Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, danthetan said:

I think so, if you live wales or SW England at elevation looking really good for snow . SW midlands good chance at low level. 

Yep, BS34 is the potential sweet spot

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep, BS34 is the potential sweet spot

I think come the day youll be too far west. I think youll want to be down the spine of the country come monday based on trends in the last 24 hours but who knows the amount it has changed! Fingers crossed for you it is further west!

[kumquat]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep, BS34 is the potential sweet spot

We do what we want in Briz, whether the snow lays or not 

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, kumquat said:

We do what we want in Briz, whether the snow lays or not 

Hope you are well K, in the S Glos covid hotspot

[kumquat]

Still looking for a 2009 repeat. A Wash streamer or a Thames streamer. Country was entrenched in cold air right up to Bristol. Then low thickness cold air aloft coming in from the West up the Severn. Even Fergie was posting in those days. Got a proper good dumping from marginal 850s. Those are days to dream about. Even talking about it I realise that this is not that setup. But looking forwards into Jan, let's hope so.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS are very good well into la la land

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Band passes gives 2-3cm before pivotting somewhere in the Midlands >10cm possible. Very marginal south of M4.

Where the pivot occurrs more prolonged snowfall is possible well into Monday and potentially further south. 2km NMM now in out to +T36.

Just realised drunk i didnt look at the 18z euro4 on meteociel and thats what confuded me hahaua! Its actually a decent run for south yorkshire its further north and the pivot happens where i am!!! 

*Note to self dont watch model runs drunk!

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Just realised drunk i didnt look at the 18z euro4 on meteociel and thats what confuded me hahaua! Its actually a decent run for south yorkshire its further north and the pivot happens where i am!!! 

*Note to self dont watch model runs drunk!

At the moment from a statistical perspective the pivot is slightly more likely to happen to your south.

However a complex of ppn is being indicated north east of the pivot centre which I think will more likely affect you.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[CSC]

Hello everyone, we have seen historically time and time again, in similar situations these systems shift 40 Miles south, and  I think tomorrow some could be in for a surprise. South of the M4, even onto the coast in Sussex, I would not be surprised if some see snow. 
 

With the blocking now fully in force, the ingredients are there for something spectacular over the next few weeks. We will see the jet ‘have another go’ as it shifts from temporary westerlies back to colder air. This is the best position we have been in for a long long time, and I dare I say it, a 2009 repeat is not unlikely, oh do I hope that happens again.

[A Frayed Knot]

I thought this was  Model Disscusion not will it Snow in my back garden. 

Nice to see is in the sweetest spot. SORRY, You are going to get Slush deposits.. Biased in here but us Welsh understand you are jealous. 

[danthetan]

4 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

I thought this was  Model Disscusion not will it Snow in my back garden. 

Nice to see is in the sweetest spot. SORRY, You are going to get Slush deposits.. Biased in here but us Welsh understand you are jealous. 

Abergavenny maybe not on the old severn bridge I'm afraid. 

[Scott Ingham]

47 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

I thought this was  Model Disscusion not will it Snow in my back garden. 

Nice to see is in the sweetest spot. SORRY, You are going to get Slush deposits.. Biased in here but us Welsh understand you are jealous. 

Youll be too far west based on current models the trend is to take this further East but i hope you get the snow you want!

I am only joking btw... haha!

The latest icon barely takes the snow into the west coast never mind England!

Massive shift west

Edited December 27, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Scott Ingham]

The oz icon is truly awful both in the short term and medium with high pressure over the UK by as soon as 150 hours.

Absolutely huge change.

We dont want other morning models to follow!

[Scott Ingham]

The GFS disagrees and pushes the low much further east.

This absolutely will come down to a nowcast 

Unbelievable.

Lets hope its not as flat as the icon though as that was the metoffice uk high from 5 days ago mentioned!

[tight isobar]

12 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The GFS disagrees and pushes the low much further east.

This absolutely will come down to a nowcast 

Unbelievable.

Lets hope its not as flat as the icon though as that was the metoffice uk high from 5 days ago mentioned!

Gfs rock solid with the Monday feature.. and has stuck to its guns with the eastern/southern stamp..

Edited December 27, 2020 by tight isobar

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs rock solid with the Monday feature.. and has stuck to its guns with the eastern/southern stamp..

The ikon is a worry though we have a UK high at 150 hours

[Scott Ingham]

One thing noticeable on the GFS is the height rises and WAA going back up in the Russian High.

It yet again strengthens nearer to time

[Kasim Awan]

43 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The oz icon is truly awful both in the short term and medium with high pressure over the UK by as soon as 150 hours.

Absolutely huge change.

We dont want other morning models to follow!

The Azores high seems to have been expanding over recent decades. Seems to always scupper opportunity somewhat. At least we have an interesting nowcast.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

The Azores high seems to have been expanding over recent decades. Seems to always scupper opportunity somewhat. At least we have an interesting nowcast.

Yeah i agree.

Lets see what route the GFS takes. The Russian high appears a lot more robust than expected! 

[Scott Ingham]

There appears to be a topple of the high compared to other runs on the UKMO as well at 144 hours

We may just get away with a wedge and an undercut of the wedge similar to the GFS but it looks very touch and go

Edited December 27, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Scott Ingham]

Mild air is over the UK at 198 and the cold spell done in 6 days hahaha!

Pretty sure the GFS is not modelling that split energy correctly however!

[Mucka]

Bad day at the office for GFS

And that's all I have to say about that.

Clearly a lot of uncertainty 5 days+ but I very much doubt this will be a trend setter.

You can't say bin it, but... 

"bin it"

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mucka

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Mucka said:

Bad ay at the office for GFS

And that's all I have to say about that.

Clearly a lot of uncertainty 5 days+ but I very much doubt this will be a trend setter.

You can't say bin it, but... 

"bin it"

Ikon had high pressure over the UK at this point and the UKMO looked more of a toppler so a bad morning but no need to panic

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Mucka said:

Bad ay at the office for GFS

And that's all I have to say about that.

Clearly a lot of uncertainty 5 days+ but I very much doubt this will be a trend setter.

You can't say bin it, but... 

"bin it"

Definitely one for the fire. Little support for a flat zonal pattern. Icon is much more realistic with HP over the UK whilst maintaining a fairly amplified pattern.

[tight isobar]

More of a wobble this morning.. than back track...   I think we knew to expect such synoptic via the alarming block formats of recent.   We’ll be back in business synoptically perhaps as early as this evening!...  on we roll