Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Ice Day]

Not a bad set of 12z's by any means, albeit those in the south east will be happier than those further north and west.  However, overall I think the route is generally positive, with some warm or even hot weather coming our way in the next 10 days along with ever present chances of thunderstorms.  Classic British summer fayre!  Also, I don't see the Atlantic revving up anytime soon so, as the kids say, 'all good in the hood' 

 

[northwestsnow]

25 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Let's see what the ECM mean shows. 

Its excellent.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No complaints from me regarding tonight's ECM mean.. Looks pretty good out to day 10..

Edited June 16, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Mike Poole]

I'm late to the party today, just catching up, and will make some comments on the 12z ops in a little bit.  Meanwhile ECM mean coming out, this looks very good for the south T168:

T240:

I think we are headed for settled interludes interspersed by less settled and possibly thundery patterns, which suits me fine.  Probably more settled the further SE so not great for everyone, I know.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm late to the party today, just catching up, and will make some comments on the 12z ops in a little bit.  Meanwhile ECM mean coming out, this looks very good for the south T168:

T240:

I think we are headed for settled interludes interspersed by less settled and possibly thundery patterns, which suits me fine.  Probably more settled the further SE so not great for everyone, I know.

Regional variations nearly always apply be it Winter or Summer.

Those in the SE who enjoy summer should be delighted with the EC det and mean, deckchairs and sun loungers at the ready...

After a glorious April and May summer lovers can have little cause for complaint imo.

[mb018538]

 

ECM mean/ensembles look good for a few days tonight, before pressure and 500mb heights start to drop away again as the Atlantic starts to win out. All of this subject to the usual caveats.

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its excellent.

it really is.  Interestingly, the days 7 and 8 mean looks better than the operational!?

 

 

Not much in it, but at least it suggests the Op wasn't a warm outlier!!!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

34 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Just for fun. Cfs daily for 1st of July booooom lol

CFS has been keen on heights rising over the UK for a while now. 

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

CFS has been keen on heights rising over the UK for a while now. 

CFS makes me nervous!

[Mike Poole]

So where are we tonight?  Here's a selection of models at T144:

ECM clearly the best here, which isn't a bad position to be in.  GFS and ECM parallel pretty good too.  My view is that from here, things will only get better, although that isn't clear from the models quite yet - ECM mean looks very promising into days 7 and 8, mind.  

A look at the SSTs, and compare with June 1st:

The unsettled weather over the last fortnight has caused the SSTs to dissipate a bit, it looks a bit more messy, but the warmth east of a line from the Azores to UK is still there.  Just needs something to kick high pressure over the UK or east of it, to restart the positive feedback re SSTs that was happening in May, AAM is still shown to increase soon on CFS, and this on the back of what the current models and ensembles show, should lead to a decent summer taking hold by July, in my view.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

Summer solstice on the way, and the time of year when the northern summer hemispheric base state tends to set in and thus determine how the rest of the summer will likely pan out.

The most common set up is the classic Icelandic Low, Azores High combo taking battle. Low and behold after 3 months of a preety stagnant atlantic, bang on cue it seems to be firing into gear, deep low pressure system being forecasted for the end of the week - not a good sign I have to say as it suggests it has a fair bit of power in it probably caused by steep temp gradients setting up thanks to the SST profile. A weaker affair would be more promising. It is also postively aligned not negatively unlike the last 3 months in the main.

Whilst the models show the Azores high exerting its muscles through next week- further low pressure development knocking on its doors before the month is out. 

In these scenarios we see the regular NW-SE split, NW plagued by cloud and rain at times, SE dry and warm, very warm, first real injection of significant heat before the month is out.

I'm nervous about the atlantic though..

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So where are we tonight?  Here's a selection of models at T144:

ECM clearly the best here, which isn't a bad position to be in.  GFS and ECM parallel pretty good too.  My view is that from here, things will only get better, although that isn't clear from the models quite yet - ECM mean looks very promising into days 7 and 8, mind.  

A look at the SSTs, and compare with June 1st:

The unsettled weather over the last fortnight has caused the SSTs to dissipate a bit, it looks a bit more messy, but the warmth east of a line from the Azores to UK is still there.  Just needs something to kick high pressure over the UK or east of it, AAM is still shown to increase soon on CFS, and this on the back of what the current models and ensembles show, should lead to a decent summer taking hold by July, in my view.

Talking of AAM Matt Hugo has just tweeted about this...

I wish Matt would post here again i miss his valuable input ( i might ask him on twitter).

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Summer solstice on the way, and the time of year when the northern summer hemispheric base state tends to set in and thus determine how the rest of the summer will likely pan out.

The most common set up is the classic Icelandic Low, Azores High combo taking battle. Low and behold after 3 months of a preety stagnant atlantic, bang on cue it seems to be firing into gear, deep low pressure system being forecasted for the end of the week - not a good sign I have to say as it suggests it has a fair bit of power in it probably caused by steep temp gradients setting up thanks to the SST profile. A weaker affair would be more promising. It is also postively aligned not negatively unlike the last 3 months in the main.

Whilst the models show the Azores high exerting its muscles through next week- further low pressure development knocking on its doors before the month is out. 

In these scenarios we see the regular NW-SE split, NW plagued by cloud and rain at times, SE dry and warm, very warm, first real injection of significant heat before the month is out.

I'm nervous about the atlantic though..

 

Well hopefully if we can get the jet stream a bit further north, the Atlantic may not impinge too much. But in this setup, as you mention, the NW is always more at risk of unsettled incursions.

[NorthernRab]

15 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Well hopefully if we can get the jet stream a bit further north, the Atlantic may not impinge too much. But in this setup, as you mention, the NW is always more at risk of unsettled incursions.

Unsettled incursions in the NW of Europe, who'd have thought! 

[northwestsnow]

18z pushing the low further north than 12z so any Atlantic incursion at the weekend  looks very brief...potentially non existent in the SE...

[snowray]

Lovely looking 18z at T144, I'm hoping that the models start to make less and less of the Atlantic LP in the next few runs, and........ bingo!

 

[snowray]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

18z pushing the low further north than 12z so any Atlantic incursion at the weekend  looks very brief...potentially non existent in the SE...

Yes, lets hope its a trend.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Lovely looking 18z at T144, I'm hoping that the models start to make less and less of the Atlantic LP in the next few runs, and........ bingo!

 

Yes, good run this, T156 looking lovely for the south;

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, good run this, T156 looking lovely for the south;

And it get's even better, even parts of Southern Scotland getting in on the act.

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by snowray

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z at T192:

Some run this one....

[Djdazzle]

A true pub run special on the GFS!

[northwestsnow]

Alderc is quiet things must be looking up 

18z turns on the hairdryer with the SE tasting some of that spicy Iberian heat...

Next week at this juncture looking hot hot across the south, infact we are touching 80f as far north as Manchester,fancy that !!

Edited June 16, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Djdazzle]

Some of the 12z ensemble members went for a scenario like this, so it’s not a complete surprise to see the 18z op taking a similar route.

Still expecting this to be a top end run though.

[snowray]

YES! We have the potential for a late June, and almost nationwide heatwave underway, temps starting to soar up particularly in the South....

Will be an important day model watching tomorrow now, is 18z just up to its old tricks?

Sorry for the ramp but it's exciting, in fact almost, but not quite as good a good old winter beasterly watching this develop!

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by snowray

[Mike Poole]

Going to get a bit hot, humid and thundery if this happens, GFS. T240:

Proper heat pump going there...