Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Guest]

Major difference between ECM & GFS even at 72hrs, the later over 10mb deeper with the low out to our west. ECM much closer to UKMO already. 

[Djdazzle]

GEM was a poor run earlier, so it wouldn’t surprise me if ECM was too. It may not be of course.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

GEM was a poor run earlier, so it wouldn’t surprise me if ECM was too. It may not be of course.

They are already different at T96, as yet no secondary low on ECM.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120:

Compare UKMO and GFS same time:

Looks a bit in the middle to me.

[Captain Shortwave]

Encouraged by the UKMO by that is creating a more southerly flow by day 6 with temperatures on the up. Interesting to see it being insistent on forcing a shallow low through the U.K. and the ridge (Something the ECM is not seeing), however it only really means that Monday is a little cooler on the UKMO.

Day 6

 

Cue the commentators curse but this should be a better run, note the wave on the base of the Atlantic trough. That should allow some re-enforcement of that Euro ridge.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Mike Poole]

Decent at T144

The others

:

ECM looks great to me!

[snowray]

Game on!

 

 

[wellington boot]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Major difference between ECM & GFS even at 72hrs, the later over 10mb deeper with the low out to our west. ECM much closer to UKMO already. 

Major difference? Really? I do not see any major difference. Not only do they broadly look very similar, but both evolve very nicely and similarly out to t144. UKMO somewhat different and shows a slightly punchier low swinging by over the weekend, but shows a similar evolution around that.

[mb018538]

ECM is great at 144. The warmer air arrives much quicker than the UKMO run

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Decent at T144

The others

:

ECM looks great to me!

Very fine margins but things are moving back to mild/hot, at the very least for the Midlands and south. Anyway the Atlantic LP hasn't even formed yet so the likelihood of a somewhat shallower feature remains very possible.

[snowray]

 

[wellington boot]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Decent at T144

The others

:

ECM looks great to me!

Exactly, they all basically look very similar right out to t144, which makes a nice change from recently. Moreover they all broadly look great...!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

Major difference? Really? I do not see any major difference. Not only do they broadly look very similar, but both evolve very nicely and similarly out to t144. UKMO somewhat different and shows a slightly punchier low swinging by over the weekend, but shows a similar evolution around that.

While the positioning isn't that different the pressure difference is significant for just three days out over 10mb in short timeframe is sizable! 

[Mike Poole]

T168:

hot for the south here!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

25 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Puzzled at all the doom around here today, and all the talk of the warm up being pushed back. Already looks pretty fine in the south East by this weekend (the South East which is, by the way, home to 25% of the population, while the south Midlands and below contains half the total UK population - so reasonable to respond to that without endless caveats), and frankly the rest of this current week should see plenty of sun and warmth.

GFS 12z looks outstanding throughout. UKMO shows a slightly more pronounced this weekend but otherwise indicates the same general trend and a build of high pressure. ECM 12z so far looking promising. 

 

What's the problem here?

No doom here mate... ECM bringing the heat... Bring me that plume, I need a plume. 

[Guest]

ECM is going to be a hot one!! T168 Looks beautiful with the high pushing back west and a wide swathe of 15C 850's penetrating the south! I think the 192 & 216 frame are going to be furnace like! 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Guest

[Mark wheeler]

My favourite Navgem is not as good as the others tonight but hey Ho . Cherry picked this at 162 Hours .

[snowray]

57 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Major difference between ECM & GFS even at 72hrs, the later over 10mb deeper with the low out to our west. ECM much closer to UKMO already. 

Gfs seems to almost always over egg these Atlantic lows.

Edited June 17, 2020 by snowray

[Djdazzle]

Was a great run until inexplicably, it moves that low through from 192 onwards. Normally a GFS trait, and I'd expect it to be an outlier at the end.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

The hot plume got shifted east at T192, but some kind of reload is already in train for the south at least, but that is well into FI.......really good set of runs tonight I think.  Add to that the JMA T192:

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

The hot plume got shifted east at T192, but some kind of reload is already in train for the south at least, but that is well into FI.......really good set of runs tonight I think.  Add to that the JMA T192:

It got shunted out way too quickly. Pretty sure that the HP would put up more resistance than that. The LP sat in the same place for 3 days, then decided to march through!

Edited June 17, 2020 by Djdazzle

[mb018538]

I like the ECM day 10 tonight. Looks like a much more traditional UK summer chart - low pressure up towards the NW/Iceland, a W/SW flow and the Azores high in play.

[mb018538]

No northern blocking or -AO in the forecast at the moment either. Always a good sign for me.

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

No northern blocking or -AO in the forecast at the moment either. Always a good sign for me.

Except in January!

[northwestsnow]

36 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM is great at 144. The warmer air arrives much quicker than the UKMO run

Yup its a belter..very warm at times next week on EC DET..