Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Updated_Weather]

One to watch

[Cheshire Freeze]

I had a crisis of confidence last night. I saw the runs getting flatter and flatter and feared the worst...how many times have we been there over the years. USUALLY when the modelling gets flatter by the run it's curtains- that applies maybe 90-95% of the time. 

I've known since October where we SHOULD be headed throughout winter but I was filled with trepidation over what may happen model wise over the coming days.

BUT, wow...what model runs today. 

There is a big clue as to where we could be headed with the encroaching deep cold way to the NE- it's heading closer and closer every run. It couldn't...could it?!

[Eskimo]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I had a crisis of confidence last night. I saw the runs getting flatter and flatter and feared the worst...how many times have we been there over the years. USUALLY when the modelling gets flatter by the run it's curtains- that applies maybe 90-95% of the time. 

I've known since October where we SHOULD be headed throughout winter but I was filled with trepidation over what may happen model wise over the coming days.

BUT, wow...what model runs today. 

There is a big clue as to where we could be headed with the encroaching deep cold way to the NE- it's heading closer and closer every run. It couldn't...could it?!

Well done Crewe, now you've gone and bloody jinxed it! 

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Did you never jump on a rollercoaster as a child!

Fair enough opinion of course and it's actually very correct but its not what this gaff is all about! 

Not worried about what tomorrow brings when you could bang your head against a wall on the 18z's! 

 

Anyway back to these models and for me that ecm easterly is gaining enough support now to think it might now need to be looked at a bit more closely!

Has anyone ever done a comprehensive study on model accuracy. That would be interesting! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Well done Crewe, now you've gone and bloody jinxed it! 

Oh believe me, my feet are still well and truly planted to the floor!

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I had a crisis of confidence last night. I saw the runs getting flatter and flatter and feared the worst...how many times have we been there over the years. USUALLY when the modelling gets flatter by the run it's curtains- that applies maybe 90-95% of the time. 

I've known since October where we SHOULD be headed throughout winter but I was filled with trepidation over what may happen model wise over the coming days.

BUT, wow...what model runs today. 

There is a big clue as to where we could be headed with the encroaching deep cold way to the NE- it's heading closer and closer every run. It couldn't...could it?!

Am happy to see we have you back on board Crewe!! Wouldnt be a cold spell without you on board mate! All systems go on high pressure to Iceland!

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I had a crisis of confidence last night. I saw the runs getting flatter and flatter and feared the worst...how many times have we been there over the years. USUALLY when the modelling gets flatter by the run it's curtains- that applies maybe 90-95% of the time. 

I've known since October where we SHOULD be headed throughout winter but I was filled with trepidation over what may happen model wise over the coming days.

BUT, wow...what model runs today. 

There is a big clue as to where we could be headed with the encroaching deep cold way to the NE- it's heading closer and closer every run. It couldn't...could it?!

If it happens, you have to promise to enjoy the heatwaves in summer!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

If it happens, you have to promise to enjoy the heatwaves in summer!

Enjoy the heatwaves? I'd sacrifice my left testicle for a protracted severe wintry spell if I had to.

[Kasim Awan]

The snow system seems marginally east of latest Hi Res model output, good precipitation intensity. Parts of western low lying NW England (Merseyside area etc) could pick up a covering in the early hours. Harmonie is currently closest with the evolution but even that is 10-20 miles too far west.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Radiating Dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Has anyone ever done a comprehensive study on model accuracy. That would be interesting! 

Yes, all the models are ranked for accuracy and this is ongoing. Somebody will link to it (I don't have it to hand).

[Kentspur]

26 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

One to watch

Is this from the Met? Wheres the link? This is a lovely surprise if true I hardly ever see snow from bands that move in from the west/NW here in NW Kent

[Mike Poole]

So another nowcasting update, here’s the radar v the ICON-EU 18z round about now:

Again this suggests the initial system is further east than modelled, which could have big implications further south.  Similar to my post on the 12z EURO4.  I think this suggests the actual system will affect more of the UK than the cumulative snow fall chart on the ICON-EU T50:

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I had a crisis of confidence last night. I saw the runs getting flatter and flatter and feared the worst...how many times have we been there over the years. USUALLY when the modelling gets flatter by the run it's curtains- that applies maybe 90-95% of the time. 

I've known since October where we SHOULD be headed throughout winter but I was filled with trepidation over what may happen model wise over the coming days.

BUT, wow...what model runs today. 

There is a big clue as to where we could be headed with the encroaching deep cold way to the NE- it's heading closer and closer every run. It couldn't...could it?!

I'm surprised you were getting cold feet crew..These little changes for better or worse will crop up occasionally,but the prognosis was still beneficial...Its only a matter of time before these models start to pick up on those encouraging developments in the strat..But as it stands...kudos to you,because I think you were one of the first to state some time ago,that this Winter looks much more interesting,and if I recall...last year you had know appetite for anything wintry at all..so far so good mate..give me mystic megs number and I will by you a drink...lol just joking...

[Kasim Awan]

Support for a cold spell which significantly deviates from the climatology is the highest it has been since February 2018. Confidence atm is significantly higher than average. Keep an eye out for models toying with the next wave period which may be reflected in added amplification & a trough diving east, potentially funnelling in colder uppers around the 10th of January. Don't forget, the signal for polar jet energy hasn't gone away, however given the extreme mid high latitude blocking signal, it is more likely to be expressed in further cold pooling, amplification etc as the low heights associated with the polar jet shunt east. I expect tomorrow's runs to start to explore these options.

As we are in a period of jet splitting I suspect the polar jet will also be shunted south adding to the meridional pattern, this to an extent is occurring between 120 and 182 hours. The full extent of this potential isn't resolved either; this providing significant snow event potential in the medium range. In the current modelled synoptic pattern 144-188 hrs, for which there is high confidence in, both mechanisms of dealing with this polar jet energy mentioned above would be not only credible synoptic evolutions but also the most logic in the D6-12 frame. Both options keep us in significant cold & wintry weather.

Therefore, I would make the comment that probability of a sustained cold pattern is also unusually high; this is certainly no easily eroded amplification. Keep an eye on ideas re renewed bouts of amplification into January & under a sustained cold pool this could = seriously cold temperatures into Jan. As many have spoken about, the background signals (EAMT, AM, Strat disconnect etc), strongly favour additional meridional behaviour well into January. This also adds weight to the idea of a sustained meridional pattern.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[chionomaniac]

Right. I just wasted 15 minutes of my life deleting off topic posts on here. If you can’t see your post then you are one of the culprits. Use regionals and banter threads please. More than happy to prevent anyone from posting in here if it means I don’t have to waste another 15 mins

[I remember Atlantic 252]

tomorrow nights chances on 18Z

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

tomorrow nights chances on 18Z

Yes,noticed the 18z ICON was showing a similar track.

[Paul]

Latest UKV is below, as per the rumour mill. Subscribers to Netweather Extra have access to this model, so no need to rely on he said, she said style twitter snippets!

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Latest UKV is below, as per the rumour mill. Subscribers to Netweather Extra have access to this model, so no need to rely on he said, she said style twitter snippets!

Great im on night shifts this week and work a lot of my shifts outdoors 3am I'll be checking outside to see if this from UKV is correct so rain sleet or snow? Hmmmm.. interesting!

[iowpompeylee]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,noticed the 18z ICON was showing a similar track.

Where do people rate the ICON at short range? That graphic has a snowfall for the south coast! Wouldn’t go amiss in the snow barren south coast! 

Edited December 27, 2020 by iowpompeylee

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, iowpompeylee said:

Where do people rate the ICON at short range? That graphic has a snowfall for the south coast! Wouldn’t go amiss in the snow barren south! 

In my opinion it isn’t the best of short range models, and has probably got this one wrong as it will be some way further east, might help on south coast mind.  

[Battleground Snow]

No drama's so far on the GFS here at 135, looks good and should be another stellar run as we head in to FI

 

[Allseasons-Si]

If anyone doesn't know this rain/snow radar,then it's good to watch this animated one to determine where we are headed at a quick glance,snow being red.

Meteociel.fr - Radar de précipitations pluie et neige - Royaume-Uni/Irlande

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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La météo en temps réel et prévisions météo pour la France, Observations météo, modèles numériques et logiciels météo (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, GEM, AROME, ARPEGE, JMA)

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[I remember Atlantic 252]

feature moving S on 1st, but FI now

[Met4Cast]

The 18z is even faster with building heights to our north than the 12z was, and I thought that was progressive!