Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Man With Beard]

49 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hello summer  

Cracking ECM tonight and it's not the first time it's gone down this route

[Djdazzle]

Pretty good ECM mean.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I'm taking ECM with a pinch of salt. We need at least two/three more runs before I consider displaying any enthusiasm. But knowing what will happen It will probably look so much different tomorrow. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM ensemble mean and spread T144 and T240:

T144: Not worried about the uncertainty in the Atlantic, happy about the certainty over Scandi!

T240 and the picture is a bit different..still positive, but now there is uncertainty over Scandi.   So at T144 the uncertainty was upstream, at T240 it is downstream.

[mb018538]

Spot the ECM op run

That said - the mean touches 1025mb at day 8, which is good anyway.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Spot the ECM op run

That said - the mean touches 1025mb at day 8, which is good anyway.

Surprise surprise on the ECM Ops run being an outlier! Interestingly the GEM Ops run wasn't an outlier. Its ensemble pack got very, very warm post the 240hr mark! GFS or ECM will probably have snow or a hurricane somewhere in their output tomorrow....

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Spot the ECM op run

That said - the mean touches 1025mb at day 8, which is good anyway.

Yes the mean still shows a decent pressure rise- I'm happy with that.

[Captain Shortwave]

So this week focussed mostly on showers, distribution varies from day to day as low pressure meanders around close to the U.K. Some places could see a fair amount of rain whilst others remain dry.

Next weekend appears to be the transition as we see some deeper areas of low pressure moving towards us. At this moment it appears the response will be displace the Azores high towards Spain and France with it having some degree of influence on the weather in the U.K. This offers some good prospects for the south with a decent chance of dry, sunny and very warm conditions developing. More mixed in the north of course.

[bluearmy]

I’ve probably missed this some days (or weeks) back but the ecm parallel is surely a model that should be used in addition to the current issue (as should the gfsp) 

Edited June 14, 2020 by bluearmy

[chapmanslade]

2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I’d say the GFS ensembles are next to useless at the moment as they are flip-flopping from run to run. I’m not surprised to see some of the ops trying to ridge in the Azores high, as this is a plausible outcome.

Exactly the opposite. The support of the ensembles or otherwise is exactly why they are run and give an indication of whether the op and control have any support. There are clearly two ways forward at about a week (+/- Azores ridge) so why is it a surprise that runs are flip flopping about a week out. Until a strong signal is picked up expect more of the same inter run variation from all models. Just remember the latest GFS op run would not have been an outlier yesterday so who is to say which one is correct. 

 

 

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ve probably missed this some days (or weeks) back but the ecm parallel is surely a model that should be used in addition to the current issue (as should the gfsp) 

Yes, we have been watching both of these.  They are available on Meteociel.  GFS parallel 6z looks great:

T192.....

Edited June 14, 2020 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

Gfs 18z?!!high pressure ridges sraight through the uk and pushes the low further northwest in the atlantic!!

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T162:

If only the pubs were open.....for summer....

[Singularity]

Hmm... are we sorted all of a sudden?

Experience prevents such a presumptuous conclusion but it’s notable to see GFS move so much toward ECM with the main trough placement for the weekend.

One that matches well to a historical composite for rising AAM through neutral in June.

Its a bit sooner than I was expecting to see the trough fully northwest rather than near-west of the UK, though. Either the AAM rise has been accelerated or the models are ‘jumping the gun’ a bit having picked up on the signal for the new broad direction of travel.

Incidentally, it’s unfortunate that the EC seasonal has updated prior to the AAM conundrum being clearly resolved. It looks from the July pattern to have taken a low AAM route, which seems to be looking less likely by the day now.

[Mike Poole]

What?  No one posting the 18z T192:

P

i will just leave that there, I think.   Good night everyone!

[mb018538]

The great downgrade begins? UKMO and GEM have low pressure much closer at day 6 this morning, no ridging at all...

[Methuselah]

I guess that Atlantic trough is causing the models yet more headaches... But it could be a lot worse; th GFS 00Z op doesn't start to go gear-shaped until Day 10:

    

    

    

    

    

Not a bad set of GEFS ens, either:

    

    

NH profiles:

    

    

So, depending upon one's preference, the next couple of weeks look like being, 'shocking', 'average', or 'preety good'!

 

[Guest]

GEM & ECM start to build a strong ridge after low pressure from west gets a little close for comfort, certainly a trend for that low to be a couple of hundred miles closer to the UK morning.  GFS builds high pressure in too, UKMO probably the most unsettled @144 with low pressure all but on top of the UK however given recently model shifting who knows what is going to happen.

Edit ECM @ 216 is an absolute belter. Would 100% take that!! 

 

[mb018538]

Thankfully ecm is still a ripsnorter. UKMO a bit of worry, but when the clusters last night were 100% behind a ridge at that timescale then you have a bit more confidence:

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM has a U.K. high for week 2, lots of sunshine and temperatures into the mid to high twenties. Certainly an attractive offer, the UKMO I suspect would go a similar route but the jet stream probably further south so the risk of rain for the north whilst the south ends up in a very warm SW feed. I guess the ECM would be indicative of a potentially prolonged spell of summery weather with the focus on heat building in situ across the U.K. and most of Europe whilst serious heat also builds over Iberia to offer something if the high displaces further east.

GFS looks behind the curve in terms of the mid-range at the moment.

[northwestsnow]

Absolutely no way of knowing how the mid term is going to pan out looking at the 00z runs.

EC is beautiful but that hinges on the low not getting 'in' or trapped near the UK,EC has it a few hundred miles north of where the UKMO model has it at 144 ,thats a pretty small margin of error..

GEM similar to UKMO,but somehow manages to retrieve the situation and the run goes warm and settled towards the end.

GFS,well i'm afraid its like me at primary school, the last one to be picked on the football team, but,fwiw , it brings about a warm settled spell away from the NW..

I like what i am seeing from GFS and EC longer term but i have zero confidence in any of it.

 

[northwestsnow]

EC mean is again really good...

 

Edited June 15, 2020 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is again really good...

 

Sure is @northwestsnow!

Mean will be helped by this though. Crazy outlier again!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Sure is @northwestsnow!

Mean will be helped by this though. Crazy outlier again!

Its  crazy the number of outliers EC has been churning out....

We had a good few of unsettled outliers recently, now its gone to the other end of the spectrum.

The only thing i would suggest is the classic NW/SE split seems distinctly possible, so perhaps a reasonable chance the SE could see quite a protracted warm spell...

[Scorcher]

 

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean is again really good...

 

Yes very good, even the very worst case scenario would be over 1015 mb. I think the last couple of days have proven that we don't need the pressure to be extremely high in order to get decent summer conditions.