South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[SMU]

Good afternoon South Easterners-

Today has felt like the first day of a proper cold spell, its 2.8c here but the air has a proper bite when you walk outside.

Slate grey skies, 0c dewpoint is what a winters day should be all about ....

Garden looking a bit rough- needs an hour TLC

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Sorry not getting you at all - You know how Convection works with higher Solar Input - If you were on these boards in 2006 you would have seen in these threads the excitement at huge towering Cbs with possible Thundersnow due to the Sun being stronger making stronger Snow Showers heading into the SE over a 3 week period but end result was slack flow and poor Uppers creating wishy washy 10 minute snow showers. Hence the observation of 19 days out of the 28 containing snow falling from the sky.

So again I dont get your point at next week being better than Feb 2006 - If you can explain it am all ears as this is Interesting

Edit : Or do you mean the snow has a better chance of sticking around on the ground re the time of year

That and it would also be colder than in late feb, with same atmospheric conditions. I remind myself the second baby beast later in mid March 2018, by then being so late the sea was too cold to generate much convection, and the snow didn’t lay well hardly, the same seen early in winter it would have been significantly better even with worse uppers I think. I think a lot of patterns depend on the time of year. Earlier in winter you can get more with less. 

[SMU]

15 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Sorry not getting you at all - You know how Convection works with higher Solar Input - If you were on these boards in 2006 you would have seen in these threads the excitement at huge towering Cbs with possible Thundersnow due to the Sun being stronger making stronger Snow Showers heading into the SE over a 3 week period but end result was slack flow and poor Uppers creating wishy washy 10 minute snow showers. Hence the observation of 19 days out of the 28 containing snow falling from the sky.

So again I dont get your point at next week being better than Feb 2006 - If you can explain it am all ears as this is Interesting

Edit : Or do you mean the snow has a better chance of sticking around on the ground re the time of year

If everything was net net the same synoptic pattern as say Feb 2006 & it was next week

Could the low solar input be compensated by the anomalous warmth of the SSTs... at 12c ( Would have been about 6c in Feb )

 

S

[Eagle Eye]

There is a slight Eastward shift in the Jet Stream that is why this didn't work out. 

This one has a higher chance to

And Tommorrow we could see a Returning Snow Storm happen twice. 

[MAF]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Good afternoon South Easterners-

.....

Garden looking a bit rough- needs an hour TLC

off you go then Steve  

currently 3.6C here and high grey cloud. still not seen a frost the last 5 days/nights. 

[Jackski4]

3 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

There is a slight Eastward shift in the Jet Stream that is why this didn't work out. 

This one has a higher chance to

And Tommorrow we could see a Returning Snow Storm happen twice. 

Mate if you’re correct there will be some very happy folk here as nobody has forecast this yet. Fingers crossed...

[danm]

46 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its pretty borderline looking to me, the 850hpa temps are pretty tame it has to be said...however to be fair to Daniel SST's are higher than they would have been back in the 80s, so it may well be we don't need to go quite as cold to spark convection (though on its own its not all that impressive I admit). Less certainty but there does look like there is some weak wave action in the north sea that may help to create some instability in its own right, something the ensembles have been hinting at. Put the two together and I suspect there will be convection around.

My bigger concern would potentially be the air just isn't cold enough. It looks to me like a wintry mix type set-up, where heavier precip turns to snow, but as soon as it eases back to sleet/rain. any settling snow probably for higher ground or overnight.

The airflow as modeled reminds me of the Feb 2006 spell, plenty of falling snow but little in the way of accumulation apart from any overnight stuff.

Feb 2005 you mean? Don’t remember any easterly in 2006. 

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

There is a slight Eastward shift in the Jet Stream that is why this didn't work out. 

This one has a higher chance to

And Tommorrow we could see a Returning Snow Storm happen twice. 

For what it's worth my temp is 0.9 and my DP is -0.1 , so as long as there's no warm sector in front of that lot may be.

However knowing my luck there will be.

Edited December 29, 2020 by alexisj9

[Paul Sherman]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

If everything was net net the same synoptic pattern as say Feb 2006 & it was next week

Could the low solar input be compensated by the anomalous warmth of the SSTs... at 12c ( Would have been about 6c in Feb )

 

S

So as a good exercise is there anyway of knowing what the North Sea SSTs were on the 10th Jan 1987 seeing as its a similar time of year obvs without the same level of cold on tap to our NE over Scandi just to see where we might be at just for fun 

[MP-R]

1 minute ago, danm said:

Feb 2005 you mean? Don’t remember any easterly in 2006. 

That’s partly the point. The 2006 easterly was even less impressive than the 2005 one despite its length. Similarly to the winter before, it was the northerlies that brought the coldest and snowiest weather.

[alexisj9]

Looking at radar I'm not sure that small upper low is gonna swing, we'll see later though I expect.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Looking at radar I'm not sure that small upper low is gonna swing, we'll see later though I expect.

No its not.. Its forecast to head dead south now into the channel. I think most high res showed this solution yesterday afternoon.. 

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Looking at radar I'm not sure that small upper low is gonna swing, we'll see later though I expect.

It ain't. 

I would stick to the models than the ramblings of a very enthusiastic teenager

[kold weather]

14 minutes ago, danm said:

Feb 2005 you mean? Don’t remember any easterly in 2006. 

Both years had northern blocking at a similar time of year, I may well be thinking of Feb 2005!

Though Feb 2006 also did have similar flows to what we are forecasted to see:

Neither were exactly that impressive, though March did end up pretty cold and at times snowy in 2006.

 

 

[danm]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Both years had northern blocking at a similar time of year, I may well be thinking of Feb 2005!

Though Feb 2006 also did have similar flows to what we are forecasted to see:

Neither were exactly that impressive, though March did end up pretty cold and at times snowy in 2006.

 

 

Yep it was Feb ‘05 that had plenty of falling snow but very little settling. 

[BLS]

Afternoon all

 

i haven’t commented on here in a good few years but always kept an eye on it ! I’m currently living in headcorn area now but in between ashford and Maidstone and looking at the charts for tomorrow I have a horrible feeling we are just going to miss the snow tomorrow. What are everyone’s thoughts on this ? 

[SMU]

Temp tracker now 3pm. Down to 2.5c.

Hoping to break into the negatives tonight !!

[Sarahgreatchart]

What’s happening ?

 

yamkin is back that means snow

 

hubby was given a warning 2 days ago of snow weds-thurs (he is ambulance service) 

[Eagle Eye]

15 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

It ain't. 

I would stick to the models than the ramblings of a very enthusiastic teenager

This is what the Models are saying I'm going by the Models and some low level Precipitation coming from the East. 

Although I did say West looking at the Netweather Model the Systems are connected with low level Precipitation it can look like the Sleet is coming from that one when you first look at it plus looking at the JET Stream for that time you can clearly see that the Channel Rain in the Radar was turning East which could be an indication of where it is. Sure go on about me being enthusiastic but we follow the Models but they aren't exact but the Jet Stream i've found is good close to our time and looking at the Radar we can see the Easternly Shift happening even in that Band Of Precipitation Sorry For Ranting but this indication of the Eastward Shift This Is The same system. 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Historic if this even Remotely had a Chance Of coming off.

[Hotspur62]

Temperature peaked here in Locksbottom at 2.8 about 2pm and now down to 2.3.As Steve Murr said a little earlier it feels raw out there and is 1 degree colder than yesterday.All eyes will be on the track of tomorrow’s feature and whether it brings the SE It’s first significant snowfall this winter(appreciate a lucky few saw snow in early December).

For us all

[E17boy]

Hi good afternoon peeps

Hope everyone is well and you all had s lovely Christmas. I have not posted here for some time, sadly my dad passed away 3 weeks ago so up to now it has not been really good times for me. 

A rather cold grey day in Walthamstow today grey laden sky's but nothing has fallen from the sky.

looks like the Midlands have been lucky again today with the snow. I have been reading through the posts to try and catch up. To be honest tomorrow's event even at this stage I don't think has been resolved yet. The track of this system I bet is giving a lot of headache at Exeter. However I personally have not got any high expectations just so not to be disheartened at the end as I do not need that at this moment of time. Hopefully fingers crossed we might strike lucky in our region.

What does interest me is the direction of travel after this system clears. From what I saw yesterday looks as if winds will swing more NE and the BBC did show a crop of snow showers coming our way from New Years night into early New Year's Day before things dry up. I don't know how this stands today it might be a complete different picture but the snow graphics for our region looked good, also taking into consideration we tend to do better here in a NE or E wind direction puts us in a good place as long as temperatures and due points are good.

Thereafter over the weekend there is much talk of the wind direction switching to an Easterly component and colder air incoming. Again I don't know if that still stands or if that has changed. If this does happen then I would say we will be in a better place for seeing some snow in our region.

As always this is a very complicated setup and there are pockets of systems everywhere so the situation keeps changing so best to keep an eye on the latest developments. 

I do hope we see some of the white stuff it will certainly cheer us up to what has been a horrible year. I hope everyone stays safe and in good health at these difficult times. Fingers crossed for some snow.

take care all

stay safe

THE SEARCH FOR OUR WINTER WONDERLAND GOES ON

kind regards

[Kentspur]

6 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Historic if this even Remotely had a Chance Of coming off.

Excuse me for being a pessimist? But historic? I don't understand what you're on about? This just shows a random GFS image way out with a load of sleet over us? Can you please explain more clearly what you mean?

[Cableguy]

 

58 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

There is a slight Eastward shift in the Jet Stream that is why this didn't work out. 

This one has a higher chance to

And Tommorrow we could see a Returning Snow Storm happen twice. 

Like the Jetstream influences surface conditions in the short term........

Edited December 29, 2020 by Cableguy

[matty40s]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Excuse me for being a pessimist? But historic? I don't understand what you're on about? This just shows a random GFS image way out with a load of sleet over us? Can you please explain more clearly what you mean?

Hes only 13, probably not seen snow stick before.