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Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

What a belter the GFS is - Might not get a better model output all summer, GFS has 30c+ from next Wednesday for 5days - pleasant! Surely will be towards the top of the pack! 

Develops a similar cut off to the ecm this morning which really keeps the heat going through next weekend too. Less favoured option at the moment, but it’s on the table. Could be a few 30c+ days in a row if that set up comes off.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!! h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted
4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!! h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

Aye

A10BE241-B62B-4BC9-BB49-870F61A2E95A.gif

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Omg has Gem been out on the lash with the Navgem ? Thats outrageous.

0E6CAACA-E611-4FB2-93A2-44A3742C2F27.png

CDD26E2D-734F-4168-BCD3-A529DCC28099.png

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted
3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!! h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

Yes Pete,i feel a boom:bomb: coming on what with all the heat and a trigger low to the SW,rinse and repeat of this week....maybe?

loving the UKMO and ICON too that also upgrade the warmth

at 144,GFS,UKMO,and ICON

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.3df12c9d7b4ad857b62f6b2864942d88.png1257341128_UW144-21(1).thumb.gif.b01caa76e2b7951757754614cd7e2e98.gificon-0-144.thumb.png.b2f99da1881b8a9bacca4d5ebf738bee.png

lovely jubbly☀️?️⛈️

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

OMG GEM - Maxes Thurs 31C, Fri 36C, Sat 36C, Sun 36C after a min of 27C in the south east after the cut-off drags in 21C uppers in over the UK!! 

That Escalated.....

Edited by Guest
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Omg has Gem been out on the lash with the Navgem ? Thats outrageous.

0E6CAACA-E611-4FB2-93A2-44A3742C2F27.png

CDD26E2D-734F-4168-BCD3-A529DCC28099.png

I just thought that i would run that for you

500's,850's and 2m temps

anim_pwz9.thumb.gif.beb37757e5212e9d9aa3241abf29a4e7.gifanim_jtf2.thumb.gif.310a852abf2e36869d11d43b81eb14f3.gifanim_apj2.thumb.gif.ec08a476c69ee3d59012228647c5ef93.gif

 

that run would cause a meltdown in here and in the convective thread if that was to come off?️:bomb::bomb::bomb:

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Before we all discover that the GFS 12Z op is an outlandish outlier...I just realised that this could be the third summer in succession to exceed 35C?:yahoo:

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

OMG GEM - Maxes Thurs 31C, Fri 36C, Sat 36C, Sun 36C after a min of 27C in the south east after the cut-off drags in 21C uppers in over the UK!! 

That Escalated.....

Seriously?!? That's ridiculous.

Most likely an outlier though unfortunately.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
Just now, Zak M said:

Seriously?!? That's ridiculous.

Most likely an outlier though unfortunately.

Yes more than likely although GEM, GFS and UKMO all appear to be reading from the same script this evening to some extent!

Wasn't it the 18th June last when either ECM or GFS produced the crazy 25C upper outlier...………….

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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted
Just now, Alderc said:

Yes more than likely although GEM, GFS and UKMO all appear to be reading from the same script this evening to some extent!

Wasn't it the 18th June last when either ECM or GFS produced the crazy 25C upper outlier...………….

it was the 17th last year and it didn't turn out too far off in the actual solution... at least synoptically 

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
Just now, Leo97t said:

it was the 17th last year and it didn't turn out too far off in the actual solution... at least synoptically 

I know down in Camborne they actually measured 25C at the 850mb level. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

It's been a bit of a ball ache but these 2 ensembles look potentially the hottest, and tbh there are a mass of very warm ensembles for much of the time. 

But today's winner of the how hot can it get completion goes to GEM.... WOW... over to you ECM. 

gens-19-0-288.png

gens-6-0-228 (1).png

gens-19-0-276.png

gem-1-198.png

Edited by MATT☀️
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
24 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Omg has Gem been out on the lash with the Navgem ? Thats outrageous.

0E6CAACA-E611-4FB2-93A2-44A3742C2F27.png

CDD26E2D-734F-4168-BCD3-A529DCC28099.png

Does the GEM still have issues with overdoing uppers late in the run? Can't remember if it's been resolved. 

Though even if the uppers have been overdone slightly, it's still an incredible run, potentially record breaking. 

I'll be staggered if we get such perfection though, what happened last July just doesn't happen every year. Or is this going to be the new normal!? 

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Met. Rising Star

Met.

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and dry, thunderstorms, mild temps (13-22°C).
  • Location: Sheffield
Posted
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

I know down in Camborne they actually measured 25C at the 850mb level. 

And the surface temp was something like 20°C under a ridiculous inversion or something. Only in the UK...

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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Before we all discover that the GFS 12Z op is an outlandish outlier...I just realised that this could be the third summer in succession to exceed 35C?:yahoo:

spoiler : its not an outlier

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted
6 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

And the surface temp was something like 20°C under a ridiculous inversion or something. Only in the UK...

That was Mr Murphy and the ministry of sod who sent in the North Sea wind. London would've easily achieved 40C from that. 

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

GEM would most likely produce temperatures well into the mid 30's, what's the June record I wonder?

 

 

gem-9-192.png

gem-9-198.png

gem-9-216.png

gem-9-222.png

gem-9-240.png

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Remember 24-48hours ago it didn't look to great tbh,give it the same before getting a woody!!!

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