Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Methuselah]

Well, if the GFS 12Z is right (fingers crossed) by next Sunday, June's CET should be irreversibly in the 'above average' category...Another one bites the dust!

    

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If gem is consistent with its 00z run then Ecm will look v isolated .......

would be unusual for ecm to be badly wrong days 5/6 but this could be one of those occurrences.  The 06z eps were a small drift towards the gfs/Ukmo 

GEM T96:

The orange bits NW of Scotland are closer than UKMO:

Edited June 13, 2020 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

Gfs 12z keeps on giving!!?cmon ecm stop being annoying and stubborn and give in!!

[Djdazzle]

Now that UKMO hasn’t backed down, it seems likely that ECM will.

[Mike Poole]

GEM fully onboard T144:

ECM needs to have a good think about what it shows us at 7pm, because, for me this uncertainty is now resolved, and ECM is on the wrong side of it.  

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Now that UKMO hasn’t backed down, it seems likely that ECM will.

Hmmmmm, i wouldn't bank on it!!

Beautiful 12z runs for summer lovers though..

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM fully onboard T144:

ECM needs to have a good think about what it shows us at 7pm, because, for me this uncertainty is now resolved, and ECM is on the wrong side of it.  

I love the way we talk about the models, as if they’re human!

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmm, i wouldn't bank on it!!

Beautiful 12z runs for summer lovers though..

It pretty much has to NWS, the particular uncertainty is now at T96, this can't go on any longer.

[mb018538]

Hmm. So we have GFS, UKMO and GEM all looking similar. Now can ECM be a good model and join the gang later?  

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I love the way we talk about the models, as if they’re human!

LOL!  Well we can't relate to humans as if they are humans any more, so maybe this is just part of the new normal, re support bubbles, is it legal for me to get it away with the GEM now?

Edited June 13, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep think ECM has this wrong!

Someone mentioned that Marco Petagna said this settled spell was likely to be temporary- that looks the case at present. GFS continuously unsettled towards says 9&10 beyond the more settled spell.

Theme of summer 2020? Settled-unsettled-settled?

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It pretty much has to NWS, the particular uncertainty is now at T96, this can't go on any longer.

Fingers crossed Mike

I'm a born pessimist , my mum always  said she should  have called me (doubting) Thomas !!

UKMO looks really good at 144 with the Azores high flexing its muscle...

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep think ECM has this wrong!

Someone mentioned that Marco Petagna said this settled spell was likely to be temporary- that looks the case at present. GFS continuously unsettled towards says 9&10 beyond the more settled spell.

 

That would be me 

GFS looks beautiful out to day 10 and ukmo looks good at 144 so yes, i think you might be correct, EC probably bringing in the Atlantic prematurely.

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep think ECM has this wrong!

Someone mentioned that Marco Petagna said this settled spell was likely to be temporary- that looks the case at present. GFS continuously unsettled towards says 9&10 beyond the more settled spell.

Theme of summer 2020? Settled-unsettled-settled?

 

I think the Petagna comment may have been based on the ECM 0z ensemble suite, about the current uncertainty rather than a later one? The Met Office for all their virtues do tend to place an awful lot of confidence in models, sometimes, as we know, and  very occasionally when radar watching or even looking out of the window might do better?  

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That would be me 

GFS looks beautiful out to day 10 and ukmo looks good at 144 so yes, i think you might be correct, EC probably bringing in the Atlantic prematurely.

GFS is lovely, low to mid twenties right through to next weekend. It shows how you can get lucky with an unfavourable pressure pattern at times. The ECM option doesn’t bear thinking about! Fine lines.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think the Petagna comment may have been based on the ECM 0z ensemble suite, about the current uncertainty rather than a later one? The Met Office for all their virtues do tend to place an awful lot of confidence in models, sometimes, as we know, and  very occasionally when radar watching or even looking out of the window might do better?  

Mike, one of there spokesman was tweeting last week about a build of pressure this week, because UKMO was showing it.. Personally I think it would be better if they spent more time in the office and less time tweeting... To much assume very often makes an ASS out of U and ME.

[Mike Poole]

And the GEM ends like this, great run:

The thing is I have been expecting to see runs like this emerge post mid-month, maybe it is a bit early now, but because of the change in AAM, we've reached the low point and it is bouncing back, it would seem.  What's not clear is to what extent there is a lag, but for me the futures looking orange!  Today's AAM plot:

[Methuselah]

And the GFS ends an otherwise stonking run, by finally putting an end to summer, on June 29:

    

Edited June 13, 2020 by General Cluster

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Has to be said but this model watching is very much like a grand prix. One model will always be leading the race - to the point its way ahead of others,  and right now it seems the other cars have caught up. ECM very much behind right now in his car, but will he catch up with UKMO and GFS in their cars?  Or will they lose speed and just fall behind again with ECM in the lead? The aim of this race is to reach the final pole, a hot and dry pole!  

[Djdazzle]

21 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Has to be said but this model watching is very much like a grand prix. One model will always be leading the race - to the point its way ahead of others,  and right now it seems the other cars have caught up. ECM very much behind right now in his car, but will he catch up with UKMO and GFS in their cars?  Or will they lose speed and just fall behind again with ECM in the lead? The aim of this race is to reach the final pole, a hot and dry pole!  

ECM into the pits.

It’s 00z run WAS the pits!

[Methuselah]

I'd convinced myself that the GFS 12Z op was a warm outlier, it's that good...But it is, as it happens, well-supported by the GEFS ens, the only outlying is with the low pressure at run's end:

    

    

And, once again, the NH profiles look good:

    

    

But... will the ECM come to the party?

[Mike Poole]

The big one, ECM T96:

Compare with UKMO at same time:

I don't think we can call this yet, it still looks poor in comparison with all the other models at just day 4.

[mb018538]

ECM looks like going the way of the 00z again......aaaggghhhhhh

Edited June 13, 2020 by mb018538

[mb018538]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM looks like going the way of the 00z again......aaaggghhhhhh

Sadly it has. Nothing like as good as gfs or ukmo on the Friday 144 chart

[Mike Poole]

T144:

And there we go, failure to link up those ridges while the chance was there leads to this.   

Anyone bets on which way this will go?  I think 70/30 in favour of the other models at the moment, what do you guys think?