Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Tim Bland]

Look north...incoming!!

[saintkip]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Indeed, if it get to day 6 I'll get excited. 

At the moment it's just the 50th brilliant day 10 chart we've had since the start of December

It’s been snowing at sea level in the north east of England this morning, it’s pretty obvious parts of low lying England will get snow in the next week.

[V for Very Cold]

Is this rinse and repeat...... on a cold setting? 

[Decemberof2010]

This is going to end up Stonking

However I may or may not had too much coffee

[That ECM]

Let’s hope the weather gets the memo. Stunning output, the stuff of a coldies dream. As I say JFF

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Indeed, if it get to day 6 I'll get excited. 

At the moment it's just the 50th brilliant day 10 chart we've had since the start of December

Yeah I think that far out is very much a watching brief for the moment, there isn't huge deep cold pool to tap into so we are going to need a fairly decent connection to get the proper cold air down.

A LP over the top ironically may not be the worst thing around 240hrs providing we can get another pulse northwards of the ridge afterwards, as that may help to introduce colder air onto our section of the arctic which will help enhance any northerly.

A long way off though and more than decent chance of snowfall on the 28-29th for some, perhaps considerable amounts locally.

[Northern Sky]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Look north...incoming!!

Yes it's a synoptically beautiful evolution watching that high pivot round to allow the cold air to flood south. We can but dream!

[ALL ABOARD]

Please santa I've been a really good boy this year. 

Please give me a blizzard for all  

On a more serious note, I've lost count of the amount of charts that are just showing a rinse and repeat cold pattern. 

I think we had one GFS that went rogue?

[Howie]

Look how far south the jet stream is . Also I apologise for my gloomy post just then, jumped to a conclusion and definitely should've known better 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The morning of the 4th Dec saw snowfall at low levels in Kent and East Anglia with slightly less cold T850s than being progged on Monday 28th, when GFS shows snow across parts of the south. So it’s possible, if winds are light, The precipitation heavy,  thicknesses are low enough, wet bulb freezing level lowered by evap cooling in heavy precipitation.

Yep this is something I've been increasingly talking about over the last few days, I think the set-up is cold enough the real unknown to me is simply where the secondary low forms, etc. Could easily swing into the channel instead and totally miss us, equally could still develop further north than currently progged, etc.

However if the set-up comes off anything remotely like the 00z models suggests, then there will be a decent snow event for *some*.

[tight isobar]

Terrible synoptic .. you’ll av ta- live up a mountain to get snow off of these evos...  Honestly.. I’d rather carve bananas and sell em on a Mongolian outer market stall at times in ere.. for reference also.. the marble effect throughout.. are worthy.. and useful synoptic to both decipher- and gain...     GFS remains .... STEADFAST

Edited December 24, 2020 by tight isobar

[Anthony Burden]

GFS 06z colder and colder is the word,be ready for a long winter.

[Stu_London]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

It's the type of set-up that can catch people out make monkeys out of weather forecasters and local authorities

Early January 1994, remember this well. A band of preciptation gave snowfalls to the west and north of London. Caught the forecasters out 

 

 

Remember this one quite well. I lived in Enfield at the time. Lots of snow falling out of the sky but not much settled. Ruislip, around 10 miles away, and with a tiny bit more elevation, got pasted with about 5 inches and there was complete carnage on the Central Line - many colleagues had real difficulties getting home from work. Think we will see similar in next few days given the marginality, local prone areas hitting the jackpot, with other areas quite near missing out.

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Look north...incoming!!

Medic.....Quickly

[Tim Bland]

Ahh this must be the early Jan High Pressure that the Met are banging on about

[Dunstable Snow]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Promised by whom? That's just not true.

The North of GB with height has always shown as the most likely for snow.

For the rest of us. Very little chance in the next 10 days.

An interesting take on things but your view is as valid as anyone's. I live about 30 miles north west of London and 500ft up in the Chiltern Hills. My assessment of the modelling is such that I will be very surprised if I don't see lying snow outside my front door on a number of days between Christmas and New Year - I will post some pics if it arrives ! 

This forum has been a great read over the last few weeks. Well done to everyone who has contributed. Have a great Christmas and New Year and If you desire snow during this period I hope you get plenty !

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Terrible synoptic .. you’ll av ta- live up a mountain to get snow off of these evos...  Honestly.. I’d rather carve bananas and sell em on a Mongolian outer market stall at times in ere.. for reference also.. the marble effect throughout.. are worthy.. and useful synoptic to both decipher- and gain...     GFS remains .... STEADFAST

Merry Christmas Tight Isobar and yeah ridiculous posts in here when we have been starved of anything in the reliable for years and now things coukdnt be more promising!!! 

[Froze were the Days]

Interestingly enough the oldest uppers on that GFS 306z is in the east (you wouldn't have thought so looking at that) is that a result of continued cold synoptics and a cooling continent?

Edited December 24, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[syed2878]

23 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is NOT representative of most ensemble members. I looked at all 51 members for T240 and only 12 could remotely be described as high pressure dominated. If there is a main cluster this morning, it would have a trough close to the S of the UK with high pressure centred to the N and NW. When there is one cluster, my belief is they just pick any ensemble out for these charts.

 A genuine question to you MWB if that is the case with the ECMY then the Met ignoring that output with all the data they have access to surely they would not discount what we are seeing on current modelling

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Terrible synoptic .. you’ll av ta- live up a mountain to get snow off of these evos...  Honestly.. I’d rather carve bananas and sell em on a Mongolian outer market stall at times in ere.. for reference also.. the marble effect throughout.. are worthy.. and useful synoptic to both decipher- and gain...     GFS remains .... STEADFAST

Norfolk and the South East, famed for their mountains

[Battleground Snow]

With a mean like this in the New year, you'd be very surprised for high pressure to be over the UK, the clusters have been questioned by a few on twitter at times this year. Eg Matt Hugo, however it is still a way out so we will see how it pans out.

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

 A genuine question to you MWB if that is the case with the ECMY then the Met ignoring that output with all the data they have access to surely they would not discount what we are seeing on current modelling

My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them cos lets be honest a lot of the times in the past models will be forecasting cold but mild average bore fest wins out!they are very crafty when it comes to situation like this!!looks for last minite wording/changes to their forecasts!!just my opinion!!

[danm]

11 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Remember this one quite well. I lived in Enfield at the time. Lots of snow falling out of the sky but not much settled. Ruislip, around 10 miles away, and with a tiny bit more elevation, got pasted with about 5 inches and there was complete carnage on the Central Line - many colleagues had real difficulties getting home from work. Think we will see similar in next few days given the marginality, local prone areas hitting the jackpot, with other areas quite near missing out.

I think I remember this. Was living back at home in Ilford in those days, east London and my mums sister was in elstree in NW London/south Herts. They had a lot of snow and we had nothing. 

[Anti-Mild]

I wish I could be comfortable with dismissing the MetO's forecasted HP for January, but it wouldn't be the first time they stuck to their guns and came out looking like forecasting wizards.

[mushymanrob]

Erm ...... are the anomalies heading this way?