Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Shift west on some models but not all. Latest NMM still reasonable for many areas. 

Thats more like it!

[fromey]

@Scott Ingham Jesus man your like a one man band at the moment, get some sleep man!!

Appreciate your input though.

[Harsh Climate]

Thank goodness this mornings GFS was a mild outlier, always best to check where a run sits in it's esembles before making a knee jerk reaction. As others have alluded to, good ECM and UKMO, so everything still on track!

 

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, fromey said:

@Scott Ingham Jesus man your like a one man band at the moment, get some sleep man!!

Appreciate your input though.

Hahaha i intend on now! 

I am buzzing. Love winter ❤

[Kent Clipper]

Its  as you were. The cold spell is arriving here in the far SE as Storm Bella takes her stormy winds with her. A drop from 9.1c to 7.8c in the past hour...anyway back to the all important models.

KInks indicative of troughs are already starting to show up this morning that will no doubt keep the atmosphere electric in here for a good few days ! 

We will learn a lot about how the atmosphere behaves in the next few days. A slack, low pressure dominated self generated mid winter UK cold pool. Its the stuff of dreams. 

GFS 48 - discreet secondary feature in the flow

 

GFS 72 - Kink (trough) Close to the borders

 

GFS 96 hours - Some sort of trough feature clearing the south coast.

 

GFS 117 hours - Something in the channel and something edging into Scotland.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Kent Clipper

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

@Scott Ingham Jesus man your like a one man band at the moment, get some sleep man!!

Appreciate your input though.

 

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Hahaha i intend on now! 

I am buzzing. Love winter ❤

Yeah agreed, I suspect Scott's preferred weather service is the MDMA?

Exciting times of model watching... 

Short term bound to be a nowcast for many. 

Yesterday ICON had snow for my location Monday / Tuesday. Gone today. 

This morning GFS has totals of over 10cm.

I suspect I'll be raising a fist to the sky and demanding to know why it's raining at 1°c tomorrow. 

[tight isobar]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS needs to book into rehab ! It seems to have gone completely AWOL over the Christmas period.

If the GFS 06hrs run looks the same I’ll be shocked.

Just read this nick exactly my thoughts.. we “SHOULD “ see the 6z making much less of the energy dramas .. and have at least our partial block set bk in place throughout... .. ps.. don’t shoot the commentator!!!

[iceman1991]

Is it me or over the years I’ve been reading on here when cold spell shows up on models all models on board then gfs starts back tracking then ecm and rest follow or was it just a blip what do you guys reckon ?

[DanDorsetUK]

Well next Saturday shows an eastily feed on the met office app. That's good enough for me! Also anyone thinking the GFS run is correct need to hold of in there way of thinking for 48hrs or so. There is absolutely no way its going to be correct. There is going to be a major change across all models very soon for the better with a destroyed PV. Sit back n wait stay on the wine n beers, it's all going fine.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Rapodo

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, iceman1991 said:

Is it me or over the years I’ve been reading on here when cold spell shows up on models all models on board then gfs starts back tracking then ecm and rest follow or was it just a blip what do you guys reckon ?

She’s either out in her own or smelling something..(simple) the 6z will cast some lights

[Blessed Weather]

Banter posts in the Moans/Chat thread please or they will disappear. Thanks.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Blessed Weather

[mountain shadow]

34 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any fresh updates on tonights snow!!?

Unless you live up a high hill or up North, be wary of any modelled snow forecast.

I am at over 400 feet and the 'cold' air is here but getting rain.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Is it me or over the years I’ve been reading on here when cold spell shows up on models all models on board then gfs starts back tracking then ecm and rest follow or was it just a blip what do you guys reckon ?

Follow the GFSP for a few days and report back what you find

Edited December 27, 2020 by Griff

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS needs to book into rehab ! It seems to have gone completely AWOL over the Christmas period.

If the GFS 06hrs run looks the same I’ll be shocked.

Please can the GFS be very wrong ?!!

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Unless you live up a high hill or up North, be wary of any modelled snow forecast.

I am at over 400 feet and the 'cold' air is here but getting rain.

Its due to the strength of the wind. Thats why you had none forecast. It moderates the air.

Its the very low heights and slack airflow allowing tonights snow pal

[damianslaw]

Not closely examining the models from run to run at the moment, just looking at overall background state.. with this in mind, I'm focusing on the reliable timeframe at present (out to New Year's Day).

What do we have on offer? Our coldest end to the year since 2010, indeed models have a flavour of 2000, 2001, 2008 and 2009 about them at the moment.

A fairly slack low pressure set up, low heights gradually rising a little as we see greater influence from heights to our west. Airflow predominantly from a northerly quarter, more of NW in orientation.

Details at the surface very tricky, ideal scenario for sudden trough formation and convection, although as we move further into the coming week, both look less likely as we lose the low heights. Frost common and probably persisting for much of the day in many places from tomorrow onwards.

Temperature wise, below par, but nothing exceptional, maxima in the 0 to 5 degree range, coldest further north, minima at or just a bit below freezing, though Scottish highlands could see much lower minima over snow cover.

In the very near term, we have likely possibility of significant snowfall in some parts, as a feature moves in from the NW overnight, W/SW Scotland, NW England and Wales look like seeing the most snow. It reminds me alot of 27 December 2000. 

 

[Kent Clipper]

The big danger with any decent weather event (be it heatwaves or cold spells) is all too often we focus in fantasy land for breakdowns at 192 hours thus missing out what is starting to unfold under our very noses.

#liveinthemoment 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Kent Clipper

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, West is Best said:

I've stayed away from posting on this thread because I haven't wanted to annoy people and it becomes a bit of a religion on here sometimes. However, this has never looked in the models more than a relatively slack 6 day cold snap. There will be some wintry precipitation even to low levels. But there's still nothing sustained showing up. There has been little or no robust upstream blocking and a notable absence of deep cold pooling over Europe: something I note as a feature of climate change. 

UKMO goes for a toppling high as did yesterday's ECM and now the GFS shows a return to zonality. So that's all big three models going against any sustained cold spell.

It's there in front of us in the model outputs whether we like it or not.

  man now u done it ur not towing The party line. you are becoming rather rebellious lol I just hope the GFS has not picked up on a new signal anyway despite all that there is a lot of interesting weather to come in the next few days and I hope the GFS is having one of its moments.

[Tim Bland]

Go to bed Scott before you fall over! Can’t believe you have been up all night you nutter!  

GFS ensembles have had the possibility of something closer to average into Jan for a few days now, it was only a matter of time before it showed up on an op run. Good news is that the ensembles haven’t flipped, it’s still on the warm side, bad news is it’s very closely followed by the Control. Let’s hope it isn’t repeated! Yesterday / today’s below, 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Tim Bland

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its due to the strength of the wind. Thats why you had none forecast. It moderates the air.

Its the very low heights and slack airflow allowing tonights snow pal

Very little wind here pal.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Great if so damian, 20 years on to the day, but temps were colder then, colder setup

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Very little wind here pal.

There is over the irish sea where precipitation will have come from 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Here was ECM 0z from 17th December for today

GFS 0z 

GEM 0z

 

The reality

 

Thanks for this. In unusual set ups, FI is even earlier than usual, and looking beyond D6 comes with a health warning! Goodness, the UKMO is still 200 miles different to the others at T36!

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

There is over the irish sea where precipitation will have come from 

Scott, time for bed.

The air is coming from the North, the Irish sea is East of me.

[damianslaw]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Great if so damian, 20 years on to the day, but temps were colder then, colder setup

Yes, not quite the same, your right, we had much lower temperatures then, a much colder pool, lower ground temps, indeed Boxing Day was an ice day and the 27th. More the synoptics are very similiar and timings, a trough feature moved in from the NW later on 27th and then into NW England, N Wales and NW Midlands overnight. It gave 5 inches here. Now I'm not saying we will see anything near as much as then, and with temps much more marginal, it could be a much higher ground event, but the potential is there for something resembling 27 Dec 2000. Shoot me down if this time tomorrow we are staring at a wet grey scene rather than white!