Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[johnholmes]

500 mb update Monday 15 June

Ec and gfs are now rather different to one another; ec being quite different to its output over the last 4-5 days, now showing ridging as the main feature with any troughing well away from the uk, south Greenland or the med. Gfs has the uk between the marked ridging southern Europe up into the arctic and a very pronounced cut off low sw of Iceland with a fairly marked s of west flow into the uk.

Noaa shows a similar chart, at any rate not major changes, from its 6-10 day charts for over a week now; marked troughing just about into parts of the west of the uk and a noticeable ridge along with +ve heights ene of the uk.

So as the 3 are not really similar enough to give an overall agreed pattern, best to wait until they converge again. Usually noaa along with ecm are closest but gfs sometimes surprises.

The noaa 8-14 is somewhat different to most of the last few days with less indication of ridging and +ve heights, they are still there but are less marked and an overall atlantic flow is shown into the uk from  main trough down the more eastern states.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

 

Yes very good, even the very worst case scenario would be over 1015 mb. I think the last couple of days have proven that we don't need the pressure to be extremely high in order to get decent summer conditions.

Yes i agree, and the weekend has been beautiful locally...

I'm hoping for more !!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

32 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

 

Yes very good, even the very worst case scenario would be over 1015 mb. I think the last couple of days have proven that we don't need the pressure to be extremely high in order to get decent summer conditions.

Your lucky area, Pennines protect Manchester from north sea fret

[Scorcher]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Your lucky area, Pennines protect Manchester from north sea fret

Yes keep the easterlies coming as far as I'm concerned. Lovely again this morning and already in the high teens.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Yes keep the easterlies coming as far as I'm concerned. Lovely again this morning and already in the high teens.

For my area, looks better from Friday

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Your lucky area, Pennines protect Manchester from north sea fret

Easterlies always good for my location ,for cold in winter,and warmth in summer.

As soon as we see a westerly element its a struggle.

 

[Man With Beard]

Quick look at the ECM individual ensembles.

By D8, between 60% and 70% of members have a reasonably strong ridge of the Azores High over the UK, so odds increasing for the op run path, which would mean great weather for most of next week.

By D13, the pattern has flattened slightly, the Scandi ridge is on the wane, and a westerly influence is evident on far more members, so perhaps reverting to a NW/SE split.

[Guest]

GFS  06Z looks a good run synoptically, very similar to ECM this morning, however anything thats churning out 22C dew points in the south west has to be questioned.....CAPE charts 100% need to ignored on this basis!! 

[mb018538]

Significant number of ecm members look like the UKMO run this morning. Law of sod predicts they are right rather than the more settled option.

[Guest]

No surprised the GFS Ops run is in the top quartile of the ensembles however positively its not a raging a warm outlier and certainly has some support. 

[northwestsnow]

38 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Significant number of ecm members look like the UKMO run this morning. Law of sod predicts they are right rather than the more settled option.

Yes , 37 % going with UKMO ...

Which is exactly the point i made earlier regarding zero confidence mid term onwards.

6z GFS follows EC op but 12z runs will probably offer better guidance..

[Guest]

Jus on the GFS 06Z ensembles again there is a clear split from about the 21st onwards, two groups pretty much 50/50 from what I can see. Group 1 ploughs the low pretty much straight into the UK. Group 2 the high pressure builds in strongly bringing warmth & sunshine, seems to be very little in between, certainly down here. 

[Frosty.]

Looking through the GEFS 6z there’s some good signs in the mid range for sure with a suggestion from the mean for an Azores / Scandi heights link up and even further ahead, let’s just say, I’ve seen worse!...in the meantime, If you like it warm and humid with sunshine and heavy, thundery showers, you have the perfect week for it!!

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Significant number of ecm members look like the UKMO run this morning. Law of sod predicts they are right rather than the more settled option.

Not this year I don't think...there's something different about this year...I believe the settled option will win out.

[wellington boot]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Significant number of ecm members look like the UKMO run this morning. Law of sod predicts they are right rather than the more settled option.

Law of sod / law of UKMO just being the best model and basically always being right...

[Zak M]

Viewing the 06z GFS ensembles, it looks like a few members are going for a warm up next week.

The operational is an outlier in terms of SLP. It's going for a rather intense thundery breakdown during then which I don't think will happen. Op is a bit of an outlier in terms of temperature but a few more members are actually backing this.

The chances of this coming off are very slim but if it was ever to come off, then we could expect temperatures in England widely into the mid-high twenties, as we all know that the GFS undercooks temperatures by a few degrees

Edited June 15, 2020 by Zak M

[Mike Poole]

Good outcome on the ICON 12z for the south, here T180:

I think some kind of evolution towards this is likely over the next week to 10 days, not sure about the details of what happens between now and then, but I'm expecting to see the models converge on settled in the medium term as AAM starts to rebound.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO ends in a promising place too T144:

Again, better further south.  

[Leo97t]

ICON GFS UKMO now all going for a slower progression of the Azores high to get overhead

Edit: GFS not keen on a high at all

Edited June 15, 2020 by Leo97t

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO ends in a promising place too T144:

Again, better further south.  

Looks similar to EC 00z det so hopefully would be a very similar progression..

Was kind of fearing a UKMO trough fest but 12z looks OK with the Azores high riding to the rescue..

[Methuselah]

According to the GFS 12Z, Saturday, at least, should be okay...But, where is that low going to go?

    

And it's not at all bad at Day 10!

    

Edited June 15, 2020 by General Cluster

[swfc]

I'm thinking things look ok in the weather going forward?A lot of det talk etc but looks pretty normal UK summer imomixed at times but generally ok temp wise 

[Guest]

UKMO is more promising and certainly aligns with ECM from this morning however its a close call. GFS makes a complete meal of the low pressure and its not until day 8 or 9 it really settles down. I wouldn't mind better GFS from Friday onwards is in the cooler half of the ensembles. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

I'm thinking things look ok in the weather going forward?A lot of det talk etc but looks pretty normal UK summer imomixed at times but generally ok temp wise 

Yes, sunshine and showers with temps in the 20+ category most days before we hit the weekend by which time the south and south east in particular should be the warmer spots..at this juncture we don't really know how far the Atlantic will penetrate or for how long.

 

[Mike Poole]

GEM shaping up very nicely at T180: 

I think we are finally getting some clarity from the models about where we are headed.   Uncertainty has been rife with this set up, but now I think the models are converging on a settled spell, probably favouring the south initially in about a weeks time.  Let's see what the ECM thinks this afternoon...