Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[SLEETY]

thats the 

1 minute ago, danm said:

Commenting is fine, but concern about it possibly picking up a new trend is somewhat premature. A model that is run four times a day will churn out all sorts in FI.

the problem is people comment on. the run in fl like its going to verify exactly as shown,which is never,and is very misleading to newbies.Look at that post by weather history of day 10 charts by the models and the actualy reality,FAILURE by all of them,not even close any of them.

[chionomaniac]

Just started a cold spell discussion thread for those posts not suitable for here or banter

 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Just started a cold spell discussion thread for those posts not suitable for here or banter

 

Is this to talk about current conditions or short term snow talk mate? 

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Is this to talk about current conditions or short term snow talk mate? 

Both

[Anthony Burden]

GFS again keen on the idea of low pressure attacking the west/ southwest in fantasy island.

could be a very interesting scenario with pressure remaining high to the north.

Blizzards on the agenda.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Control going down a similar route to the op- maybe a tad better. However if this is the path we go, we need to pull that Atlantic trough further SE...otherwise it'll draw mild southerlies up like on the op

Edited December 27, 2020 by CreweCold

[Valleyboy]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Control going down a similar route to the op- maybe a tad better. However if this is the path we go, we need to pull that Atlantic trough further SE...otherwise it'll draw mild southerlies up like on the op

Looks perfectly positioned.

[ScottSnow]

40 minutes ago, Craigers said:

This would be incredible with the high north sea temps. Way better convection chances compared to the BFTE 2018 setup. 

I think it would be cold rain apart from inland at height going off the models predicted 850 temps and previous experience.
Looking at the models I feel we may have to bear a week or so of milder temps before a renewed bout of cold from the north east.

When I say mild not excessively mild but I feel we may have an incursion of milder weather especially in the south. By mid month I feel that the cold pool n East Siberia/East Asia will have moved westwards by the dissolution or reorientation of the Russian High and that will allow us to tap into a much colder pool of air. We are starting to see this week n the later stages of recent GFS runs.

At least it is interesting model watching and there should be lots of opportunities for colder conditions and snow moving forward.

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Snow White

[danm]

1 minute ago, Snow White said:

I think it would be cold rain apart from inland at height going off the models predicted 850 temps and previous experience.
Looking at the models I feel we may have to bear a week or so of milder temps before a renewed bout of cold from the north east.

When I say mild not excessively mild but I feel we may have an incursion of milder weather especially in the south. By mid month I feel that the cold pool n East Siberia/East Asia will have moved westwards by the dissolution or reorientation of the Russian High and that will allow us to tap into a much colder pool of air.

At least it is interesting model watching and there should be lots of opportunities for colder conditions and snow moving forward.

 

Why would we need an incursion of milder air to achieve this? 

[Scott Ingham]

The GFSP is one of the strangest runs ive ever looked at.

Low pressure after low pressure train from the eastern seaboard brushing the south coast while still in -5 and -6 upper temperatures due to the jet being pushed rediculously south and no vortex anywhere in sight!!

Bizarre!

Anyone hazard a guess at ground conditions?

[Stu_London]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

The GFSP is one of the strangest runs ive ever looked at.

Low pressure after low pressure train from the eastern seaboard brushing the south coast while still in -5 and -6 upper temperatures due to the jet being pushed rediculously south and no vortex anywhere in sight!!

Bizarre!

Anyone hazard a guess at ground conditions?

Given that even though it is the dead of night now and we had a frost earlier and it is now raining where I am - it will probably be rain

[Cheshire Freeze]

With the progression seen on the GFS op and control, it becomes a race to shift the vortex core over to the Siberian side. If it happens fast enough then the HP will not sink SE ala GFS op as low heights filter around the E flank .

Control is a bit faster than the op run at getting that vortex core E

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The GFSP is one of the strangest runs ive ever looked at.

Low pressure after low pressure train from the eastern seaboard brushing the south coast while still in -5 and -6 upper temperatures due to the jet being pushed rediculously south and no vortex anywhere in sight!!

Bizarre!

Anyone hazard a guess at ground conditions?

Rain (unless there’s a breeze off of the continent)

[Valleyboy]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The GFSP is one of the strangest runs ive ever looked at.

Low pressure after low pressure train from the eastern seaboard brushing the south coast while still in -5 and -6 upper temperatures due to the jet being pushed rediculously south and no vortex anywhere in sight!!

Bizarre!

Anyone hazard a guess at ground conditions?

We would probably have imported colder air by then so 2 - 3 degrees daytime max.  The lows could help bring in colder easterlies, so it is difficult to read so far out. You can’t compare it to today’s meh air flow that is still producing rain showers.  Different scenario.  I would suggest it would be snow.

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Given that even though it is the dead of night now and we had a frost earlier and it is now raining where I am - it will probably be rain

Hahaha im not so sure come then under lower uppers 10 days of below average temperatures and dps off the continent. Have you seen the run ive never seen anything like it!

[ScottSnow]

7 minutes ago, danm said:

Why would we need an incursion of milder air to achieve this? 

We may not and hopefully won’t see that but IMO the cold air from East Asia needs to move westwards. This most likely will not happen until mid month at the earliest with the predicted displacement/split to the vortex. We may see the incursions of milder air until the pattern reloads and we then have a proper pool of cold air to tap into.

We see this as at the end of the 18z with much colder air flooding south westwards from Siberia and this was a pattern on earlier runs.

Scotland may stay on the cold side throughout but looking at the models that is what I think may happen.

Also if it does happen  places may see snow as the milder air hits the cold in battleground type scenarios.

[Cheshire Freeze]

This shows the progression of the vortex through FI- You can clearly see the shift E. 

Control heads towards boomtown-

Edited December 27, 2020 by CreweCold

[Battleground Snow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This shows the progression of the vortex through FI- You can clearly see the shift E. 

There are a few stunners around the 300 hour mark, some serious cold pools on some of them, hopefully see a few more in the morning including the OP

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS are a stonker of epic proportions, only been through first 10 mind but a boat load of stonking big Greenland highs. EPS graaph also better than 0z - gfs 18z strat not as good though.

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This shows the progression of the vortex through FI- You can clearly see the shift E. 

Control heads towards boomtown-

Seriously good chart that.

Very cold air about to drop South West! Yes Please Mr Control!

[Day_9]

54 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The GFSP is one of the strangest runs ive ever looked at.

Low pressure after low pressure train from the eastern seaboard brushing the south coast while still in -5 and -6 upper temperatures due to the jet being pushed rediculously south and no vortex anywhere in sight!!

Bizarre!

Anyone hazard a guess at ground conditions?

Meters of snow 

[andy989]

Well marginal uppers or not, I have thick flakes here in NW Wales right now. It did initially start pretty wet but quickly turned. 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by andy989

[The Enforcer]

5 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Well marginal uppers or not, I have thick flakes here in NW Wales right now. It did initially start pretty wet but quickly turned. 

 

 

Am I right in thinking you are around 90-100metres ASL there?

[Kentspur]

GFS op was a clear mild outlier as expected ensembles look fantastic-these for my location NW Kent

[smhouston]

8 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

GFS op was a clear mild outlier as expected ensembles look fantastic-these for my location NW Kent

Sorry but that's not a mild outlier with it having support from other ensembles 

Not too concerning yet though. Until this pattern starts setting itself there will be many variations being thrown up