Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Matt H]

10 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Not sure if it's me but I don't really like the sound of the high so close to the UK?

From yesterday's UKMO is this a upgrade?

GFS and UKMO are similar at t144 and the GFS is lining up a stonker in FI beyond then so I think all is good for now.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS into the scrapper. 

Its to vertical with the pressure build. Its not going to happen like that.

I was just starting to enjoy it 

[Weather-history]

I don't know if its wetterzentrale scaling at the 500hpa level  but that chart is totally  bonkers!

[Borei]

1 hour ago, Jason M said:

At present I think its the other way round. I think this forum is seeing something the METO is not. Other than a couple of weeks of rather cold weather there isn't any deep freeze showing in the charts at present and they can't forecast something that isn't supported by evidence. There are some nice looking easterlies but they are fairly tame as they are generally sourced from a long way south and well within the envelope of bog standard UK winter weather.

Some will see rain, some will see snow (or already have), but nothing significantly cold. 

GEFS are okay but a bit meh in all honesty. We are roughly where we are two days ago and whilst in the game (makes a change :-)) the result remains in the balance!

 

 

If you mean by 'deep freeze' air temperatures of -10 or below, then yes. 

But the rest of your post seems to fly in the face of reality. We face a solid 10-14 days at least of temperatures below normal. We also persistently see synoptics that are very unusual.

In those key senses, I simply can't see what's 'meh' about current model output. I also find it a contradiction in terms to describe modelled easterlies as part of a 'bog standard; UK winter. 

We are set for an unusually long period of temperatures below, or significantly below, normal in the heart of winter. That, in itself, is very unusual, and long may it continue. We may not get a 'deep freeze' but there are plenty of other cold scenarios being modelled which collectively represent the opposite of our usual fayre. 

 

 

 

[winterof79]

 

BOSH....fetch shovel mother

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by winterof79

[Mucka]

Bank!

This is what we want. The high further N & W to allow a trough to drop from the N and the Arctic flood gates to open

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I don't know if its wetterzentrale scaling at the 500hpa level  but that chart is totally  bonkers!

Can you explain why Bonkers WH ? Cheers!

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS into the scrapper. 

Its to vertical with the pressure build. Its not going to happen like that.

I agree, however imo the solution of ridge breaking, then retrogression & a northeasterly component 180-220h is still favoured atm.

[sheikhy]

Crazy crazy gfs!!ukmo looks similar at 144 hours!!before that winds east north easterly and snow for a lucky few!!and that just the starter

[Weathizard]

Trigger low moving SSW, very unusual, brings in warm sectors if this were to happen you’d want it to clear and wrap around the colder uppers buildingfrom our NE, seems unlikely though the way that low acts between 168 and 192 doesn’t look right to me.

[Tim Bland]

I’m so used to seeing lows this deep go west to east I couldn’t believe what I was seeing when this started started heading south! 

[chris55]

Important that the high on the UKMO doesn’t allow to much mild Atlantic air over the top before it hopefully retrogresses.

GFS has a better angle and it does bugger off north thankfully. Not sure how UKMO would evolve TBH.

UKMO showing how we could possibly bring the Atlantic back. Only A single run and will be interesting to see how ECM handles the 120-168 period.

 

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Borei said:

If you mean by 'deep freeze' air temperatures of -10 or below, then yes. 

But the rest of your post seems to fly in the face of reality. We face a solid 10-14 days at least of temperatures below normal. We also persistently see synoptics that are very unusual.

In those key senses, I simply can't see what's 'meh' about current model output. I also find it a contradiction in terms to describe modelled easterlies as part of a 'bog standard; UK winter. 

We are set for an unusually long period of temperatures below, or significantly below, normal in the heart of winter. That, in itself, is very unusual, and long may it continue. We may not get a 'deep freeze' but there are plenty of other cold scenarios being modelled which collectively represent the opposite of our usual fayre. 

 

 

 

Then your reality is different to mine and we can leave it there 

[lorenzo]

The filament at 120 > 156 really launches things at Greenland, last night 18z was similar.. General direction of travel reinforcing the blocking is there. A few different nuances ahead yet, that looks like a delicately poised solution.

[Howie]

I don't think the low will move south west like that, strange evolution 

[Daniel*]

I think GFS 12z drunk a red bull not finding this evolution believable.

[nick sussex]

Looks like the models are latching onto a quicker retrogression of the high.

So any easterly is likely to be short lived and mainly effect more southern and se areas before the high goes nw and a shortwave drops s/se.

Preferably more se so as not to risk a more west based negative NAO .

Ironically there’s more deeper cold showing up to the east ne on this GFS run so any easterly would have had more bite.

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by nick sussex

[That ECM]

If I was going to draw a block it would be shaped. 

A big difference on this run is NE heights. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I think GFS 12z drunk a red bull not finding this evolution believable.

I actual think this will be the most flavoured output going forward. 

[Tim Bland]

12 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The first one is at 12pm, the 2nd at 6pm, a natural progression of the front.

Look again...it’s the 12z run from GFS Not fir the time period 12pm.  Both are for Weds eve. I was showing the most northerly point each one goes and ECM is much further north ..

[steveinsussex]

1 minute ago, DCee said:

I actual think this will be the most flavoured output going forward. 

mmmm tasty

[SMU]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I agree, however imo the solution of ridge breaking, then retrogression & a northeasterly component 180-220h is still favoured atm.

Yes but the core will be well East of that & curvature of the isolines SSW through Scandi...

[Geordiesnow]

Interesting runs, whilst the uppers continue to be quite poor though, it is frustrating also. Minor hints we may see some cold from the Arctic perhaps coming into play but that's a long way off. 

Either way, no Atlantic weather on the menu for a good while and that makes a nice change heading into January. 

[nick sussex]

Quite remarkable pattern showing up at T228hrs .

You can follow the isobars from Russia to Newfoundland , talk about reverse zonality !

 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, DCee said:

I actual think this will be the most flavoured output going forward. 

Why it all happens so rapidly? Compare to earlier GEFS mean.