Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok,  A new thread as promised, On we go with the Model Discussion as we head into Summer, Please keep discussion polite and on topic and. Thanks all 

Old thread here..

 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[Zak M]

Not too sure how accurate the CMA is as I have never heard of that model before but this will do at 240!

Edited June 3, 2020 by Zak M

[matt111]

Just now, Zak M said:

Not too sure how accurate the CMA as I have never heard of that model before but this will do at 240!

There's probably a reason why you haven't 

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Not too sure how accurate the CMA is as I have never heard of that model before but this will do at 240!

It is the Chinese model, I haven't seen anyone post it for a while!  Sometimes gets wheeled out in winter if it shows a Greenland block.

Edited June 3, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Not too sure how accurate the CMA is as I have never heard of that model before but this will do at 240!

This is as good as anything at T240. It's likely a ridge is going to try to build over the top of the euro trough. Another trough wants to sneak towards Europe from Greenland. It's a race and a battle of the fittest! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It is Chinese, I haven't seen anyone post it for a while!

The last person to post that model was me Mike, and I've posted the Brazil model and NASA before... Mind you I am a bit weird..  

I think I will wait for the 0z runs in the morning, because its a rather poor ECM mean tonight.. Come to think of it, I wish I would have posted the Brazilian model now.. Enjoy your evenings and keep cool, and stay safe..

Edit... Yes it is rather warm.. Just not so gr8 regarding overall pressure. 

Edited June 3, 2020 by MATT☀️

[northwestsnow]

EC mean sees temps recovering to above average with slack pressure ..

Warm and thundery perhaps..

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, MATT said:

The last person to post that model was me Mike, and I've posted the Brazil model and NASA before... Mind you I am a bit weird..  

I think I will wait for the 0z runs in the morning, because its a rather poor ECM mean tonight.. Come to think of it, I wish I would have posted the Brazilian model now.. Enjoy your evenings and keep cool, and stay safe..

Yes ECM mean is very poor tonight, after a reasonable showing from the op runs.  Wonder how much the missing data is making both the op runs, and the lower resolution ensembles, worse at the moment.  At the end of this, if there is one, it will be interesting to see the verification stats compared to a normal summer.

[Allseasons-Si]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It is Chinese, I haven't seen anyone post it for a while!

I wonder why

anyway i was trying to make a post and it all disappeared before i knew that  Polar Maritime was starting a new thread

i was replying to your post about how weird the ECM looked from 192

it shows the Atlantic high pushing NE and building into Scandinavia forcing the trough/low to undercut from the Atlantic with thundery potential,theirs that word POTENTIAL lol

the mean at day ten shows a similar outcome

there has been so many scenarios up to day ten that i have little confidence until we get this low from 120 sorted because it's just meandering around like a duckling that's lost it's mother

 

 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes ECM mean is very poor tonight, after a reasonable showing from the op runs.  Wonder how much the missing data is making both the op runs, and the lower resolution ensembles, worse at the moment.  At the end of this, if there is one, it will be interesting to see the verification stats compared to a normal summer.

Mike you make a good point regarding this situation... I've noticed since the Covid nightmare and all the restrictions put in place.. Ie... Aircraft data for instance... The models and especially the ops have been throwing out some bizarre scenarios... Its the wildest I've seen it since... Well Winter. Seriously though I think there is going to be some rather strange runs continuing till we get things back to normal, and that could be quite some time. This could be an extraordinary summer for more reasons than one..

[Allseasons-Si]

The latest from cpc shows +ve heights in the Atlantic linking up with the Scandi heights with -ve heights to our south nudging further north to our SW in the extended,it looks mainly dry for the north but increasingly unsettled to our south/SW with the possibility of drawing up some warmer air from the S/SE,it could be a loaded gun this for some action in the way of plumes from the south with thunderstorms.

[Blessed Weather]

48 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes ECM mean is very poor tonight, after a reasonable showing from the op runs.  Wonder how much the missing data is making both the op runs, and the lower resolution ensembles, worse at the moment.  At the end of this, if there is one, it will be interesting to see the verification stats compared to a normal summer.

ECMWF were reporting back in March that the loss of aircraft data arising from the CV19 pandemic would have an adverse impact on starting data for their model initialisation:

Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in aircraft flights and thus of the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres. The observations are used together with many others to help estimate the state of the Earth system at the start of forecasts. At ECMWF, aircraft reports are second only to satellite data in their impact on forecasts. However, recently added satellite wind observations will help to mitigate the drop in the number of aircraft-based observations.

Full article: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

Edit: Also an interesting article written on this topic by the Washington Post: The coronavirus pandemic and loss of aircraft data takes toll on weather forecasting. https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/05/13/aircraft-data-weather-forecasting-coronavirus

Edited June 3, 2020 by Blessed Weather

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, MATT said:

Mike you make a good point regarding this situation... I've noticed since the Covid nightmare and all the restrictions put in place.. Ie... Aircraft data for instance... The models and especially the ops have been throwing out some bizarre scenarios... Its the wildest I've seen it since... Well Winter. Seriously though I think there is going to be some rather strange runs continuing till we get things back to normal, and that could be quite some time. This could be an extraordinary summer for more reasons than one..

ECM stated in a Webinar that lack of aircraft data has only made minor differences to modelling and have actually filled the gaps with other observations so their medium term forecasting shouldn’t have changed much. 

[Mike Poole]

 

4 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

ECMWF were reporting back in March that the loss of aircraft data arising from the CV19 pandemic would have an adverse impact on starting data for their model initialisation:

Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in aircraft flights and thus of the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres. The observations are used together with many others to help estimate the state of the Earth system at the start of forecasts. At ECMWF, aircraft reports are second only to satellite data in their impact on forecasts. However, recently added satellite wind observations will help to mitigate the drop in the number of aircraft-based observations.

Full article: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

 

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

ECM stated in a Webinar that lack of aircraft data has only made minor differences to modelling and have actually filled the gaps with other observations so their medium term forecasting shouldn’t have changed much. 

Thanks both, but don't I just wish we could go back to a world where we were just having this discussion on Christmas Day!

[damianslaw]

Mmm all rather uncertain how things may eventually develop through next week, models seemingly want to park a trough over the UK for some time, heights to the NE and further out to our SW, trough squeezed through the middle.

No obvious sign of an appreciable warm up anytime soon, indeed below average temps in the main.

 

[mb018538]

ECM mean at day 10 looks disappointing - maybe the ops were too generous. See what the morning holds!

[bluearmy]

56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean sees temps recovering to above average with slack pressure ..

Warm and thundery perhaps..

Feasible 

[Guest]

26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

 

Thanks both, but don't I just wish we could go back to a world where we were just having this discussion on Christmas Day!

Cook a turkey on Saturday and the weather will be just like it normally is on xmas day

[Gael_Force]

30 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

ECMWF were reporting back in March that the loss of aircraft data arising from the CV19 pandemic would have an adverse impact on starting data for their model initialisation:

Drop in aircraft observations could have impact on weather forecasts

One aspect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a reduction in aircraft flights and thus of the aircraft-based observations available to weather prediction centres. The observations are used together with many others to help estimate the state of the Earth system at the start of forecasts. At ECMWF, aircraft reports are second only to satellite data in their impact on forecasts. However, recently added satellite wind observations will help to mitigate the drop in the number of aircraft-based observations.

Full article: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2020/drop-aircraft-observations-could-have-impact-weather-forecasts

Edit: Also an interesting article written on this topic by the Washington Post: The coronavirus pandemic and loss of aircraft data takes toll on weather forecasting. https://www.boston.com/news/coronavirus/2020/05/13/aircraft-data-weather-forecasting-coronavirus

Missing data or not .... GFS and ECM seeing remarkably similar, unpalatable solutions, for longer term.

EC 240    GFS 300   

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Alderc said:

Cook a turkey on Saturday and the weather will be just like it normally is on xmas day

Yes - mild and boring!

[Mike Poole]

Well it seems in this weird world we now 'live' in, the models are just taking the proverbial.  Now, after a reasonably consistent 12z suite, we have this from GFS on the zoom run, T192:

I literally cannot remember ever seeing a 1040+ anticyclone on any model in summer!  And the run is rubbish for our weather too, I should add...

Edited June 3, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

This may be the worst it gets. You couldn’t get a more foul summer chart if you drew it yourself!

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it seems in this weird world we now 'live' in, the models are just taking the proverbial.  Now, after a reasonably consistent 12z suite, we have this from GFS on the zoom run, T192:

I literally cannot remember ever seeing a 1040+ anticyclone on any model in summer!  And the run is rubbish for our weather too!

Classic example of N Atlantic HP-UK trough-Russian HP combo. Though the strength of that HP shown is quite remarkable.

[Leo97t]

I've never seen such bad runs for summer - I find it almost alarming how calm people seem to be about it they are utterly depressing. If the GFS 18z came off 100mm and 15 hours of sun to mid month likely with a ave max of 16 ? The Greenland northern Russian high combo defo the pattern of death for summer. 

Fortunately I don't think this is the most likely scenario as I think the models are underplaying the build in fo the Azores initially so lets pray for some upgrades tomorrow

[Singularity]

The energy associated with tropical cyclone Cristobal is going to be messing with the modelling for a while, as it looks like quite a bit of it will make its way across the eastern US early or mid-next week.

This, on top of the adjustments being made to correct for overdone at atmospheric response to dropping AAM - which have so far led to a less unstable look to Mon-Wed.

I’ve noticed CFSv2 delaying the recovery of AAM toward the final week of June in the past couple of days. With that, the likelihood of further  lows hanging about near or over the UK increases. I’m not sure of the legitimacy of this change - much depends on how tropical wave propagation through the Indian Ocean takes place, which hasn’t been well modelled in the past few cycles. A difficult period to anticipate!