Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[sheikhy]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

Erm ...... are the anomalies heading this way?



 

Looks like it mate❄

[Sky Full]

21 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

This is going to end up Stonking

However I may or may not had too much coffee

Potentially historic chart, that.   If we get close to that in early January the weather will be making headlines.  One thing we can’t complain about this winter is a lack of eye-candy.....

[loafer]

4 minutes ago, Anti-Mild said:

I wish I could be comfortable with dismissing the MetO's forecasted HP for January, but it wouldn't be the first time they stuck to their guns and came out looking like forecasting wizards.

Well, it's either low or high, so they'll be right some of the time by the law of averages...!

[syed2878]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them cos lets be honest a lot of the times in the past models will be forecasting cold but mild average bore fest wins out!they are very crafty when it comes to situation like this!!looks for last minite wording/changes to their forecasts!!just my opinion!!

 I agree with that however with the continuity from model like the GFS and to an extent ECMW if they cannot discount it and me I would’ve thought put something in in the extended text forecast just out of interest they have issued yellow ice warning for some areas including the West Midlands

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Looks like it mate❄

Doesn't look like that to me. The height anomaly is more Atlantic than Greenland, indicating a leakage of less cold air into the mixer and keeping things very marginal for snow.

[Methuselah]

What a strange run... it starts with a bit of a dog's breakfast and end with a bit of a dog's breakfast: the cold air looks like it's being held in a half-Nelson... With a lot of it [the cold air] staying close to Blighty, for the foreseeable?

    

Which, after so many years of seeing the situation reversed, cannae be a bad thing!?

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can't argue,plenty of cold scenarios from the 0z ens,still awaiting for the 6z to update.. but the future still looks cold.

Right folks,it's been a blast. This year will live long in the memories for as the one that brought so much Heartache,anger and despair. Im aware many of you will have to go without seeing family this year,and some will be very lonely. A very important time to give some of those close family and friends a quick call,or a zoom,just to let them know your thinking about them. I tell you what this forum is like one big family,and I would imagine it brings much joy to those who have not much escape,and feel like they have genuine friends who they can be socially active with,and perhaps chat in private. Im aware some great posters have gone missing these past couple of years,who were plagued with ill health,and it makes you gear the worse...hey,if you're still with us,I wish you blessings and a speedy recovery.

So basically a big thanks to all on here,and I mean all,even those of you who don't like my style of posting...(bound to be a few of those) you have brought me much joy these past 12 months,and with somebody who as suffered anxiety issues for years....my head would have fallen off without this place. So to all the Forum team,and every single member,even the lurkers.. This is the time of the year to reach out to our loved ones,with Greetings and warm wishes. This Xmas I think of you all,and I'm wishing you a fantastic New Year,were hopefully those of you who are ill....whether it be physically or Mentally...you make the quickest and best of recovery. And may all of your dreams and goals come true...catch you all towards the end of the month.

Ps...As the days grow longer,the the cold grows stronger...hopefully.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

35 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Look north...incoming!!

seriously though,...great output this morning

LOOK at that hp anomaly S Greenland.

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Doesn't look like that to me. The height anomaly is more Atlantic than Greenland, indicating a leakage of less cold air into the mixer and keeping things very marginal for snow.

Are you the Irish Terrier? 

A little more optism would not go a miss. I know it is good to not get carried away, but we are not looking at a 2015 or 1989 nightmare scenario here.

The models and cold spells in particular usually end up being a bit of a compromise, but at least we are not looking at dusting the BBQ off.

[booferking]

Gfs parallel running 4 times a day now on meteociel.

[fromey]

Wow!

[snowblind]

18 minutes ago, Anti-Mild said:

I wish I could be comfortable with dismissing the MetO's forecasted HP for January, but it wouldn't be the first time they stuck to their guns and came out looking like forecasting wizards.

Will be interesting to see if their outlook changes in the next few days or the models start coming around to their way of thinking

[Battleground Snow]

Control has the high in almost the perfect place, wish those Iberia heights would go away though, 

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Promised by whom? That's just not true.

The North of GB with height has always shown as the most likely for snow.

For the rest of us. Very little chance in the next 10 days.

Aside perhaps from this morning....15m asl and I watched flakes fall only an hour ago....

Edited December 24, 2020 by Catacol

[Eagle Eye]

An Arctic Northernly within day 8 and possibility. Zonal Jet tracking South More Than Normal. 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs parallel running 4 times a day now on meteociel.

Interestingly the 06z gfs/p went for a strat split as early as 276

WOW what a beauty of a mean at day ten from the gefs 06z.

 

[johnholmes]

36 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

My thoughts on this are that met 9 times out of 10 will go for the default outcome which is the milder weather or high pressure over the uk scenario!!its just easier for them cos lets be honest a lot of the times in the past models will be forecasting cold but mild average bore fest wins out!they are very crafty when it comes to situation like this!!looks for last minite wording/changes to their forecasts!!just my opinion!!

I'll respond to this post in the UK Met thread, not here

[Battleground Snow]

Best chart of the winter for me so far

 

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Goes to show you shouldn't count out the met office

Perhaps except when the the evidence presented doesn’t originate from the MetO and is a single cluster scenario at over a week in advance drawn from 51 members. Not even worth a cursory glance. 

[Eagle Eye]

For those who remember 2010 THIS is almost a Carbon Copy of that Jet Stream. Within a Few Days we can expect Snow. 

Greenland high blocking allowing for a Path to a long lasting Low. 

To the Anomoly I just say Wow. 

On the 28th we can also expect Snow  the Model is Bullish about the Snow chance. 

And we still have a good bit of Weather to Come although non split for the moment. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Sheldon Cooper

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Doesn't look like that to me. The height anomaly is more Atlantic than Greenland, indicating a leakage of less cold air into the mixer and keeping things very marginal for snow.

I said is this the way the anomalies are heading, because like the chart @Allseasons-si has posted, there are predictions of strengthening northern blocking which DO bear a strong resemblence to the charts i posted from 1947 and 1963. It also adds weight to what @Scott Ingham has said regarding the potential such developments may bring

The point being that whilst the NOAA 8-14 mean itself isnt a direct match, its the way IMHO its heading as they are building heights to our north and dropping pressure to the South of the UK.

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by mushymanrob
typo

[steveinsussex]

8 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

For those who remember 2010 THIS is almost a Carbon Copy of that Jet Stream. Within a Few Days we can expect Snow. 

Greenland high blocking allowing for a Path to a long lasting Low. 

To the Anomoly I just say Wow. 

Today we can also expect Snow so even though it may not seem like it keep your cameras ready as the Model is Bullish about the Snow chance. 

And we still have a good bit of Weather to Come although non split for the moment. 

That snow chart is for the 28th not today 

[Eagle Eye]

5 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

That snow chart is for the 28th not today 

It's hard to see, I downloaded the one for Today but it didn't work, I'll change the Post the Trouble is I'm doing this one my Phone. 

[bluearmy]

@Allseasons-si and @Sheldon Cooper  be careful with strat temp charts 

the temp charts in the strat are not the same as the height charts which will show if there is a split or not. 

take the 06z gfs    - I have ringed the two vortices on the wind flow chart.  They don’t match the temps ! 

     

[Updated_Weather]

Currently in Braintree Essex, and we have some flakes!