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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Good to see the Navgem is being consistent even if it is consistently wrong with it uppers .

AD9A6336-5191-49FE-9522-E113D35605F1.png

4C5D60D6-3B33-4D7B-8D93-67DF8F05B562.png
 

Can I ask a question and yes I know it’s hypothetical as the uppers are wrong , but what’s the likely top temperature if these  charts really did come off ?  

It would be the ice bucket challenge every hour..,, surely 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

Very nice ICON 12Z to start the 12 Z runs ...

HP firmly in charge at 144..and still in charge at 168...

ICOOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.6dd36784ccb87ae6a9bd9b9314eb18a9.png

Edited by northwestsnow
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

Come on 12z's lets finish the working week on a high (quite literally) 

ICON ✅ Its  cracking run a wouldn't be breaking down anytime during the following weekend.

Edited by Guest
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Day 5/6 UKMO

image.thumb.gif.db84b2447a77e65d11987c7f5dd41125.gifimage.thumb.gif.e94dad9bf646d1f773117d8eedee728a.gif   
 

looks like we will get the cut off low and the Azores hopping over the top. Hot on both Wednesday and Thursday. Potential for thunderstorms on Thursday.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

UKMO looking good, let's make this a freaky Friday..

The finer details yet to be ironed out. 

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

tumblr_m6wxwx5RV11qmtjx8o1_500.gif

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

FDFE0F66-681D-4841-BB3F-D936F3CED493.thumb.png.0ac0a969ae9bcd32f1e7bee1397ad566.png

30c Wednesday in the SE on the GFS. Dust down the BBQ folks.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

Yet again... No Greenland Heights to be seen... A summer with no Heights can only mean one thing... They will be there with a vengeance come Winter... That's the hope and what i pray for anyway.. Other than that.. It looks pretty Hot.. Hot... Hot next week. 

gfs-0-144.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

GFS 12Z at T+129...Let the party begin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:clapping::clapping::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
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Posted

Now THAT looks tasty...

108 + 156 at NH view

gfsnh-0-108.thumb.png.23f1c2eae7fec7aa6d24529cffcd47f0.png   gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.1e196e42359ee2de037be61abbed2227.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted

Late June to late July i have always considered 'prime time' ...

Would be a struggle to beat some of the outputs this evening...

GFSOPEU12_141_1.thumb.png.b5e7c53d71bd73886e3b782ece768c53.png

8)

 

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h2005__uk__ Enthusiast

h2005__uk__

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted
7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

FDFE0F66-681D-4841-BB3F-D936F3CED493.thumb.png.0ac0a969ae9bcd32f1e7bee1397ad566.png

30c Wednesday in the SE on the GFS. Dust down the BBQ folks.

Why's it showing only 24-26C as far west as Cambridge when London's touching 30C? I know London's often hottest but usually you'd see at least high 20s across the eastern counties when London's that warm.

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Why's it showing only 24-26C as far west as Cambridge when London's touching 30C? I know London's often hottest but usually you'd see at least high 20s across the eastern counties when London's that warm.

GFS temps - a law onto themselves!

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Why's it showing only 24-26C as far west as Cambridge when London's touching 30C? I know London's often hottest but usually you'd see at least high 20s across the eastern counties when London's that warm.

They aren’t really a good guide. Wouldn’t take them as gospel at all. They are often 2-4c out. Like you say it’s unlikely to be 4-6c cooler here in Cambridge than London in that setup. Would likely be within a degree or two tops.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I'm liking that thundery low! Come to Daddy!:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Bet it ends up right over @Mr Frost's house... somehow?:oldlaugh:

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

FI, but 2nd GFS run now for thunderstorm fans for Sunday 28th, typical chart as this setup tends to favour eastern areas, my area never does that well in plume setups, much better Sat to Wed just gone

ukprec.png

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted

Heat looks very widespread next week on GFS. Even parts of highlands Scotland could be hitting the high 20s. Nights also look very warm and muggy..21C by 6.00am next friday morning   spacer.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

ukmaxtemp.png

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

Just looking at the 06z GFS ensembles and p1 is a very hot perturbation...

1_252_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.6993bae333cc8b39b013cd97d1ae9d27.png   gens-1-1-252.thumb.png.be6306e5e6b2315d6de3e14b9552b357.png   1329045967_gens-1-0-252(1).thumb.png.62bc8e7f6040e3b80fa01b0fbc1b9353.png

Speaking of the GFS, the 12z run shows a brief unsettled spell, but after that, the AH (Azores High) tries to nudge in and makes it futher south but not further north.

Edited by Zak M
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just looking at the 06z GFS ensembles and p1 is a very hot perturbation...

1_252_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.6993bae333cc8b39b013cd97d1ae9d27.png   gens-1-1-252.thumb.png.be6306e5e6b2315d6de3e14b9552b357.png   1329045967_gens-1-0-252(1).thumb.png.62bc8e7f6040e3b80fa01b0fbc1b9353.png

Speaking of the GFS, the 12z run shows a brief unsettled spell, but after that, the AH (Azores High) tries to nudge in and makes it futher south but not further north.

Shame it's not day 1 of Wimbledon, sun cream/ice creams at the ready to watch Djokovic

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

I think the question now is how long does the heat last? Wednesday and Thursday look in the bag, Friday too looks a good bet for some....after this? Who’d like to say!

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

GEM at day 7 still going for hot and thundery conditions...

Isn't that the 3rd/4th time in a row it has shown uppers of 20c?

gem-0-174.thumb.png.f3f678befef483535a750096863b9fba.png   gem-1-174.thumb.png.f055791fa34c54c065aec7652e955768.png

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
Just now, Zak M said:

GEM at day 7 still going for hot and thundery conditions...

Isn't that the 3rd/4th time in a row it has shown uppers of 20c?

gem-0-174.thumb.png.f3f678befef483535a750096863b9fba.png   gem-1-174.thumb.png.f055791fa34c54c065aec7652e955768.png

Would be ridiculous storms if that verifies. 20c uppers with a screaming jet stream nearby!! Texas standards that. 

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted
1 minute ago, Zak M said:

GEM at day 7 still going for hot and thundery conditions...

Isn't that the 3rd/4th time in a row it has shown uppers of 20c?

gem-0-174.thumb.png.f3f678befef483535a750096863b9fba.png   gem-1-174.thumb.png.f055791fa34c54c065aec7652e955768.png

Wow Zak yes it the 3rd time on the trot now .

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
6 minutes ago, Zak M said:

GEM at day 7 still going for hot and thundery conditions...

Isn't that the 3rd/4th time in a row it has shown uppers of 20c?

gem-0-174.thumb.png.f3f678befef483535a750096863b9fba.png   gem-1-174.thumb.png.f055791fa34c54c065aec7652e955768.png

If you had to play guess the uppers just looking at the SLP chart, I doubt you’d say 20c was in play!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Well the GFS Ops run is again on the quick side of things to breakdown the warmth from its ensemble pack. Really need ECM to back the pack up now as its been persistent in sweeping away the heat pretty quickly during late Thursday and Friday.

Nice to see GEM again brining mid 30's into play next Friday although it certainly looks as through its over egging the depth of warmth by brining in 17C uppers as early as 00z on Wednesday. 

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