Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Guest]

31 minutes ago, MATT said:

That mean would put temperatures into the low to mid 20s..is that not warm? If your expecting to see 30+ on a regular basis it may be better served to view the ensembles for Africa more often. I would say your neck of the woods would be pretty decent. 

Who said anything about 30C? The post is merely pointing out a massive shift in the space of 18hrs in one of the models. Also in the finer details there is plenty to be sorted out with weak frontal activity that could limit sun and depress temps at several points this week so sorry again if I don't display appeasement at the distinctly average mean charts everyone seems to think are fine. Again writing this under 16c and heavily overcast skies when again a few days ago low 20s was odds on.  

[summer blizzard]

In typical fashion the GFS bent to the Euro in the trough solution but the Euro bent to the GFS in the high solution. Amusing.

[Frosty.]

I honestly don’t think the GEFS 6z mean is to bad in the mid / longer term, especially further south by southeast (already mentioned by Matt and General Cluster who I completely agree with!..) and what they say is preety much the norm in summer!..in the meantime, there’s plenty more warm and humid conditions in the short-term with a mixture of sunshine and heavy, slow moving potentially thundery showers but the very nature of showers is hit and miss with some areas doing quite well for fine weather while others get a regular soaking although to me, any rain is very weclome following such a dry May for many!

Edited June 14, 2020 by JON SNOW

[MATTWOLVES 3]

29 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Who said anything about 30C? The post is merely pointing out a massive shift in the space of 18hrs in one of the models. Also in the finer details there is plenty to be sorted out with weak frontal activity that could limit sun and depress temps at several points this week so sorry again if I don't display appeasement at the distinctly average mean charts everyone seems to think are fine. Again writing this under 16c and heavily overcast skies when again a few days ago low 20s was odds on.  

Your looking at the worse case scenario though.. Yes if it remains cloudy with lots of showers, temps are suppressed.. In decent sunny spells temps climb to low to mid 20s. Just as was the case here yesterday.. 25c was reached. My main reference to your post was the fact you said all the warm members have gone from the ensembles.. 

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, MATT said:

 My main reference to your post was the fact you said all the warm members have gone

Agreed, I’m certainly a very warm affable member..anyhoo, the fact is it’s not as bad as some are painting it and not as good as others..me..surely not! ..it’s somewhere in the middle but an eventual north / south or northwest / southeast split is typical in a u k summer.,finally, spare a thought for some NE coastal areas which are looking cooler and duller compared to the majority of the u k during the week ahead..it’s not funny HAAR HAAR for those areas!

Edited June 14, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mb018538]

These obviously aren’t to be taken as guaranteed to happen, but most don’t look good if you like a warm and settled summer in the UK. Just for info though!

[Leo97t]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

These obviously aren’t to be taken as guaranteed to happen, but most don’t look good if you like a warm and settled summer in the UK. Just for info though!

There's literally every single possible synoptic pattern I would't give them a second of your time

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Quite a difference between the ECM ensembles and the GFS 6z ens.. The ECM op is a fair bit higher than the GFS.. And the mean from the former is also better than the latter model. 

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

Who said anything about 30C? The post is merely pointing out a massive shift in the space of 18hrs in one of the models. Also in the finer details there is plenty to be sorted out with weak frontal activity that could limit sun and depress temps at several points this week so sorry again if I don't display appeasement at the distinctly average mean charts everyone seems to think are fine. Again writing this under 16c and heavily overcast skies when again a few days ago low 20s was odds on.  

I believe you were one of those banging on about supposedly dire conditions coming this weekend, just a few days ago.

It has been glorious here and just shows that you don't need spectacular synoptics for fine conditions out here.

Everyone around Manchester is sitting in their gardens this afternoon in 23C sunshine.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I believe you were one of those banging on about supposedly dire conditions coming this weekend, just a few days ago.

It has been glorious here and just shows that you don't need spectacular synoptics for fine conditions out here.

Everyone around Manchester is sitting in their gardens this afternoon in 23C sunshine.

Lucky you, maxed at 19C yesterday in a couple of hours of sun yesterday, rained/showered most of the after and 16C, again temps up to 19C but been cloudy and 15/16C most of the days. Its been a poor weekend down here bar a few hours.

[Relativistic]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lucky you, maxed at 19C yesterday in a couple of hours of sun yesterday, rained/showered most of the after and 16C, again temps up to 19C but been cloudy and 15/16C most of the days. Its been a poor weekend down here bar a few hours.

Try 12C and thick fog all day yesterday!

[Tamara]

6 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Personally, i wouldnt get suckered in by the ECM, just because its showing what many of us want to see.

I cant see any support here for the Azores ridging the ECM suggests, and 9/10 the NOAA charts trump the ops. Troughing, albeit shallow ? looks like being the dominant feature for us, as the Scandinavian block refuses to budge.Light/moderate upper flow off the Atlantic would , i believe, bring pretty average conditions, changable, NW/SE divide, but not too wet with plenty of decent summery weather between weak systems?

 

 

It is sensible, at any season and an any time, not to try to fit any weather preference to numerical model output interpretation of the diagnostics that drive them. The NOAA charts are a best guide to numerical weather modelling guidance though it has to be remembered that these are also snapshots in time of the overall numerical model interpretation of global diagnostic wind-flow inertia. On that basis they will also evolve and are subject to change as that interpretation of tropical>extra tropical wind-flow inertia becomes consolidated in agreement in the nearer term.

 

4 hours ago, Alderc said:

Seems like another small step backwards on the GFS 06Z run, showers now looking prevalent all week, some weak frontal activity floating around the south at time keeping it cool, temps down on previous runs along with uppers and an increasingly unsettled picture beyond day 8/9 as the flow again turns north westerly.

 

3 hours ago, Alderc said:

what warm spell, completely gone from the ensembles now. 

4 hours ago, Leo97t said:

I think the GFS Is overplaying the low at day 7. I expect the ECM to be closer on this one

 

4 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

I think it’s been more of a case of model convergence for the week ahead, rather than one jumping fully towards another.

I think the fourth quote is an accurate assessment well pitched between the opposing boundaries of operational output orientated reactions in the quotes that precede it

The continued interventions from the NW of trough features are indeed converging, taking into account all NWP, as to how progress of the Azores ridge is suggested to ebb and flow. This has been the focal driving factor, since the broad-scale pattern change away from the dominance of anticyclones at the start of the month.

 Often referred to quite appropriately as an "envelope" by some on here, it seems to me that this envelope of possibilities is more blended, and less black vs white than some of the omnipresent views on this thread. 

There are continued uncertainties and some contradictory implications, at present ,with regards to tropical forcing as @Singularityhas recently emphasised on here.

The outlook remains sensitive to events upstream in the Pacific and how much amplification, or not, takes place there. For downstream summer hopes - the less amplification upstream in the Pacific, the better.

It is complex, but there seems to be some link here between how the tropics and extra tropics are acting in something of an disconnect with the notion that off-equator forcing c/o anomalous warmth and moisture across the tropics as a whole (aside from the cooling of the ENSO regions) is mitigating what would be the expected pattern of a growing La Nina and e/QBO transition signal.. The off Equator forcing is creating a stronger downstream sub tropical ridge response which off-sets the opposing attempt to raise pressure across the extra tropics in the Pacific and create a deeper downstream trough response (than the weak height transferences that we have been seeing) due to La Nina-esque falling angular momentum. In short, the tendency for a downstream trough led by an amplified Pacific wavelength is being watered down (to a degree) by the sub tropical ridging (Azores High) being influenced through strengthened tropical wave propagation.  Such a development makes the Azores High more influential across NW Europe than otherwise would be the case.

It is a case of seeing whether this gains traction or is just a temporary disconnect.

But it does rather echo, so far at least, what happened in summer 2016 - which turned out (relatively) better than was originally suggested, more especially the latter part of the summer (and into some glorious September weather as well). That year also featured a very enigmatic QBO transition to easterly, which was ultimately curtailed. There is uncertainty this time around, but there seems to be a link allied to keeping the polar cell more stable due to dampening of any stratospheric disturbances caused by absence (so far) of pronounced e/QBO downwelling. Such a scenario would also lead assistance to deepening of La Nina forcing and greater upstream amplification

So irrespective of the mixed moods on this thread, an upper trough over Greenland in summer is not necessarily a bad thing to have, and even with the trough influence ebbing and flowing from the NW there always remains a much better chance of classic summer weather quickly appearing whilst this remains the case. It would be more dubious if there were signs of that wholesale drop of pressure at mid latitudes and pressure rising across the pole and extending a block into the N Atlantic. This is still not the case, and while things can and sometimes do change, I am personally encouraged by the lack of appearance of this so far. 

Musing here to an extent, but for what it is worth, should the tropical signal align further c/o that anomalous warmth in the tropics and the polar cell remain stable - irrespective of what extended ensembles and associated cluster data suggests currently as a snapshot in time (yes, that phrase again) -  look for that trough to the NW to start align itself in such a way to allow some hot and potentially thundery conditions from the south later this month

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by Tamara

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lucky you, maxed at 19C yesterday in a couple of hours of sun yesterday, rained/showered most of the after and 16C, again temps up to 19C but been cloudy and 15/16C most of the days. Its been a poor weekend down here bar a few hours.

Very much luck of the draw. After a poor week here, the weekend has been fab. 25c both days with sunshine all weekend. All this despite low pressure dominating. It doesn’t always equate to rain and cloud thankfully!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I believe you were one of those banging on about supposedly dire conditions coming this weekend, just a few days ago.

It has been glorious here and just shows that you don't need spectacular synoptics for fine conditions out here.

Everyone around Manchester is sitting in their gardens this afternoon in 23C sunshine.

Perfect scorcher, its been the same here all weekend also, not one shower.. Low pressure does not guarantee a washout scenario just like High Pressure does not guarantee cloudless skies and wall to wall sunshine.. I can bare this set up, sunshine and showers the showers hit and miss.. The sun being very warm when out also. I would say coupled with the marvellous spring, up until now as been pretty decent. We could quite easily have found ourselves in a situation akin to last June considering all things. I think the next 7-10 day's look pretty respectable on the whole.. Let's see what UKMO ECM and GEM have to say shortly.. Enjoy your evenings folks. 

[Mike Poole]

ICON trends unsettled to start with but ends up here T180:

very good for the SE, let's see if we can improve on this as the runs come out.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm hopeful we can keep Low Pressure to the NW come day 6, which I would assume would keep many areas to the SE reasonably warm and fine. 

That Low Pressure looks like its come to a stand still.. Its pretty much being boxed in.. So i would imagine where you become unsettled it could be with you for a while, the further South and East could be holding on to some decent conditions for a while. 

Some cracking conditions away from the NW come day 8.

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2020 by MATT☀️

[mb018538]

Looks as if that low is going to get a bit too close to prevent the sort of nice charts we were treated to last night. Looks more like a typical NW/SE pattern to me.

GFS treads a similar path through the weekend:

[Mike Poole]

Yes, it looks a bit unsettled mid term, and UKMO has the low close to us T144.   Longer term it looks much better, as you can see here from GFS to T192:

Edited June 14, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Well, if we are going to see something properly plumey, a low-pressure system out in the Atlantic is a good place to start...?

    

Anywho, low to mid twenties would be okay...

[Djdazzle]

Longer term, we have a more standard pattern with LP to our NW and the Azores HP starting to look more influential.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Well, if we are going to see something properly plumey, a low-pressure system out in the Atlantic is a good place to start...?

    

Anywho, low to mid twenties would be okay...

I new I had forgotten something Pete.. You're correct in that prognosis could we get in a favourable position to import more warmth.. I would say a good chance.. That Low Pressure is not in any hurry to go far.. The West to East mobility as gone out of the window for a long time now. 

[mb018538]

GFS turns into a scorcher as the low just gets stuck and acts as a heat fan instead, with hot air from the south drawn up. Another one of the myriad of solutions we’ve been treated to!

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, MATT said:

I new I had forgotten something Pete.. You're correct in that prognosis could we get in a favourable position to import more warmth.. I would say a good chance.. That Low Pressure is not in any hurry to go far.. The West to East mobility as gone out of the window for a long time now. 

No northern blocking there either.

[Leo97t]

GEM is a stunner - lots of different options rn but none look too bad especially the further SE you are

[Mike Poole]

GEM T162:

Wowsers!  And with WAA from that low in the Atlantic (which incidentally looks a bit weird) this should go on to a heatwave...