Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean and spread T96, squeaky bum time....

Think it is going for the trough solution! 

Yeh but the ensembles will follow the op anyway?!!!if the 18z doesnt move towards ecm then i really do think ecm could have lost the plot!!!

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T240:

I don't agree with that at day 10,  my expectation is more as per GEM  run, here:

It is still going to be a while before we see the true way through this fog in weather terms, but in comparison, COVID-19 restrictions and the damage they are doing to every part of our lives is a much greater issue,  predicting the weather will literally be a walk in the park, which most of us  can still do (walk in the park, I mean not predict the weather!).

Edited June 13, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

GFS parallel 12z out to T96, it says no to the ECM, the ECM really is out on its own tonight:

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by Mike Poole

[sheikhy]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS parallel 12z out to T96, no to the ECM,it really is out on its own tonight:

 

I just cant see the ecm being correct here!!i mean if any model can pull it out the bag like this it would defo be the ecm but i find it really hard to see it being correct against all other models!!theres a reason why i believe the ecm is the king of all models because its so much more consistant in general and its gone against every other model before and ended up being correct!!lets see......

[mb018538]

Hardly surprising on the ecm op!

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hardly surprising on the ecm op!

What bout in terms of pressure mate?

[sheikhy]

Icon looks like gfs at 72 hours!!.....

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

What bout in terms of pressure mate?

Bit of an outlier again sadly. Maybe the morning will help!

[sheikhy]

Icon 18z once again goes against the ecm solidly!!

[Mike Poole]

18z time, although all times are the same and meaningless to me in lockdown, let's put that aside and view the models, first up ICON here 18z T120 compared with 12z T126:

Well, it certainly isn't going down the ECM route....

[sheikhy]

Cant really see this gfs 18z following the ecm even at an early 72 hours in.....

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Cant really see this gfs 18z following the ecm even at an early 72 hours in.....

I agree, here at T150, complete shift to Atlantic trough, Scandi high,  

[Singularity]

Catching up after an evening doing other things.

Staring intently at the ECM 12z charts versus other models, it sure does look to have made a move toward them at +96 with more of a ridge W and NW of the UK.

Its subtle, but enough to divert the Atlantic low further north and so steer the following big westerly push ENE instead of E or ESE for +168. This adjustment then feeds back on itself to produce the startling difference of outcome for the final few days of the run.
 

Yet the polar jet still heads nowhere near as far north as the other models are going with. That seems to be down to the low by the UK early in the week not being fully cut-off and sent to reinforce a broad ‘gyre’ of sorts over mainland Europe which in turn supports a ridge to its north.

Fascinating to see these differences at such short range, especially with almost identical solutions at +72 hours. This could be down to minute model bias... be it in the wrong direction or right, on this occasion! Im wary because ECM was the first model to insist, by itself for a day or two, that we’d have a low loitering across the UK this weekend instead of moving away to the southwest... and look what happened! 

[sheikhy]

Icon moves towards ecm at 90 hours!!big runs coming up......

[Methuselah]

GFS 00Z is moving towards the weather; Atlantic depression time? Or a touch of the collywobbles?

    

    

    

   

    

And, as the GEFS ens show, the GFS 00Z op is on the cold side of the pack; it's also out on its own with the LP, in FI:

    

    

The NH profiles are nae too bad:

    

    

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 0z operational, the week ahead is warm and humid with max temps into the low / mid 20’s c range and a mixture of sunshine and showers, many of them heavy with a risk of hail & thunder although the shower risk ebbs and flows and perhaps more concentrated further west, week 2 looks more unsettled and relatively cooler but looking at the GEFS 0z longer term, the pattern indicates quite a slack pressure field with ongoing potential for tapping into a very warm / humid continental airmass but also some less unsettled options with more ridging / high pressure..in a nutshell, the longer term mean doesn’t look as bad as the op, especially further s / se and even the op at the very end extends an olive branch with hints that the Azores high could be about to build in.

Edited June 14, 2020 by JON SNOW

[northwestsnow]

EC looking good...

Our Winter foe the Azores high saving the day on EC 00z...

[mb018538]

Unsurprisingly the 00z runs aren’t as good as last nights, but not too bad. The nice high pressure link up by Saturday isn’t as strong as the upper low fails to clear.....but GEM and ECM get there in their own way by the end. 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Unsurprisingly the 00z runs aren’t as good as last nights, but not too bad. The nice high pressure link up by Saturday isn’t as strong as the upper low fails to clear.....but GEM and ECM get there in their own way by the end. 

GFS 00z looks ok then decides to push the block to the NE to Greenland and the lows get trapped and the jet heads south.

EC doesn't extend the block towards Greenland and the Azores high ensures there is no repeat of GFS FI..

GFS looks a bit aggressive against its suite do i will assume it has gone off on one.

I have no idea how it will pan out but Exeters guidance of warmer and drier towards the SE looks a fair stab longer term.

In the meantime sunshine and showers with temps low 20s as a broadbrush sounds reasonable.

[Mike Poole]

Morning models at T144:

UKMO the best, GEM making rather a mess of nosing the trough in, but all are promising pointing to a more settled spell to come.

[Guest]

GFS Ensembles are poor compared to last Nights 12z when the mean averaged 10c for a week, this morning the mean gets to 8c for a few days and that’s about it. With UKMO and ECM looking similar around day6 however we seem for found some consistency. Both gfs and ecm have really poor days on Thursday and Friday as well as some frontal activity gets stuck over southern areas. In fact the outlook for the southwest looks generally poor all week as again, cloud and cool temps are likely to dominant including here, gfs a little more optimistic than ecm but that’s not really saying much is it.

[mb018538]

 

ECM mean still looks good for improvements in a weeks time!

[northwestsnow]

Beauty of an EC mean this morning folks!

 

[bluearmy]

The ecm suite axis of jet is now firmly sw/ne, as is the height spread ....... that’s good news for those wanting rid of these upper troughs headed in our direction ......even this week isn’t going to be too dreadful as we sit under a european type summer col set up 

Whilst we certainly can’t expect a return to the v settled may conditions, it definitely looks like a summery last third of the month is feasible 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ecm suite axis of jet is now firmly sw/ne, as is the height spread ....... that’s good news for those wanting rid of these upper troughs headed in our direction ......even this week isn’t going to be too dreadful as we sit under a european type summer col set up 

Whilst we certainly can’t expect a return to the v settled may conditions, it definitely looks like a summery last third of the month is feasible 

Great news as it stands Blue.

Regional variations will apply but temps in the low 20s locally...

UKMO raw for London even better with mid 70s  back as we head through next weekend...

Edited June 14, 2020 by northwestsnow