Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T96:

I think that low with the orientation is just going to fuel a big height rise to our east and set up a plume scenario, we will see...

Edited June 17, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Ice Day]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z T96:

I think that low with the orientation is just going to fuel a bit height rise to our east and set up a plume scenario, we will see...

Good call.  The placement of that low is going to be crucial to how the following days pan out.  We could do with it just edging back north and west a bit more to make it more palatable to our western members.  It's certainly trying out to 138

Edited June 17, 2020 by Ice Day

[Mike Poole]

So this is 6 days away:  GFS 18z at T144:

[Mike Poole]

Day 7, T168:

I think the SE is nailed on for a hot shot mid next week now,  less settled further NW mind....

[Ice Day]

Out to 186 and it's looking really good.  I've seen enough, happy note to go to bed on!

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144...

And the 850's..

Hot hot hot...

 

[Griff]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144...

And the 850's..

Hot hot hot...

 

A joy to wake up to this morning... 

Finally have our first significant rainfall in months as I type, here in Oxfordshire, and the model prospects look good. 

Thanks all! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts/850s

GFS/UKMO/GEM

      

         

The UKMO and GEM look good with a continental feed from Wednesday (Albeit fairly brief), the GFS however is pretty flat this morning with a broad west to south west flow, the south east looks decent but there would be a front straddled across the middle of the country for several days as the boundary between the warmth to the south and Atlantic air remains in place.

For context the GEFs

The operational is one of, if not the most pessimistic of the ensemble suite with most taking a similar path to the UKMO/GEM solutions.

Edited June 18, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

ECM also turning on the flamethrower by Wednesday. 00z temps show 26c on Tuesday and 28c by midday on Wednesday, as well as 30c Thursday. First 30c plus of the year incoming if ecm and ukmo verify.

Edited June 18, 2020 by mb018538

[bluearmy]

Final third of the moment continues to look promising for summertime conditions .......gradually better as you head se as a background and still weak upper troughs likely to try and make inroads from time to time 

[Man With Beard]

Looks like the ECM has positioned the cut off low perfectly by D7, this is going to be hot... 

[Captain Shortwave]

Second run in a row that the ECM has produced that shallow secondary low, this time it has developed into a cut off feature. Very close to achieving a furnace run (pattern probably a little too flat this time around).

[mb018538]

The ECM 00z also has temperatures staying between 20-22c all night in parts of the E/SE on Wednesday and Thursday night into Friday:

Now that’s an uncomfortable night for anyone!

[mb018538]

I’m going to guess this will be the top ecm run on the ensembles. Probably best run of the summer if you want a bit of heat for a few days. That cut off low is massively important as it helps turn the flow much more continental than the GFS - which is by no means terrible either.

[northwestsnow]

Well   EC turns on the hairdryer ...

Weekend onwards looks fabulous for many with temps climbing into the high 20s for favoured spots by mid week.

I'm quite blessed to live in the foothills of the Pennines which has some beautiful scenery and some excellent waters to fish.Hopefully as i am off work next week i can set the alarm for 6am and head off to the pond ,much more appealing in the sunshine !

Ramble aside i'm hoping we see a few storms at some point next week ,it could get interesting...

 

[Methuselah]

Aye, as others have already intimated, that secondary low (GFS 00Z) could do with gaining a bit more definition; as that would almost guarantee us at least a short, sharp El Scorchio!

    

    

All seems to sort of 'lose the plot' after T+240 or so...But, I'll leave the gory details to @Alderc. Morning Chris!

Well, I'd say that the critical point occurs somewhere around June 27th, as ens scatter takes over around that time?

    

    

At least there are no signs of a Greenland block setting up, any time soon. Allah be praised!

    

    

[mb018538]

ECM a big outlier at the end as you’d expect....but let’s look at the positives here. The mean is close to or at 15c for 4 days from Tuesday to Friday. A significant warm up for 3/4 days is looking ever more likely.

[Man With Beard]

Interesting that as the uppers increase late next week on the ECM, the temperatures slightly decrease away from the south as Atlantic air undercuts from the north - not that one again! Still, three days of raw temps 30-32C in the south, which would represent a decent heatwave, but lots to go under the bridge and still very much the chance of the hottest part of the plume missing to the east. Given the mean chart, though, a decent chance of achieving our first 30C of the year next week. 

[Man With Beard]

And here's something for the pure model nerds, there are some pretty spectacular ECM ensembles this morning (about 20% support for the op up until next Friday), and this particular ensemble breaks the scale - watch how it builds between next Thursday and the following Tuesday - bear in mind these these are 1pm temperatures, not maximums - so probably pushing 100F by the end of the heatwave

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m50_temperature/20200625-1200z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m50_temperature/20200626-1200z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m50_temperature/20200627-1200z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m50_temperature/20200628-1200z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m50_temperature/20200629-1200z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/m50_temperature/20200630-1200z.html

 

[damianslaw]

Mmm not sure about ECM this morning and the cut off low idea, suspect it's an outlier, too much forcing from the Atlantic. As often the case probably end up with a half-way house between GFS and ECM, ridge building through UK next week, but temporary feature, before Atlantic trough moves in by the weekend. Significant heat reserves for very far SE only, too much of a SW fetch from the Atlantic else way. High 20s central parts probable Thursday 25th, 30 degrees quite likely far SE. 

[johnholmes]

Thursday 18 June 500 mb update

Ec-gfs both pretty similar with the major trough position, ec more rounded, then both having European ridging into northern Scandinavia, largely blocking any eastward movement of the trough. Both rather different from those above, ec especially. Noaa is not much different to the ec-gfs ideas on the contour set up, it has not markedly changed in a week or more, minor adjustments to the shapes and intensities/positions of the major trough-ridge close to the uk. Nor is its 8-14 so much different regarding the trough, moved slightly east as it shifts/declines the ridge slightly e.

As mean charts none suggest any lengthy ridging at 500 mb, nor probably at the surface but that does not preclude short spells, say 48-72 hours or so when either troughing or ridging at 500 mb will govern the surface weather. To me it looks like, on average, nw-se differences with more changeable for the nw and less so for the se quadrant of the uk? It should be reasonably warm other than the odd day in more central regions of the country, similar to today when frontal activity is more noticeable and not just for the nw quadrant of the uk? Storms? Well these charts, as currently showing give no guidance in my view; the recent days of storms from the se are the result of the old cold pool that brought the surface low down from Iceland some days ago.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

[Methuselah]

Out to T+120 and the GFS 06Z is looking okay...27C for the SE?

    

[I remember Atlantic 252]

384 hours, people back to pub in the wet?

[sheikhy]

Upgrade from gfs 06z and more in line with ecm and ukmo!!heat further west as well!!fantastic output if you like heat!!

[Scorcher]

7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Upgrade from gfs 06z and more in line with ecm and ukmo!!heat further west as well!!fantastic output if you like heat!!

Not sure it's an upgrade in terms of heat- the uppers are lower but it certainly prolongs the more settled conditions. I wouldn't be surprised if this run is an outlier in terms of temperature.