Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

More of Europe and Russia turning colder in extended EPS that’s what we want to see. Very prolonged cold signal for us. 

A very prominent surface inversion may develop D6-12. Look at the GEM 1pm T2m temps. This combined with scattered precipitation will give a very wintry feel.

[Howie]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

More of Europe and Russia turning colder in extended EPS that’s what we want to see. Very prolonged cold signal for us. 

This looks really similar to what the ec 46 was showing around 3rd week of December 

[Chesil View]

58 minutes ago, offerman said:

Spot on sleety, I have noticed that about them too. Good point ! 

The most important word in that update is the word ‘currently’’ it gives them a get out should a beasterly appear down the line as a result of an SSW.

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

A very prominent surface inversion may develop D6-12. Look at the GEM 1pm T2m temps. This combined with scattered precipitation will give a very wintry feel.

I think ECM is too mild with its currents forecasts I know the North Sea is warmer than average but hardly looking like a screaming easterly, and well there will probably be much greater moderation for eastern coasts. Take today much of country barely above freezing surface cold develops quickly. 

[Jason M]

1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

A genuine question to you knowledgeable folks out there The model output at the moment is fantastic to say the least however my question is with the output we are seeing why is the UK but not forecasting that in their extended outlook are they saying something that we are not with all the data they have at their disposal I would have thought they would of picked all this up yet in their extended that are going with no significant cold.

At present I think its the other way round. I think this forum is seeing something the METO is not. Other than a couple of weeks of rather cold weather there isn't any deep freeze showing in the charts at present and they can't forecast something that isn't supported by evidence. There are some nice looking easterlies but they are fairly tame as they are generally sourced from a long way south and well within the envelope of bog standard UK winter weather.

Some will see rain, some will see snow (or already have), but nothing significantly cold. 

GEFS are okay but a bit meh in all honesty. We are roughly where we are two days ago and whilst in the game (makes a change :-)) the result remains in the balance!

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I think ECM is too mild with its currents forecasts I know the North Sea is warmer than average but hardly looking like a screaming easterly, and well there will probably be much greater moderation for eastern coasts. Take today much of country barely above freezing surface cold develops quickly. 

Agree with this. The concensus in the output would develop an inversion, shallower on the east coast. Temp forecasts will often be too high as models struggle with these atmospheric feedback loops & an affect of gettng snow forecasts wrong. The cold would be improved though if any Southerly component to the Easterly was weakened. The ECMWF mean also provides opportunity for retrogression & a renewed easterly at D10 by judgement of the D10 mean.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[moorlander]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

More of Europe and Russia turning colder in extended EPS that’s what we want to see. Very prolonged cold signal for us. 

looking very interesting going forward. the potential for this winter is more than i could have hoped for

[danm]

19 minutes ago, Jason M said:

At present I think its the other way round. I think this forum is seeing something the METO is not. Other than a couple of weeks of rather cold weather there isn't any deep freeze showing in the charts at present and they can't forecast something that isn't supported by evidence. There are some nice looking easterlies but they are fairly tame as they are generally sourced from a long way south and well within the envelope of bog standard UK winter weather.

Some will see rain, some will see snow (or already have), but nothing significantly cold. 

GEFS are okay but a bit meh in all honesty. We are roughly where we are two days ago and whilst in the game (makes a change :-)) the result remains in the balance!

 

 

I’m not sure if you’re just ultra, ultra pragmatic or incredibly negative. Not worked it out yet !

As others have said many times, no there isn’t “deep” cold showing in the next 7 days, but it will still be cold enough at times for snow this week, as evidenced last night, and the potential going into the new year is loaded in our favour. It’s always been stated that this week is possibly just the starter before things could improve even further. It may not turn out that way obviously, but unless you were expecting a deep freeze this week I don’t think anyone of the cold/snow persuasion should be negative this week and going into the new year. Plenty to keep us very interested. 

[SteveB]

8 minutes ago, danm said:

I’m not sure if you’re just ultra, ultra pragmatic or incredibly negative. Not worked it out yet !

As others have said many times, no there isn’t “deep” cold showing in the next 7 days, but it will still be cold enough at times for snow this week, as evidenced last night, and the potential going into the new year is loaded in our favour. It’s always been stated that this week is possibly just the starter before things could improve even further. It may not turn out that way obviously, but unless you were expecting a deep freeze this week I don’t think anyone of the cold/snow persuasion should be negative this week and going into the new year. Plenty to keep us very interested. 

I would hazard a guess, he hasn't seen any snow. 

[Updated_Weather]

Whose ready for the 12z?

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, danm said:

I’m not sure if you’re just ultra, ultra pragmatic or incredibly negative. Not worked it out yet !

As others have said many times, no there isn’t “deep” cold showing in the next 7 days, but it will still be cold enough at times for snow this week, as evidenced last night, and the potential going into the new year is loaded in our favour. It’s always been stated that this week is possibly just the starter before things could improve even further. It may not turn out that way obviously, but unless you were expecting a deep freeze this week I don’t think anyone of the cold/snow persuasion should be negative this week and going into the new year. Plenty to keep us very interested. 

 Pragmatic I hope. As soon as I see the beast I'll be ramping with the best of them. 

[Skullzrulerz]

16 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Whose ready for the 12z?

I think we all are

Even NetWeather had some maintenance to control it lol 

[snowice]

Put in extra ram I think it will be needed after the 12z

[Eskimo]

Yes, I saw my life flash before my eyes when I saw the forum was down for maintenance. Would have meant I would have had to talk to my partner. 

System slightly further north for Wednesday.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Eskimo

[Battleground Snow]

Icon getting a bit close to a UK high for my liking, it is quite a bit different from its 00z run so maybe no need to worry yet.

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon getting a bit close to a UK high for my liking, it is quite a bit different from its 00z run so maybe no need to worry yet.

 

Maybe a theme in the coming days?high closer and stronger to the northwest of the uk before retrogressing to greenland

[nick sussex]

It’s time to play chase that shortwave ! 

The GFS tracks that se and then through the Channel . It’s further north than the earlier run but much further south than what was shown earlier on BBC forecasts .

The GFS has a mainly south of the M4 area of precip with snow on the northern flank .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon getting a bit close to a UK high for my liking, it is quite a bit different from its 00z run so maybe no need to worry yet.

 

hope it's wrong, the Jan 2021 WIB uk high,

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Maybe a theme in the coming days?high closer and stronger to the northwest of the uk before retrogressing to greenland

Yes, I think it would have went on to regress with the low pressure to our south

[SMU]

Significant upgrade to the uppers & cold on GFS @72 as we allign to a more direct Northerly flow !

Also the amplitude of the wave at 90 on the jet reaches a higher peak over Greenland 

All great news to start with...

 

[ancientsolar]

seems to be troughs galore on this GFS   How likely are they to be very heavy ? 
 ~

[tight isobar]

Gfs continues with it shouts for pop up features.. and signs of.. for surprise snowfalls almost anywhere.. and let’s not forget here .. this is likely chicken feed to what seems to be evolving... as we ebb into January.... !!!!

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Significant upgrade to the uppers & cold on GFS @72 as we allign to a more direct Northerly flow !

Also the amplitude of the wave at 90 on the jet reaches a higher peak over Greenland 

All great news to start with...

 

Not sure about the uppers but here is Ukmo for T72. Looks ok to me.

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Significant upgrade to the uppers & cold on GFS @72 as we allign to a more direct Northerly flow !

Also the amplitude of the wave at 90 on the jet reaches a higher peak over Greenland 

All great news to start with...

 

Theta values are a bit lower as well at around 10.

[pureasthedriven]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hope it's wrong, the Jan 2021 WIB uk high,

Or the Jan 2021 MetO UK high...