Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Paul]

Christmas is coming, we're two weeks into Winter already and in that short time we've had the first cold snap of the season, including a bit of snow, swiftly followed by the first mass toy throwing / winter's over period of the season too. What's to come next? Maybe a colder spell as we head into the Xmas period?

As always, please keep it to the models and keep it friendly in this thread. If you spot any issues, please report the post rather than responding to it. If you're wanting to chat more generally about this winter, or maybe have a ramp, please head off to the winter chat thread:

If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area.

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

[SnoFlakeEar]

As a complete newbie to reading the charts, and after the last cold spell which didnt seem to proceed as expected?

What are the pitfalls we are looking for this time, trends beginning to appear in posters comments and i presume its getting all the synoptics inside 144hrs or less ?

Thanks

[Vikos]

 

Will it split?!

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Ao majorly negative! Good signs going forwards towards Christmas and new year.

[Radiating Dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Vikos said:

 

Will it split?!

To the more knowledgeable, is this a 3 wave pattern? 

[BlueHedgehog074]

13 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

To the more knowledgeable, is this a 3 wave pattern? 

Admittedly not the most knowledgeable of people, but looks like the start of a 3 wave pattern with the Pacific, Western UK and Eastern Russian ridges attempting to pinch the Vortex from the 3 sides.

[phil nw.]

Positive signs for coldies that Christmas looks to be more seasonal this year.The latest 500 hPa mean charts approaching Christmas along with ens.certainly look promising.

 

 

Continuing the trend from the last couple of days of mid-Atlantic ridging and colder polar flow from the nw or n,depending on the placement of the surface features which will be ascertained nearer the time.

Following the ens over recent days they seem to be extending the colder trend beyond Christmas a little further out .

Like others i have been monitoring the strat and after the minor wave 2 warmings recently we now see further reasonably significant wave 1 warming being forecast consistently starting over the next 10/15 days and this one looks as if it could displace the spv from the pole.It may not favour us immediately but it's another blow to the vortex.

The NH pattern looks much better now compared to a few days ago with that persistent Arctic high  and the re-appearance of the wavy jet pattern.We can see the deep purples(the vortex core)being shredded and held away from the Atlantic side.

I think there's enough going on to be hopeful that this Winter will hold more surprises.

Edited December 14, 2020 by phil nw.

[Chesil View]

Posted this in the previous thread but it still stands. Coldies and snowies its is your duty  and your god given right to check out the 00zgfs extended control run 384-840.   it is uttely outrageous and a thing of beauty for which the term Cobra run is insufficient.

just a taster below 

[Allseasons-Si]

RE:- the EPS clusters i think it was @Daniel* that posted them

these are three different timestamps

Dec 25th,27th and 29th...

firstly the Xmas day one shows the initial ridge in the Atlantic with a NW/N flow,the second one shows a renewed trough/low coming down from the NW with heights backing a tad west and maybe linking up with the Ural block to the N/NE with cut off low to our south on the third chart

this is all looking good in the extended and if we can get that cut off low to the SE then more fun and games could evolve with a possible NE/E flow developing.

goes to eye up the 12z

C U in a bit

 

[Griff]

Last night when I said the latest GFS was looking more amplified it went off the rails, therefore . No comment on the 12z as it will go pear shape again. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

59 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Posted this in the previous thread but it still stands. Coldies and snowies its is your duty  and your god given right to check out the 00zgfs extended control run 384-840.   it is uttely outrageous and a thing of beauty for which the term Cobra run is insufficient.

just a taster below 

Filth!  Lets hope the 12z runs keep our seasonal Christmas hopes alive! 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Last night when I said the latest GFS was looking more amplified it went off the rails, therefore . No comment on the 12z as it will go pear shape again. 

Agreed and thank you

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Last night when I said the latest GFS was looking more amplified it went off the rails, therefore . No comment on the 12z as it will go pear shape again. 

Because it hasn't gone out that far yet to get excited about

[Downburst]

The midnight ECM is certainly interesting with -4 to -8 850's drawing down on December 24th, in from the North West. This is 10 days out, but better it showing than not showing. 

[Griff]

Latest 144 gfs vs the rest at the same time frame on their most recent runs.. 

Possibly copying the ukmo's homework?

Edited December 14, 2020 by Griff

[Skullzrulerz]

No icon today?

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

No icon today?

Mustn't be Iconic?

[IDO]

The 12z GFS op back to the 0z outcome with the low on the jet at d7:

12z>  06z> 

It merges with the trough and no Azores cut-off low on this run; so will be different again! We will get a warm sector delaying the cold on this run.

[Drifter]

Out to t198 the GFS appears to have the consistency of a baby’s nappy. 

It could still turn out ok - high pressure appears to be more prevalent to the north east on the 12z. 

[TSNWK]

Initially I felt it was flatter but from around 168 I’m seeing much better heights to our north and artic high applying a little pressure.

is that little low just over Ireland gonna be our trigger  ?

 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

The 12z GFS op back to the 0z outcome with the low on the jet at d7:

12z>  06z> 

It merges with the trough and no Azores cut-off low on this run; so will be different again! We will get a warm sector delaying the cold on this run.

Yes more of a slow burner but clearly an option  

Amplification towards Greenland around 216 might still kick things off...

Edited December 14, 2020 by Griff

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes more of a slow burner but clearly an option  

Amplification towards Greenland around 216 might still kick things off...

Have I missed the recent runs showing something developing before this time frame?

[Ali1977]

The GFS is still looking good for a festive Northerly  

[Allseasons-Si]

The models are struggling with the ESB low with regards to phasing with the upper/parent low at 144 and until this is sorted out,then anything past this point fruitless,if this low doesn't phase with the parent low then better heights in the Atlantic would build 

the Icon doesn't phase this low whereas the UKMO and gfs does hence a flatter pattern,UKMO the middle ground here.

or am i talking a load of cobswollacks ,maybe we want it to phase

Edited December 14, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Out to t198 the GFS appears to have the consistency of a baby’s nappy. 

It could still turn out ok - high pressure appears to be more prevalent to the north east on the 12z. 

That low won't be decided on, till around three day's out or may be, even less time. Little micro changes, make big changes to how the pattern will look. Get ready for Shannon to reappear.