South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Does anybody know why all that coming from the North Sea just fizzles out as it hits land?

Has got as far as Norwich at times then just disappears?thanks x

The warm SSTs with cool air moving over it creates a good environment for "lift" and creates showers. They sustain themselves over the "warm" water (not that warm!!) and then loose the energy source when over land.. The bigger the temperature difference between the surface of the sea and air/upper air temp the more "lift" you get.. 

[Floatylight]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

The warm SSTs with cool air moving over it creates a good environment for "lift" and creates showers. They sustain themselves over the "warm" water (not that warm!!) and then loose the energy source when over land.. The bigger the temperature difference between the surface of the sea and air/upper air temp the more "lift" you get.. 

Oh I get you.

Thank you xx

[Hotspur62]

Yes since Xmas eve the weather has been cool rather than cold in the south east although today felt the coldest day here since early December.We hit only 2.8 degrees here in Locksbottom which is 3-4 degrees below a late December average.The models suggest a continuation of this coldish weather for another week at least but because of the lack of colder uppers in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe ( the likes of Tallinn,Riga are still at about 0-2 degrees when we need them to be say -2  - -4) even when we have good Synoptics ,the ruddy North Sea is a bit too warm and any showers early next week will again be on the marginal side and could be just cold rain or sleet!I share everyone’s frustration and whilst it is lovely to see pictures of snow in other regionals,equally it makes it hard to take at the same time still seeing the landscapes green down here.It seems we are doomed with tomorrow’s event as it has tracked that 20-30 miles further south than most of us wanted in here,yet this time last night most of us were in the firing line of receiving 5-15cms of snow.We will have our time of snow I am still optimistic on that but we will just have to wait a bit longer than we thought last night.

Stay positive people and it will happen

[Jackski4]

Radar still building the system higher and higher above Galway.. Maybe I will do that snow dance after all to make it come my way

[Jamie M]

1 hour ago, WxHerts said:

I'm not entirely sure where it's coming from but the map on MO's site actually shows more interest on Friday morning as opposed to Thurs...many hours of light snow through the small hours, with temperatures widely sub zero! I've heard that they use some extended form of UKV for this but again I'm not entirely sure.

Probably the little trough feature that's on the FAX charts as the low starts to pivot on Friday morning, bringing the potential for some wintry showers.

[Wivenswold]

I'm not waiting up, a clear, cold night to come in Essex. 

Time to finish off the Stollen and drift off to sleep. 

 

[Floatylight]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Radar still building the system higher and higher above Galway.. Maybe I will do that snow dance after all to make it come my way

Yes it is ,trying to find that radar we used to look at that goes further out to the west.

I thought it was metiociel but couldn't find it?

[BLS]

I fear seeing the first +3 +6 of the latest gfs up till midnight tonight even that has dropped it further south now just by the line it’s coming into Ireland   

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Floatylight said:

Yes it is ,trying to find that radar we used to look at that goes further out to the west.

I thought it was metiociel but couldn't find it?

I don’t know, sorry. I’m just going to stay up for a bit longer to see how it evolves 

[Paul Sherman]

1 minute ago, Wivenswold said:

I'm not waiting up, a clear, cold night to come in Essex. 

Time to finish off the Stollen and drift off to sleep. 

 

Wait ?  You have clear Skies ? 

Not seen anything but battleship grey for 3 days now 

You never know you might even get a Frost 

[BLS]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

I don’t know, sorry. I’m just going to stay up for a bit longer to see how it evolves 

That’s my plan 

[BLS]

The GFS update does not look good and has dropped it further south with rain on the coastlines  

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

The GFS update does not look good and has dropped it further south with rain on the coastlines  

Doesn’t look good according to GFS. BUT I do believe this is going to be a nowcast. Do you know when the next Harlem is?

[Southender]

That’s Essex and those further North done for then

[Paul Sherman]

I did say earlier that the GFS plays catch up with the better models at Mesoscale so seeing it drop the signal for precip is not surprising and expect to see almost nothing on the 00z

Cannon Fodder Model when it comes to Precip but more especially Storms and Convective stuff.

Onto the next event

[BLS]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Doesn’t look good according to GFS. BUT I do believe this is going to be a nowcast. Do you know when the next Harlem is?

Not sure mate where are you based ? And yeah with watching the live radar I think don’t read to much into it until is over the Cornwall area 

[Matty J]

3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

I did say earlier that the GFS plays catch up with the better models at Mesoscale so seeing it drop the signal for precip is not surprising and expect to see almost nothing on the 00z

Cannon Fodder Model when it comes to Precip but more especially Storms and Convective stuff.

Onto the next event

Not sure I’ve got the stomach to chase the next event, only to be let down again at T-24

[Uxbridge90]

At least we know now that tomorrow is a bust rather than as it's happening, no need to stay up and watch the charts/lampposts, hopefully some more luck with the next event/s

 

[abruzzi spartan]

1 hour ago, TomSE12 said:

Sssh Jo, don't mention the Snow Depth Cup!!

I got blamed for jinxing our Snow chances, back then.

Did you ever manage to find your white stilettos, in the Snow?

Regards,

Tom.  

Hello again Tom.  Hope you're OK.  I was your 'legal advisor' on the Snow Cup, albeit with a slightly different user name.  I'm still dealing with the litigation all these years later

  

[Jackski4]

4 minutes ago, Spraggyy said:

Not sure mate where are you based ? And yeah with watching the live radar I think don’t read to much into it until is over the Cornwall area 

Based in Southend my dude, just wishful thinking I guess but regardless of the GFS it looks further north but, what do I know  

[snowblind]

Temps going in the wrong direction here. Just reached the highest temp since Sunday at 2.9c. 

[BLS]

4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Based in Southend my dude, just wishful thinking I guess but regardless of the GFS it looks further north but, what do I know  

I think the only chance of anything now is something happening overnight !! Or later in the day as it might pivot back on itself, Friday is another good chance of seeing something just a dusting maybe 

[etched Chaos]

Pretty depressing charts for me right now. I've not seen a single chart with snow for me :(, and every update makes it less and less likely, sigh.

[Sarahgreatchart]

Is it all over for this week then? For the whole region ? 

[BLS]

1 minute ago, Sarahgreatchart said:

Is it all over for this week then? For the whole region ? 

No