Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards

[Northern Strath]

2 hours ago, Mair Snaw said:

Well its all doom and gloom in the mad house, shortwave drama and the ukmo has spat the dummy out and its wibble wobble time on the gfs and ecm... the Americans dont like it and the champagne is back on ice and the corner shop is running out of Rizzla and Golden Virginia

I quite often have this in my head when reading the model thread 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C6ZDsUGiGqM

[shuggee]

Not posted all week. Here's the photo that quite simply sums it up:

[Glaswegianblizzard]

I spat the dummy out on the model thread the other day. Made the mistake of believing them this week and it all, unsurprisingly went to pot. Now they’re all excited about a few days later, then a few days after that.....

[Puffy MacCloud]

Forget the models, Diablo he say Snow; so you can forget that idea then.

 

[SW Saltire]

13th - 18th of this month we have recorded, according to SEPA statistics of nearest weather station, over 125mm of rain. 
More rain today... wonderful

Please Santa, give us Cold, dry, crisp sunshine and maybe just maybe some snow! 

[Sanserit]

What a strange day it's been considering it's mid-December. Heavy showers this morning, followed by bright blue skies for a time in the middle of the day. Rain's back on again and wind increasing. Temperature has gone from a high of 10.5c at 1am to 8.0c now, I was out delivering Christmas cards in  a jumper earlier which is unheard of for this time of year on Deeside.

[Northernlights]

Fine day to shift finally  empty  old oil tank and get new one in place just needs a fill up now.No pressure from the other half otherwise it will be  a tongue soup Christmas.                       Currently 6c clear with a light breeze

[Sceptical]

21 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Fine day to shift finally  empty  old oil tank and get new one in place just needs a fill up now.No pressure from the other half otherwise it will be  a tongue soup Christmas.                       Currently 6c clear with a light breeze

Good time to buy Kero, prices are cheap as chips. I topped off the rank with 500 litres this week for £180. 

 

[Klippie]

What’s everyone’s thoughts...will we get snow next week or will the Azores high pressure intensify and kill off anything cold.

I’ve a feeling the latter will win out, the last few winters have seen the Azores high pressure establish itself for what seemed like all winter with the jet to the north and the UK  stuck in mild wet and windy pish...I hope I’am wrong as the last thing I want to endure is four months of an extended Autumnal  weather pattern.

 

 

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Klippie said:

What’s everyone’s thoughts...will we get snow next week or will the Azores high pressure intensify and kill off anything cold.

I’ve a feeling the latter will win out, the last few winters have seen the Azores high pressure establish itself for what seemed like all winter with the jet to the north and the UK  stuck in mild wet and windy pish...I hope I’am wrong as the last thing I want to endure is four months of an extended Autumnal  weather pattern.

 

 

Much colder uppers will be brought in next week, and more of a NW flow, high chance of something wintry in Scotland I feel. 

[Sceptical]

9 minutes ago, Klippie said:

What’s everyone’s thoughts...will we get snow next week or will the Azores high pressure intensify and kill off anything cold.

I’ve a feeling the latter will win out, the last few winters have seen the Azores high pressure establish itself for what seemed like all winter with the jet to the north and the UK  stuck in mild wet and windy pish...I hope I’am wrong as the last thing I want to endure is four months of an extended Autumnal  weather pattern.

 

 

I caught the BBC weather tonight, they see Xmas day temperatures ranging between 4c- 9c. Plenty of time for change.

[Ravelin]

I'd think our best bet of snow isn't on Xmas day, but 27th onwards, or a sneaky shower on Xmas Eve. It's certainly going to feel colder next week, but predicting snow is fraught with danger. If the models are correct then we're certainly in the game, it's just a case of whether or not we can actually score. 

I'd stay out of the MAD thread tonight, not that there's toys flying, it's just all "the GFS is best...no it's not, the ECM is best... no, that's useless, the GFS is king... but the GFS is moving towards the ECM solution...no its not, the ECM is trending to the GFS". 

Best looking synoptics we've probably seen in years in Dec and they are still arguing. Yes there are differences, yes it might not be snowy, but we ain't looking at weeks of wind and rain coming from the SW for a change. 

I swear if it was snowing outside some of them would be too busy sitting in front of thier PC to notice. Probably arguing that the 850s are too marginal for snow over thier house. 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Ravelin

[LomondSnowstorm]

6 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I'd think our best bet of snow isn't on Xmas day, but 27th onwards, or a sneaky shower on Xmas Eve. It's certainly going to feel colder next week, but predicting snow is fraught with danger. If the models are correct then we're certainly in the game, it's just a case of whether or not we can actually score. 

I'd stay out of the MAD thread tonight, not that there's toys flying, it's just all "the GFS is best...no it's not, the ECM is best... no, that's useless, the GFS is king... but the GFS is moving towards the ECM solution...no its not, the ECM is trending to the GFS". 

Best looking synoptics we've probably seen in years in Dec and they are still arguing. Yes there are differences, yes it might not be snowy, but we ain't looking at weeks of wind and rain coming from the SW for a change. 

I swear if it was snowing outside some of them would be too busy sitting in front of thier PC to notice. Probably arguing that the 850s are too marginal for snow over thier house. 

I'd broadly agree with this (also, amazing how that model thread is exactly the same as it was, what, 11 years ago? Utterly tedious in many ways!) I'll take a closer look tomorrow but there's certainly some December 2009 looking charts in the GFS output, albeit you can't have much confidence in the output at this stage. 

 

A lot of the signs are decent. I'm not sure quite how robust the blocking is but I do think there's at least some cause for optimism, especially since the kinds of setups we're looking at are more favourable to snow in Scotland. And given the restrictions, we might as well be cut off by snow for three weeks after Christmas anyway! 

 

Stay safe folks and I'll check in properly soon. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

9 minutes ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

I'd broadly agree with this (also, amazing how that model thread is exactly the same as it was, what, 11 years ago? Utterly tedious in many ways!) I'll take a closer look tomorrow but there's certainly some December 2009 looking charts in the GFS output, albeit you can't have much confidence in the output at this stage. 

 

A lot of the signs are decent. I'm not sure quite how robust the blocking is but I do think there's at least some cause for optimism, especially since the kinds of setups we're looking at are more favourable to snow in Scotland. And given the restrictions, we might as well be cut off by snow for three weeks after Christmas anyway! 

 

Stay safe folks and I'll check in properly soon. 

Yeah I mentioned in my post in the model thread earlier there really isn’t any point stressing over the differences from each model on each and every run, takes about 0.0000001 milliseconds for folk to start saying it’s a downgrade etc etc agree with @Ravelin ‘s comments too hence why when it comes to the juicy snowy details I’ll stick to posting in here as for Christmas I will need to see how the short range models trend over the next few days but I think it gets colder from 23rd into Christmas Eve possibly some troughs in the flow could bring a bit of wintry potential and likely many areas of Scotland seeing frost at the least, my interest is in the events after currently the charts are making me think of a less intense version of when the low (section of PV) dropped over us in mid December 2010  

[Quinach]

Well, as far as the kids are concerned, Santa Claus is now called Nicola Sturgeon thanks to the extra weeks holiday and no return to the school until at least the 18th January.

Just hope there is snow now to keep the kids amused.

All very tenuous the situation, shops were busy in Westhill today with plenty of covidiots not keeping the right distancing etc.

Getting back to the weather, a blustery day with plenty of heavy showers of rain - these mainly in the morning and early afternoon.  Max of 8.2c was at 10:45, gradually cooling off as the day progressed.

[Quinach]

13 hours ago, Northern Strath said:

This was where I grew up and go back generations so really enjoyed seeing this pop up @Quinach  If you wander around that graveyard you can see stones with abrasions from local clansmen sharpening their swords before battle. Was last there in the summer 

 

Same can be seen in the woods just along the road at Gask with the Clach An Airm (stone of the swords). Plenty history in the Strath, with plenty Druid and Pictish sites, some of the history being very dark, it’s proximity to Culloden meant the retribution in its aftermath was particularly terrible there.

The area is great in winter, gets enough snow to cultivate a life long love of the stuff anyway

We’ve had a similar battering with the rain this last while as other poor sods, some sun around today though and hopeful for this colder change to make it more seasonal

Dunlichity graveyard is where my parents are buried so it was good to be able to visit it whilst in the area - as they put it when they bought the lairs decades ago, we're there for the long term and the view is a lot better than at Craig Dunain (Kilvean cemetery)!  Some really old graves there, the most interesting ones to me are the ones lying horizontal on the ground from the 1700's.  They are usually covered up but the skull and crossbone engravings on them are fascinating.

Sad to see the church itself stop being used last year - http://www.strathsnairnanddearn.co.uk/dunlichity-church/, building still in good nick though and long may that continue.

Edited December 20, 2020 by Quinach

[Northernlights]

2 hours ago, Quinach said:

Dunlichity graveyard is where my parents are buried so it was good to be able to visit it whilst in the area - as they put it when they bought the lairs decades ago, we're there for the long term and the view is a lot better than at Craig Dunain (Kilvean cemetery)!  Some really old graves there, the most interesting ones to me are the ones lying horizontal on the ground from the 1700's.  They are usually covered up but the skull and crossbone engravings on them are fascinating.

Sad to see the church itself stop being used last year - http://www.strathsnairnanddearn.co.uk/dunlichity-church/, building still in good nick though and long may that continue.

My family too go back generations in this area as tenants on the same farm for almost three hundred years. Probably from  around the time of Culloden. They were most likely descended from stonemasons brought in to build Cawdor church who  I think were given farm tenancies as part of their renumeration on completion of the church

[mardatha]

Loving the history stuff Not that I'm at all churchy, but they are always connected to the history of an area. The same names seem to go back centuries and the farm names too.

Wide awake here since 4am, will be Death on Legs by the afternoon. Weather seems to be calm ootside, not cold.

[Sanserit]

25 minutes ago, mardatha said:

Loving the history stuff Not that I'm at all churchy, but they are always connected to the history of an area. The same names seem to go back centuries and the farm names too.

Wide awake here since 4am, will be Death on Legs by the afternoon. Weather seems to be calm ootside, not cold.

Wide awake here since 4am too thanks to a dog deciding she wanted out for a pee. She's now sleeping soundly and I'm lying listening to the wind howling through the trees. Sky was really clear tho and stars looked brighter than I've seen them for quite some time.  Currently 7.3c.

I love history stuff too and also love trying to work out where farm names come from, there's some real crackers amongst our client list.

[mardatha]

There's one I saw in Stow churchyard called Remote. That one stuck in my mind but I never found out where it is.

[Sceptical]

A colder brighter start this morning, temperature of 4.5C.  The latest Met Office forecast is now showing temperatures picking up through Christmas day and into boxing day as the winds switch to a WSW direction.  Before then, a few days of colder drier weather to enjoy.

Latest Met Office tweet stating they don't see "anything majorily cold" at this time. 

Mmmmmm.

 

[mistyqueen]

Morning happy campers! Yesterday dawned bright and sunny ( yes, really! ) so I took myself off tae the Big Smoke ( Portree ) in search of essentials. Came home with peanuts and fat balls for the birdies, a new wheelbarrow for me and a snow shovel. That last one was a mistake. I see that now. Sorry, I've now jinxed all possibility  of  any snow falling anywhere in Scotland now. Forgive me. 

Anyhoo, I have blue skies and light cloud at the front of the house and showers at the back. Just another normal day on Skye! Temp 5.6c. So boring! Doubt I'll see anything of the ' Christmas Star ' then!

[Benvironment]

1 hour ago, mistyqueen said:

Temp 5.6c. 

Snap! And apart from the 11.6C the other day, it's pretty much been 6C and wet here every day for what feels like weeks now. It feels like someone's pressed 'PAUSE' on our weather.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Latest gfs has us well within the cool air sub 528 dam from 27th right until the end of the run and low pressure, should be an interesting one from a snow forecasting POV we have already seen what can happen with around the same upper air temps that are shown (-4) probably still a bit of time to hopefully get them a little bit lower either way likely to be a setup that holds wintry surprises. Also overnight wrf eu has an ice day across Scotland on Christmas Eve  

[Puffy MacCloud]

Well, look at the clever boys and girls making up for a cancelled Christmas by re-running Hallowe'en with a creepy graveyard visit. Very historical and atmospheric. This part of Ayrshire is deep in Covenanter country so there are a fair few overtly bigoted gravestones about that use outrageous language to describe the hell-bound oppressors of good Presbyterian folk. Meanwhile, it's light grey outside and the ground is dry for the first time in a week. Oh, and my father has been taken into hospital with Covid pneumonia, so our Christmas celebration has gone from five days to one day to no days at all. Bah humbug!

Temperature 7.4deg.C up from a minimum of 6.3deg.C at 01:17, humidity is 86%, wind has dropped to 2 to 4mph south-southeasterly following a max gust of 16mph at 02:29, pressure is 1003.7hPa rising, there's been no rain today and although cloud cover is 8/8 it's pretty thin and allowing a brightish day.