Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Wetterfrosch]

Not often that you see such a huge area marked in red, indicating 50 to 100 mm of rain during today. It's been steady here since morning but not overly heavy most time. Wind getting up so some extent after an almost calm early start. Managed to get the dogs out during a brief let up just after 11 am. i wonder to what extent El Nino (and other global drivers) can be held responsible for such an unusual set up. One can only feel sorry for the poor souls up in Alba, that part is normally blessed with the protection by the Cairngorms from the wild westerlies, only to see disaster strike from the east. So, the blessing of the mountains turns into it's curse! 

[Snowyowl9]

September 1999 record wet 2 days has now been broken..

3.6inches of rain in 2 days now..Ok its october..but never seen so much water seeping from under the ground..

[snefnug]

Non stop all day.  Winds beginning to pick up again.  Ceiriog river full.  Thankfully it’s a fast flower but it will break its banks tonight.  The run off down hillside incredible.  Gulleys burst and main road out of valley full of surface water.  

[Marcus_surfer]

Luckily we have escaped most of the persistent rain here. That doesn't mean it's been dry though, heavy rain showers since midday, and the ground is very saturated 

[Wetterfrosch]

Fancy that! Doesn't the dark red patch very much align with where badly affected Chesterfield is located? From all the reports available I'm actually surprised that it doesn't show the 100 mm + bracket. I'm grateful to have had just a fairly mediocre rainy day here. No doubt our turn will come before too long!

 

 

 

[Sky Full]

After a generally wet day yesterday, this morning has started out dry and the sky is brightening gradually with the chance of a little sunshine perhaps, before the clouds return later.  It has also been unusually calm, due to the circulation of the low pressure system being positioned favourably for this part of the world.  It appeared to me that all the strongest winds were circulating around a centre point very close to Pembrokeshire for most of the last two days, so we were effectively in the ‘eye of the storm’, so to speak.

[Wetterfrosch]

What a difference a day (or even two!) makes! Us northerners are extremely lucky today to be bathed in very welcome sunshine with barely a cloud in the sky. Pretty chilly start though with about 5 C but in the absence of wind it now feels really pleasant. River levels have a good chance to go down as well before the return of the next batch of rain, especially so towards next weekend.

 

This is for  Friday:

Have a good Sunday all!!

[Sky Full]

The band of heavy rain (for which a yellow warning has been issued today) has reached us and is moving through as I write.  Otherwise, today has been a really usable day with a lot of sunshine even if it was watery at times!  The breeze was refreshing and not a nuisance and on a scale of 1 to 10, for late October, I give it an 8!  

(Not a very scientific analysis but we don’t always need charts to express our feelings about the weather! )

[Sky Full]

For those of you who are in the firing line for this band of rain I recommend that you make sure your windows are all shut tonight!  The rain is now torrential and has now been falling like this for an hour or so, following an hour of less heavy stuff.  The yellow warning is perfectly justified especially as it looks like we’ve got another hour to go before it passes through.  I don’t have a rain gauge but I can’t believe we’ve had less than a couple of centimetres in the last hour.  Must be horrible to be driving in it.  

[Crepuscular Ray]

A pretty decent day here, too, apart from the brief torrential downpour as I walked from the surgery to the car park after having my flu and covid jabs. 

1 minute ago, Sky Full said:

For those of you who are in the firing line for this band of rain I recommend that you make sure your windows are all shut tonight!  The rain is now torrential and has now been falling like this for an hour or so, following an hour of less heavy stuff.  The yellow warning is perfectly justified especially as it looks like we’ve got another hour to go before it passes through.  I don’t have a rain gauge but I can’t believe we’ve had less than a couple of centimetres in the last hour.  Must be horrible to be driving in it.  

Thanks for the warning! It’s just about to hit here.

[Sky Full]

On the radar, it looks like two separate squall lines squeezed into a band about twenty miles apart and the rain falling from the area between is like being in the centre of a heavy thunderstorm.  I can hear it falling onto the roof, the car and the ground outside and it’s quite something to listen to it….very noisy.  I’ll be glad when it eases up, probably after midnight at this rate!  Where is all this water going to go??

[wimblettben]

6 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

On the radar, it looks like two separate squall lines squeezed into a band about twenty miles apart and the rain falling from the area between is like being in the centre of a heavy thunderstorm.  I can hear it falling onto the roof, the car and the ground outside and it’s quite something to listen to it….very noisy.  I’ll be glad when it eases up, probably after midnight at this rate!  Where is all this water going to go??

I think that rain had produced some lightning earlier as I saw some very infrequent distant flashes to my south or southeast about an hour or so ago.

[Sky Full]

18 minutes ago, Crepuscular Ray said:

A pretty decent day here, too, apart from the brief torrential downpour as I walked from the surgery to the car park after having my flu and covid jabs. 

Thanks for the warning! It’s just about to hit here.

You’re going to get a soaking!

[Sky Full]

7 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

I think that rain had produced some lightning earlier as I saw some very infrequent distant flashes to my south or southeast about an hour or so ago.

I thought I caught a flash through the window (not that kind of flash!) but we were watching that film about Dream Alliance - the valleys racehorse - and we were glued to the set.  Didn’t hear any thunder or see any other signs of lightning but it wouldn’t surprise me if some popped anywhere along this line.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Sky Full

[Sky Full]

More intense showers this morning but no reports of flooding or disruption locally.  Looks like the rest of the day will have some sunshine and scattered heavy showers.  It’s also an unsettled outlook for the rest of the week but no sign of really cold weather yet.  Still got a surprising number of wasps, flies and slugs about so it must be mild!

[snefnug]

After a very misty foggy murkylurky start to the day, over the tops to Oswestry then Llangollen no joke, it’s now a blooming lovely sunny  morning, so excellent for husband to finish lime rendering outside north facing wall and for me, dry dog walking day, for a change…..

[Crepuscular Ray]

As above, what an unexpectedly lovely day, pottering in the garden in shorts and a tee-shirt. 

[Sky Full]

More pulses of heavy rain continue move north-east across Wales this morning, a pattern we have seen for several days now.  Even my otherwise totally disinterested better-half has commented on the growing intensity of the showers moving in off the Atlantic, asking me why our rain is suddenly so tropical in nature!  I’m afraid I couldn’t give a very convincing answer, but I guess it’s an increasing ability of the atmosphere to hold more water vapour as the climate gradually warms, also causing more and more turbulence.  Can anyone give me a more scientific answer to this question?  Or are we simply experiencing a relatively wet Autumn which is not actually very unusual?

[Marcus_surfer]

3 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

More pulses of heavy rain continue move north-east across Wales this morning, a pattern we have seen for several days now.  Even my otherwise totally disinterested better-half has commented on the growing intensity of the showers moving in off the Atlantic, asking me why our rain is suddenly so tropical in nature!  I’m afraid I couldn’t give a very convincing answer, but I guess it’s an increasing ability of the atmosphere to hold more water vapour as the climate gradually warms, also causing more and more turbulence.  Can anyone give me a more scientific answer to this question?  Or are we simply experiencing a relatively wet Autumn which is not actually very unusual?

Cold air aloft...warmer sea temperatures creating the heavier showers? Just a guess

[Sky Full]

All the models are currently forecasting a deep low pressure system arriving in the south-western approaches by next Thursday.  This is likely to become a named storm and is currently shown to generate some damaging gusts - even the UKMO is predicting 100mph gusts in the channel next week…..

This image shows the system circulating around south Wales so we might not be affected by the worst of the storm but it’s worth keeping an eye on it - if it tracks further north and deepens it could leave a trail of destruction. .  Hopefully, it will move south and moderate…

[Sky Full]

A yellow warning for damaging winds on Thursday has now been issued by the MetO and the storm has been given a name - Ciaran.

[Buzz]

I'm so very tired of rain at the moment ...............

[Wetterfrosch]

9 hours ago, Sky Full said:

A yellow warning for damaging winds on Thursday has now been issued by the MetO and the storm has been given a name - Ciaran.

I'm amazed it's only a yellow but I guess it's because it is still four days out from today and details can change by then. Given that currently the various models are pretty much in agreement of the track I'm quite sure it will be turning into at least an amber warning either tomorrow or Tuesday. Feel relieved to hopefully be spared the worst myself but sorry for all those in it's path. Hopefully our village bonfire night on Friday will go ahead before the next deep low rattles in. Will be interesting to see how low the barometer will fall.

[Sky Full]

10 hours ago, Wetterfrosch said:

I'm amazed it's only a yellow but I guess it's because it is still four days out from today and details can change by then. Given that currently the various models are pretty much in agreement of the track I'm quite sure it will be turning into at least an amber warning either tomorrow or Tuesday. Feel relieved to hopefully be spared the worst myself but sorry for all those in it's path. Hopefully our village bonfire night on Friday will go ahead before the next deep low rattles in. Will be interesting to see how low the barometer will fall.

We are indeed forecast to be lucky as things stand.  The tip of Cornwall, the south coast, the Channel Islands and East Kent are currently in the firing line for what could be severe storm force winds.  There is another system barrelling across the Atlantic immediately after Ciaran but this looks like it’s targeting Northern France according to the models.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Sky Full

[Wetterfrosch]

The updated warning may have brought me into the warning area but all the computer output has in store for my area is a brief period of up to 44 mph early Thursday morning and Saturday's low even less, not surprising considering the southerly track hitting France and Spain for a change. Rain may be more of an issue at that rate. Have a very happy and meaningful Calan Gaeaf/Halloween all!!!