Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Mike Poole]

Block putting up more resistance than UKMO at T120:

Should be a good run this one...

[Mike Poole]

Moving on to T144, again with UKMO for comparison, but there's no comparison, ECM is miles better:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Come to mama ECM.. me loves you...

Could be pushing 30C in places come day 7-8.

Edited June 15, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Daniel*]

Looks very good for the moment but iffy for west with trough digging further southeast. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192:

Summer!  Albeit best in the southeast, isn't it always!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Looks very good for the moment but iffy for west with trough digging further southeast. 

Could do with that trough a few hundred miles further west.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Could do with that trough a few hundred miles further west.

Nah it's OK, you southeasterners can keep your 30C temperatures 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This is by and large a splendid run.. @CreweCold you appear to not like the warmth and sun.. Your not a vampire are ya mate..

[Ice Day]

Good runs again this evening. ECM is a really warm run throughout, those uppers for a week today are likely to produce a hot one; as Matt says, probably high 20's if not into the 30's C.  Still looking hot at 216 for England and Wales, cooler further north and west (although detail at this point is not worth worrying about).

  

Edited June 15, 2020 by Ice Day

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, MATT said:

This is by and large a splendid run.. @CreweCold you appear to not like the warmth and sun.. Your not a vampire are ya mate..

Crewe makes no secret of the fact that he dislikes heat!

[mb018538]

ECM raw data has 26-27c maxes for the S/SE

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Big up the storm chaser crew.. This one's for you.. Could be some hun dingers with the day 10 chart. 

[Mike Poole]

It is time to get excited about summer folks, forget the lockdown, the models are agreeing on a major warm up in a weeks time, favouring the SE first.  Here's two more, first JMA T192:

And heres FIM8 admittedly 0z run at T240:

All things headed for return of summer, I say return, May was actually spring!

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Nice EC 12Z....

Approaching crunch time with this low - a halfway house between UKMO and EC would still produce a decent result for the majority with the warmth extended ...

 

 

[northwestsnow]

37 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM raw data has 26-27c maxes for the S/SE

Yes a warm det...

Still very fine margins, tomorrow will give a better idea of where we are heading..

[Guest]

ECM turns out alright for a few days towards the end of the run but its a still a close call on whether that low pressure is kept at bay by a strong enough ridge. Won't feel happy for another 36hours knowing that low pressure doesn't just stream roll straight on through. Hopefully by Thursday we can start trying to pin down how warm, for how long and will we get a proper thundery breakdown!

[Methuselah]

35 minutes ago, MATT said:

Big up the storm chaser crew.. This one's for you.. Could be some hun dingers with the day 10 chart. 

German bellringers?

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

ECM turns out alright for a few days towards the end of the run but its a still a close call on whether that low pressure is kept at bay by a strong enough ridge. Won't feel happy for another 36hours knowing that low pressure doesn't just stream roll straight on through. Hopefully by Thursday we can start trying to pin down how warm, for how long and will we get a proper thundery breakdown!

Even if it does steam through, I suspect we would still end up in a good position soon after.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I think the general theme of the models lately is they are flirting with a hot spell come next week. Confidence is growing, Scandi high in the right place, trough slider belt slowly being squeezed away as the Azores ridge over rides the current pattern. It will be a slow process but i have a feeling thats where things are going. 

Edited June 15, 2020 by 38.7°C

[Scorcher]

What a cracking chart from the ECM for Monday- actually not that far off in the grand scheme of things. 30C looks possible for for much of the east of England if this comes off.

[mb018538]

Still on the edge if you ask me at the moment....there’s still a chance low pressure could be stronger or further east than forecast and prevent any ridging. Once it gets to 2-3 days away I’ll be more confident.

[Djdazzle]

ECM mean turns out to be a good one.

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is summertastic !!

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Still on the edge if you ask me at the moment....there’s still a chance low pressure could be stronger or further east than forecast and prevent any ridging. Once it gets to 2-3 days away I’ll be more confident.

Absolutely agree...

 

[Mike Poole]

If this is the mean at 192:

Then we are good to go on summer...

T240:

I guess we'd like to see the trough a few hundred miles west, but it looks good overall this afternoon I think!