Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I’ll manage ..... his professional qualifications clearly don’t match his taste in people, 

anyway, some owe Exeter an apology over slp levels in the new year ......  most of the country will be higher than usual 

 

Don’t think they’re owed everything they showed a U.K. high on their day 10 forecast. We are not going to see a UK high.

Anyway I notice models are upgrading the cold this week which is nice to see Increasing wintry possibilities to lower levels.

[West is Best]

Another word of warning about this easterly. The risks inherent in the evolution from this:

to this:

 

... are considerable.

 

It doesn't mean it won't happen but 'nailed on' it most certainly isn't. We await with bated.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looking fabulous at 186 - cold dropping to our north east with growing heights to our north west.  Classic!

  

For balance here's the GFSP at 162

[West is Best]

Just now, Daniel* said:

they showed a U.K. high on their day 10 forecast. We are not going to see a UK high.

 

 

A very rash remark indeed for the reasons I have just posted. I would say it's 60:40 we will indeed have a toppling high.

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

For balance here's the GFSP at 162

Not to dissimilar in the broad scale of things. 

Both will retorgoress towards Greenland with a trough dropping through scandi bringing much colder uppers. 

[fromey]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ll manage ..... his professional qualifications clearly don’t match his choice of followers ! 

anyway, some owe Exeter an apology over slp levels in the new year ......  most of the country will be higher than usual 

 

Really this what they were showing.

I believe that’s a high over the Uk, the charts don’t look like that.

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

A very rash remark indeed for the reasons I have just posted. I would say it's 60:40 we will indeed have a toppling high.

Funny how the 06z you showed is ‘snowier’... with a keener easterly flow. And please provide evidence For this as I can’t see it myself.

[ALL ABOARD]

5 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

A very rash remark indeed for the reasons I have just posted. I would say it's 60:40 we will indeed have a toppling high.

Very interesting... 

Is this just a hunch or are you seeing models that we don't have access too? 

[frosty ground]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ll manage ..... his professional qualifications clearly don’t match his choice of followers ! 

anyway, some owe Exeter an apology over slp levels in the new year ......  most of the country will be higher than usual 

 

Not up to speed on current output but I assume there is a U.K. high in the output now?

[seabreeze86]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Funny how the 06z you showed is ‘snowier’... with a keener easterly flow. And please provide evidence For this as I can’t see it myself.

A UK high does not look on the cards at all to me there’s to much energy to the south. A toppling high looks even less likely.The 6z is stunning so far 

Edited December 28, 2020 by seabreeze86

[georgiedre]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not up to speed on current output but I assume there is a U.K. high in the output now?

Nope but it could lead to one apparently.. it was some video the met released saying high pressure right above us in the new year

[Daniel*]

This run is synoptic perfection a classic in making.. deep cold moving in from our NE.

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not up to speed on current output but I assume there is a U.K. high in the output now?

No uk high at the moment 

[ALL ABOARD]

Yes huge UK high. 

Unfortunetly it's gone on holiday to Greenland though. 

 

This chart is as good as it gets. 

Look at that cold dropping through scandi

[winterof79]

If anything the high is retrogressing 

Or toppling backward

[sparky1972]

good morning all, nice to see a certain ammount of positivity in here so far today, although i am very very unwhelmed from a imby perspective as its not forecast to get any colder than what it is currently and more rain than snow forecast, lol, here is hoping for a day of upgrades in the short and longer term, keep up the good work guys, it does make fasinating reading whatever the outcome.

[seabreeze86]

Lack of cold to the east is a thing of the past this is a stunning run. Probably won’t end up like this so just enjoy it 

[Griff]

Now I'm not saying in 8 days this will happen... The gfsp is... 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Griff

[Jason H]

1 minute ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yes huge UK high. 

Unfortunetly it's gone on holiday to Greenland though. 

 

This chart is as good as it gets. 

Look at that cold dropping through scandi

I think somebody once said on here, that a Greenland High is a thing of pure beauty when it sits there directing traffic from the Pole/North East. That is a beautiful chart for lovers of cold and snow and a text book example of "directing traffic". But this scenario is still way out in the future, far out of the reliable time-frames. It's good to see however and the longer term signals are definitely for cold.

[West is Best]

A deep freeze 6z run with the first signs of proper cold pooling in Europe: something which has been remarkably lacking in recent years (climate change):

 

I still think the evolution to this however looks precarious and I urge caution for everyone's sanity.

 

[Met4Cast]

21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Unless you’re blocked by him ....... (there are lots of us )

Yup.. he blocks people just for LIKING the tweets of someone who has disagreed with him, even if it was politely. Very, very bizarre. 

My idea of the pattern relaxing as we go through the first week of January is looking decidedly wrong now.. If anything the pattern begins to intensify through the first week across all the latest guidance. The GFS 06z shows us a clear & easy route to proper cold.

Griceland ridge > Griceland block > Retrogression to a Greenland block > Scandi trough > Cold.

This is BEFORE any SSW...

[Catacol]

Jan 7 - zero hour perhaps up top in the Strat (tbc...). Meanwhile, down in the trop, the cold is lining up....

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

Really this what they were showing.

I believe that’s a high over the Uk, the charts don’t look like that.

That’s a chart from the ec clusters - nothing to do with the met office 

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Not up to speed on current output but I assume there is a U.K. high in the output now?

anyone taking a chart beyond a week as anything other than a guide isn’t using them properly 

the worded forecast was ‘signs for high pressure to be moving in’ from the west/southwest and be more evident in the north and west 

It’s far from the disaster it was being painted middle last week on here 

[Matt H]

I can’t find one model showing a classic UK high in the new year, I’ll keep trying though.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[MJB]

Cracking set up from GFS 6z , let's see where it sits in the ENS before we crack open the champagne , good to see nevertheless