Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[ScottSnow]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Mild air is over the UK at 198 and the cold spell done in 6 days hahaha!

Pretty sure the GFS is not modelling that split energy correctly however!

A lot of people on here were over optimistic about this ‘cool’ spell. The models were just not showing enough cold in our part of the world for this to be anything more than a few days of below average temps with some snow on the hills or temporarily in a few lucky lowland spots.

The talk on here of another Jan 10, Dec 10 etc was incredulous.

I have been on this forum for 17 years and I love cold and snow but people were setting themselves up for a fall. Here’s hoping we get some proper winter weather soon.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Definitely one for the fire. Little support for a flat zonal pattern. Icon is much more realistic with HP over the UK whilst maintaining a fairly amplified pattern.

Icon is not a model I would trust, but yeah that is more realistic, but it is still a poorish run IMO, think we can do much better.

 

 

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, Snow White said:

A lot of people on here were over optimistic about this ‘cool’ spell. The models were just not showing enough cold in our part of the world for this to be anything more than a few days of below average temps with some snow on the hills or temporarily in a few lucky lowland spots.

The talk on here of another Jan 10, Dec 10 etc was incredulous.

I have been on this forum for 17 years and I love cold and snow but people were setting themselves up for a fall. Here’s hoping we get some proper winter weather soon.

You do realise these runs are probably unlikely to verify like that due to lack of ensemble and mean support?

You get it in all the cold spells a morning or evening of wobble.

We had 2 in march 18 before the beast.

Its far too soon to say a long cold spell is over due to one gfs run?

Very very big over reaction.

We need to look at it scientifically.

If the met forecast after each individual run theyd look schizophrenic!

Also monday is unlikely to be just to a few lucky lowland spots.

Chances are a fair chunk of the UK will wake up to a few centimetres tuesday morning

Chill Snow White

Edited December 27, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Icon is not a model I would trust, but yeah that is more realistic, but it is still a poorish run IMO, think we can do much better.

 

 

It is amplified but ultimately it follows the possible scenario of increasing low pressure to our nw shunting the high south a little

This just a temporary phase in a recurring amplification sequence, more to come around 5/01 onwards but we cant expect the NWP to grasp that yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Over the past few days we've been seeing hints that the pattern is flattening. GFS 0z should not come as a shock. Plus, remember, the ensembles will usually lag behind the ops. 

We may not go as progressive as the GFS 0z but perhaps the UKMO were on to something after all with their UK HP scenario.

It may be that we need this SSW ASAP now

[Mucka]

9 minutes ago, Snow White said:

A lot of people on here were over optimistic about this ‘cool’ spell. The models were just not showing enough cold in our part of the world for this to be anything more than a few days of below average temps with some snow on the hills or temporarily in a few lucky lowland spots.

The talk on here of another Jan 10, Dec 10 etc was incredulous.

I have been on this forum for 17 years and I love cold and snow but people were setting themselves up for a fall. Here’s hoping we get some proper winter weather soon.

 

I wouldn't be placing any faith in this GFS Op, it will probably look ridiculous this time tomorrow unless the ensembles have flipped.

There is no way that low would not disrupt SE even if we got to 144 as GFS models and that in itself is a long shot!

I think people know this wasn't going to be a deep cold Winter wonderland spell like 2010 but hope to see some snow and that is still very much in the offing.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mucka

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Over the past few days we've been seeing hints that the pattern is flattening. GFS 0z should not come as a shock. Plus, remember, the ensembles will usually lag behind the ops. 

We may not go as progressive as the GFS 0z but perhaps the UKMO were on to something after all with their UK HP scenario.

It may be that we need this SSW ASAP now

It may be mate but id hang fire for the ensembles and for runs tonight and tomorrow morning before making that call.

The NOAA, GFS and ECM charts would render this outcome this morning a very low chance of verifying.

Its an over reaction to a signal for me. Ive seen it time and again. 

I would suggest wedges and undercutting low pressure reinforcing building heights once again behind.

Im genuinely not worried one bit

[ScottSnow]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

You do realise these runs are probably unlikely to verify like that due to lack of ensemble and mean support?

You get it in all the cold spells a morning or evening of wobble.

We had 2 in march 18 before the beast.

Its far too soon to say a long cold spell is over due to one gfs run?

Very very big over reaction.

We need to look at it scientifically.

If the met forecast after each individual run theyd look schizophrenic!

But I am not looking at it over one run. Read what I have said. I have said the models have NEVER shown anything that would be on par with a Jan or Dec 10 due to know cold pooling over Europe or Scandinavia.

The models have never shown anything other than a week of ‘cool’ temps. All the cold weather is in Asia at the moment and until that (if) transfers west then we are going to be up against it.

I have been model watching since you were in nappies and have been lead up the garden path too many times. This time I did not see anything that warranted such excitement. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

It may be mate but id hang fire for the ensembles and for runs tonight and tomorrow morning before making that call.

The NOAA, GFS and ECM charts would render this outcome this morning a very low chance of verifying.

Its an over reaction to a signal for me. Ive seen it time and again. 

I would suggest wedges and undercutting low pressure reinforcing building heights once again behind.

Im genuinely not worried one bit

I'm concerned because even on the better runs you can see the TPV organising itself...albeit more across the other side of the hemisphere. Now, this could just be a period of VI before the SSW. However this makes it even more important the SSW happens because I suspect we are about to see coupling of the SPV and TPV

[Kasim Awan]

GEM is slightly higher with the ridge placement and like the ICON keeps good amounts of amplification. Likely that a good few gfs members will sway this way too. 

Model volatility is a sign of an unusual pattern. Evidence here that the GFS can overcook the Atlantic due to poor jet partitioning. Jan 2013 it often went too zonal..

[Mucka]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Over the past few days we've been seeing hints that the pattern is flattening. GFS 0z should not come as a shock. Plus, remember, the ensembles will usually lag behind the ops. 

We may not go as progressive as the GFS 0z but perhaps the UKMO were on to something after all with their UK HP scenario.

It may be that we need this SSW ASAP now

 

I'm surprised you are going for it Crew.

Yes the pattern was always going to flatten a little once we knew the "leakage" SW tip of Greenland was an issue but this run has found the only way in a hundred the low doesn't disrupt and the pattern reamplify but instead stalls and fills in the Atlantic before barrelling through.

I'm not having any of it mate.

My guess, filthy mild outlier by the 5th (850's) 

EDIT

Haha just looked at the Control, similar.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mucka

[Kasim Awan]

I have to back Mucka / Scott with this one..

It's a continued roller coaster however remaining objective about the significance of output in recent days bar the insignificant gfs anomaly is vital. This I feel gives an improved judgement of where the evolution possibilities stand.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Snow White said:

But I am not looking at it over one run. Read what I have said. I have said the models have NEVER shown anything that would be on par with a Jan or Dec 10 due to know cold pooling over Europe or Scandinavia.

The models have never shown anything other than a week of ‘cool’ temps. All the cold weather is in Asia at the moment and until that (if) transfers west then we are going to be up against it.

I have been model watching since you were in nappies and have been lead up the garden path too many times. This time I did not see anything that warranted such excitement. 

If youve beem watching it simce i was in nappies youd have been watching it since i was nearly 40 years old and ive got a degree in meteorology so i do have a fait bit of experience myself.

No one said 2010 all that was said was that we would have below average temperatures for a period of time rivalling 2010.

This has now been backed by the met office themseves who have said we would have below average temperatures until february at the very earliest.

If that is your opinion fair play but its not mine and we will just have to see what transpires.

But i strongly disagree with that gfs run.

It happens all the time we get one had run and people have a panic attack

[ScottSnow]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

I wouldn't be placing any faith in this GFS Op, it will probably look ridiculous this time tomorrow unless the ensembles have flipped.

There is no way that low would not disrupt SE even if we got to 144 as GFS models and that in itself is a long shot!

I think people know this wasn't going to be a deep cold Winter wonderland spell like 2010 but hope to see some snow and that is still very much in the offing.

I understand the nuances of the ensembles etc but there have been lots of people mentioning that this spell will be in the top 10 ever in the UK on this forum. The models were never showing this.

Until we see that Russian High disappear and a westward shift of the cold air over Siberia then we are going to be in a battle to get any meaningful cold and snow over the UK.

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

If youve beem watching it simce i was in nappies youd have been watching it since i was nearly 40 years old and ive got a degree in meteorology so i do have a fait bit of experience myself.

No one said 2010 all that was said was that we would have below average temperatures for a period of time rivalling 2010.

This has now been backed by the met office themseves who have said we would have below average temperatures until february at the very earliest.

If that is your opinion fair play but its not mine and we will just have to see what transpires.

But i strongly disagree with that gfs run.

It happens all the time we get one had run and people have a panic attack

GFS P & GEM

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm concerned because even on the better runs you can see the TPV organising itself...albeit more across the other side of the hemisphere. Now, this could just be a period of VI before the SSW. However this makes it even more important the SSW happens because I suspect we are about to see coupling of the SPV and TPV

Nothing on the NAM charts suggests any coupling. In fact its one of the most extreme easterly NAM charts ive ever seen. I honestly dont think well he in milder than -5 air in a weeks time.

A wedge will build between iceland and Scandi and when the EAMT kicks in on the 31st well see another strongly amplified northern hemisphere by the 5th.

Its onoy some mild waning from the last surge in AAM that occured on the 21st of December

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

GFS P & GEM

Exactly. 

Ive just said the same in reply to Crewe wedge between iceland and Scandi.

The over reactions are crazyyyyyyy 

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Snow White said:

I understand the nuances of the ensembles etc but there have been lots of people mentioning that this spell will be in the top 10 ever in the UK on this forum. The models were never showing this.

Until we see that Russian High disappear and a westward shift of the cold air over Siberia then we are going to be in a battle to get any meaningful cold and snow over the UK.

If we see the UK below average for the whole of the UK it will comfortably be a top 10 winter and that is what is on the cards.

Met office also on board.

Read the met update thread for yourself

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I have to back Mucka / Scott with this one..

It's a continued roller coaster however remaining objective about the significance of output in recent days bar the insignificant gfs anomaly is vital. This I feel gives an improved judgement of where the evolution possibilities stand.

 

Haha I have been hare long enough to have gotten egg on my face before but thanks.

Obviously a blocked pattern can break down quickly around the UK but this is the Atlantic on steroids.

The Op and control have basically sped up the Atlantic 24h from yesterday by 120 with a much flatter upstream allowing lows to phase and that is ignoring the lack of disruption or how that ridge will play 120 through 168

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I have to back Mucka / Scott with this one..

It's a continued roller coaster however remaining objective about the significance of output in recent days bar the insignificant gfs anomaly is vital. This I feel gives an improved judgement of where the evolution possibilities stand.

Yes big picture.

Not one GFS run.

You cant forecast in that way models always throw in one bad run

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Nothing on the NAM charts suggests any coupling. In fact its one of the most extreme easterly NAM charts ive ever seen. I honestly dont think well he in milder than -5 air in a weeks time.

A wedge will build between iceland and Scandi and when the EAMT kicks in on the 31st well see another strongly amplified northern hemisphere by the 5th.

Its onoy some mild waning from the last surge in AAM that occured on the 21st of December

In 2016, the NAM charts didn't show coupling until it had actually happened. Remember the Metoffice saying about the weak TPV when it was clear that coupling had already happened. Once we lose the amplified pattern it happens really quite quickly.

Doesn't necessarily spell the end of the potential if there is a coupling...given the potential SSW

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

Haha I have been hare long enough to have gotten egg on my face before but thanks.

Obviously a blocked pattern can break down quickly around the UK but this is the Atlantic on steroids.

The Op and control have basically sped up the Atlantic 24h from yesterday by 120 with a much flatter upstream allowing lows to phase and that is ignoring the lack of disruption or how that ridge will play 120 through 168

Have you seem the GFS parallel the one upgraded?

Its a brilliant run

[Mucka]

10 minutes ago, Snow White said:

I understand the nuances of the ensembles etc but there have been lots of people mentioning that this spell will be in the top 10 ever in the UK on this forum. The models were never showing this.

Until we see that Russian High disappear and a westward shift of the cold air over Siberia then we are going to be in a battle to get any meaningful cold and snow over the UK.

 

Well if people were saying that then they were ramping but it could easily be a snowy period even if any falls maybe transient and the output was showing prolonged cold if not deep cold.

One GFS Op run does not a Zonal make.

[West is Best]

I've stayed away from posting on this thread because I haven't wanted to annoy people and it becomes a bit of a religion on here sometimes. However, this has never looked in the models more than a relatively slack 6 day cold snap. There will be some wintry precipitation even to low levels. But there's still nothing sustained showing up. There has been little or no robust upstream blocking and a notable absence of deep cold pooling over Europe: something I note as a feature of climate change. 

UKMO goes for a toppling high as did yesterday's ECM and now the GFS shows a return to zonality. So that's all big three models going against any sustained cold spell.

It's there in front of us in the model outputs whether we like it or not.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Have you seem the GFS parallel the one upgraded?

Its a brilliant run

I hadn't, but I have now, very different.