridge/UK trough setup going into July,.

That’s good news. When he predicts unsettled, it’s a good call that a heatwave is coming. I’ll get the BBQ ready!

He plays the same broken record year after year.

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’ve stopped listening to him to be honest, it’s all he goes on about. It’s like he’s got an agenda or a point to prove about AAM and unsettled weather.

There's a link for sure but it's not as straightforward as that as we know. Matt will know that as well but he rarely posts any other charts at the moment other than the AAM forecasts.

It confuses me tbh because it just seems he's willing on an unsettled summer.

[Zak M]

12z ICON is good.

It's going for a thundery breakdown on Friday night and into next Saturday

   

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ICON is good.

It's going for a thundery breakdown on Friday night and into next Saturday

   

Well after that band of thundery showers Icon now prolongs the nice weather into Saturday for much of England and Wales away from the NW, looks like Sunday could be ok too as the Azores high tries to push up again. Similar to the 500mb mean charts you poster earlier.

 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

That’s good news. When he predicts unsettled, it’s a good call that a heatwave is coming. I’ll get the BBQ ready!

He plays the same broken record year after year.

 

Think you’re being very unfair, has the first half of June been blazing hot and settled? No, some have had more than double their average rainfall for month. No wonder Matt doesn’t post here anymore. I remember back in May some were going on about a summer 2018 sequel. I guess it is not black and white, but it is important tool to monitor, it was not till Tamara who really made importance of +AAM, mainstream on this forum. Progress, many were hostile towards these teleconnections, but increasingly they are being more recognised and discussed by less learned. This is a very good thing, as science is advancing, it’s not based on tea leaves. The spring which transpired really establishes how important it was, in reinforcing and sustaining the exceptional pattern. 

Edited June 20, 2020 by Daniel*

[Paul_1978]

5 hours ago, wellington boot said:

I think there are probably some crossed wires here, due to people living in different locations. From a personal perspective, and positioned in the far southeast, I look at most of these breakdowns and have little concern, since 850s stay warm across the south, bar one or two days, and it still looks likely to be mostly settled down here despite a westerly flow. Others further north are probably seeing a return to raging westerlies and cool cloud, hence differing reactions...

Regardless of where we all are, it looks like a 2-3 day “hot” affair when all is said and done (Weds to Fri). This has been the case for the last few days now, although next Sat is a long way off in weather terms so who knows whether it will remain or get shunted off. 

[Djdazzle]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Think you’re being very unfair, has the first half of June been blazing hot and settled? No, some have had more than double their average rainfall for month. No wonder Matt doesn’t post here anymore. I remember back in May some were going on about a summer 2018 sequel. I guess it is not black and white, but it is important tool to monitor, it was not till Tamara who really made importance of +AAM, mainstream on this forum. Progress, many were hostile towards these teleconnections, but increasingly they are being more recognised and discussed by less learned. This is a very good thing, as science is advancing, it’s not based on tea leaves. The spring which transpired really establishes how important it was, in reinforcing and sustaining the exceptional pattern. 

I get what you say, and nobody is saying this has been an amazing month. I’m not going to get into a debate about him, but his hissy fits are certainly not missed on here.

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Think you’re being very unfair, has the first half of June been blazing hot and settled? No, some have had more than double their average rainfall for month. No wonder Matt doesn’t post here anymore. I remember back in May some were going on about a summer 2018 sequel. I guess it is not black and white, but it is important tool to monitor, it was not till Tamara who really made importance of +AAM, mainstream on this forum. Progress, many were hostile towards these teleconnections, but increasingly they are being more recognised and discussed by less learned. This is a very good thing, as science is advancing, it’s not based on tea leaves. The spring which transpired really establishes how important it was, in reinforcing and sustaining the exceptional pattern. 

What I can't get hold of is who people think was predicting anything other than a cool unsettled first half of June?  Most on here were  predicting exactly what happened, the issue might be when the warm settled weather returned.  I went for mid-month, and it looks like I'm out by best part of a week.  

Beyond next week, for the record, I think we will return to a repeating settled, unsettled or thundery, settled pattern for July with lengthening settled periods, before a gradual deterioration now pushed back to August.  

AAM is still consistently forecast to rise, CFS view:

and while the SSTs have gone a bit flabby with the unsettled spell, we are still warm around the UK and cold Western Atlantic, and these should sharpen up a bit next week too.

[mb018538]

Yikes - ukmo run isn’t good at all tonight! Deep low in play on Friday....doesn’t look like ecm at all.

[Guest]

Really can't see Friday being that great with a chart like this from UKMO - yuck!!

 

 

[sheikhy]

Neither is the gfs at 144 hours!!but tuesday to thursday hot and sunny before storms hit on friday!!